2 min Market Summary: 7 Nov 2018

Notable Moves

  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings at 7.01M vs expected 7.09M. Japanese Household Spending y/y at -1.6% vs expected 1.6%. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher with the 2-yr yield adding two basis points to 2.92% and the 10-yr yield increasing one basis point to 3.21%. In midterm elections, results will not be made clear until the early hours (EST), most polls show the Democrats regaining control of the House, while Republicans are expected to retain majority control of the Senate. USDJPY up 0.13%, $113.34.
  • German Final Services PMI at 54.7 vs expected 53.6. E.U. Final Services PMI at 53.7 vs expected 53.3. Euro up 0.30%, $1.1441. In Brexit, the Times reported that the Union is preparing to offer an “independent mechanism” which allows Britain to end a temporary customs arrangement with the bloc. While not a final solution, it will be enough to break the stalemate in negotiations, and grant a deal split by March next year. Sterling up 0.55%, $1.3114.
  • RBA shrugs off falling house prices, weak inflation to keep rates on hold at 1.5% (expected). On the flip side of weak inflation and falling house prices, the jobs market remains strong with the unemployment rate falling to 5%, the lowest level since early 2012, and the economy is growing in line with the RBA’s forecasts. The RBA retained an upbeat stance in its post decision statement noting: “Forecasts for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little.” Aussie up 0.44%, $0.7243.
  • N.Z. Employment Change q/q at 1.1% vs expected 0.5%. Unemployment Rate at 3.9% vs expected 4.5%. The fall was completely unexpected by economists, who had generally been forecasting a figure of about 4.5% and inevitably there will be questions as to whether this is a ‘rogue’ result, though Stats NZ has immediately defended the veracity of the data, saying they are “confident” of the result and by stating that large changes in the rate – both up and down – have occurred before, while labour market figures tend to lag other economic indicators. The number was particularly impressive because the participation rate rose 0.2% QoQ to 71.1 percent in the September quarter. Kiwi up 1.17%, $0.6740..
  • S&P 500 up 0.63%, 2,755.45. Nasdaq up 0.75%, 6,988.85. Nikkei up 1.14%, 22,147.75.
  • In earnings, results were mostly positive with CVS (CVS 77.90, +4.21) climbing 5.7% after it reported above-consensus profits. Eli Lilly (LLY 105.90, -4.24) also beat earnings estimates but lost -3.9%, while Booking Holdings (BKNG 1949.46, +78.34) gained 4.2% despite missing earnings estimates. Booking’s results were above its prior guidance, though. Health care company Mylan N.V. (MYL 36.43, +5.06) after it surged 16.1% after it reported better-than-expected earnings.
  • WTI crude dropped -1.5% to settle at $62.19/bbl after Trump granted temporary waivers on Monday to eight countries that import oil from Iran. The decision fueled an already weakening oil market that has seen crude prices decline nearly -20.0% from its recent four-year high in October. Despite the drop in crude, the oil-sensitive energy sector ticked higher by 0.3%, although it was down as much as -0.8% intraday.

 

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

After ‘Negligible’ Mining-Related Sales, AMD Launches 8 New ‘Blockchain Compute Solutions’

AMD, a California-based semiconductor manufacturer, has partnered with seven major tech companies to produce eight new cryptocurrency mining rigs. the firm has partnered with Sapphire, ASROCK, ASUS, MSI, Biostar, TUL and Rajintek to issue eight different rigs boasting “Ultimate stability,” “24/7 performance” and “Enterprise-level quality.” The price for the equipment has not yet been specified at press time. According to AMD’s notice, partnership will bring new blockchain compute solutions to the market, designed to meet the various aspirations of “innovative blockchain platforms.” The move comes just a week after AMD released its third quarter 2018 financial report, where the company stated that the “blockchain-related GPU sales in the third quarter were negligible.

Deloitte Partners With Startup for Gov’t-Level Blockchain Identity Management

“Big Four” accounting firm Deloitte has partnered with identity management company Attest Inc. to develop a blockchain-based digital identity system. The collaboration will purportedly develop a digital identity offering for government-compliant identifiers that can be used by Deloitte’s clients based on Attest’s existing products. The first product, Attest Wallet, is a cryptographically secured identity storage like a cryptocurrency wallet and it will reportedly enable users to store digital versions of government and business IDs in one place and control access to stored information. The second solution is called Attest Enterprise and comprises two application programming interfaces (APIs), which allow users to verify their identity, authorize third parties and provide consent to others to manage their data on their behalf.

Thai Revenue Department to Track Tax Payments Using Blockchain

The Thai Revenue Department has revealed its plans to track tax payments using blockchain and maсhine learning and the blockchain will be used to verify the validity of taxes paid and to speed up the tax refund process. Machine learning, in its turn, will help reveal tax fraud and create more transparency. Ekniti Nitithanprapas, the Revenue Department’s director-general who has also been International Economic Advisor of Fiscal Policy Office for the country’s Ministry of Finance since 2015, did not reveal when exactly the Department’s experiment with blockchain was going to start or which particular solutions it would use. Allegedly, blockchain feasibility studies would refer to processing digital IDs, IP registration management, and security, along with smart contracts.

2 min Market Summary: 5 Nov 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m inline at 0.2%. Non-Farm Employment Change at 250K vs expected 194K. Unemployment Rate inline at 3.7%.The strong jobs report validated labor market trends that will keep the Fed on a tightening path. The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 80.7% chance of another Fed rate hike in December, up from a 74.5% chance the previous day.  The Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield and benchmark 10-yr yield spiked seven basis points each to 2.91% and 3.21%. USDJPY up 0.43%, $113.20.
  • German Final Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 vs expected 52.3. E.U. Final Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 vs expected 52.1. Euro down -0.19%, $1.1387. U.K. Construction PMI at 53.2 vs expected 52.0. Sterling down -0.29%, $1.2973.
  • Canadian Employment Change at 11.2K vs expected 12.7K. Unemployment Rate at 5.8% vs expected 5.9%. Trade Balance at -0.4B vs expected 0.2B. WTI crude extended its recent downward trend, losing 0.9% to $63.20/bbl and reaching its lowest level since April.USDCAD up 0.17%, $1.3109.
  • Aussie Retail Sales m/m at 0.2% vs expected 0.3%. Aussie down -0.10%, $0.7199.
  • S&P 500 down -0.63%, 2,723.06. Nasdaq down -1.47%, 6,965.29. Nikkei up 2.56%, 22,243.66.
  • Stocks fell on Friday following conflicting U.S.-China trade reports and softer-than-expected sales guidance from Apple (AAPL 207.48, -14.74, -6.6%). Futures rallied overnight on a Bloomberg report indicating Trump asked his cabinet to draft a trade deal, but stocks eventually fell into negative territory after White House officials denied the report. Director of the United States National Economic Council Larry Kudlow confirmed in a CNBC interview that the cabinet was not asked by Trump to draw up a trade plan for China. Later, as stocks traded at session lows, Trump reiterated his belief to reporters that the U.S. will reach a trade deal with China. This led stocks to cut their losses in late afternoon trading.
  • In earnings, Apple raised some red flags after forecasting weaker-than-expected sales for the holiday quarter and announcing it will no longer provide unit-sales data for the iPhone, iPad, and Mac moving forward. The company did beat both top and bottom line estimates, EPS of $2.91 vs. $2.78 expected and revenues of $62.9 billion vs $61.46 billion expected. Exxon Mobil (XOM 81.95, +1.28, +1.6%) and Chevron (CVX 114.73, +3.56, +3.2%) rose after both reported above-consensus earnings.

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

Lawyer Invests $300 Million to Build Crypto City in the Nevada Desert
On Thursday, consumer protection lawyer Jeffrey Berns revealed plans to build a crypto city in the desert, claiming to have invested $300 million. He is the owner and CEO of Blockchains LLC, a company that bought more than 67,000 acres of land in northern Nevada for $170 million earlier this year. The comlex is meant to be a model for running a smart city with a decentralized blockchain infrastructure powering all interactions. The planned city will include residential units for thousands of people to live in, alongside shops for commerce. The area will also host an esports arena and a studio for creating music, movies and games. The company has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Nevada’s electricity public utility, NV Energy, agreeing to work together on energy projects powered by blockchain technology.

Israeli Projects Raised Over $600 Million via ICOs as of Q3 2018
According to report by cryptocurrency analytics firm One Alpha released Nov. 2., Israel-based projects have raised over $600 million through Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) as of the third quarter (Q3) of 2018. Per the research, 140 blockchain-focused companies in Israel have attracted $1.3 billion in investment, wherein more than 60 percent of companies and 88 percent of funds are ICO-related. From Q1– Q3 2018, Israeli startups raised $606 million through ICOs, wherein the largest number of ICOs took place during Q2, and Q1 was the most profitable, with $315 million raised through crypto-asset offerings. The largest ICOs in 2018 include EOS ($4.2 billion), Telegram ($1.7 billion), TaTaTu ($575 million), Dragon ($420 million), and tZero ($328 million). Per the report, ICOs constitute less than 10 percent of the global venture capital funding volume.

Lack of Diversity in Ethereum Smart Contracts Pose Risks to Whole Ecosystem
A lack of diversity of Ethereum (ETH) smart contracts poses a threat to Ethereum blockchain ecosystem, according to research by a group of analysts from Northeastern University and the University of Maryland released on Oct. 31. The paper, entitled “Analyzing Ethereum’s Contract Topology,” claims that most Ethereum smart contracts are “direct- or near-copies of other contracts,” which represents a potential risk if a copied smart contract contains a vulnerable or a buggy code. To date, Ethereum smart contracts are “three times more likely to be created by other contracts” than by users. Considering the low diversity of smart contracts on Ethereum as a potential risk to its whole blockchain ecosystem, the researchers mentioned that Ethereum has become a subject of “high-profile bugs” several times, resulting in over $170 million worth of cryptocurrency being frozen. Multiple implementations of “core contract functionality” on Ethereum would eventually provide “greater defense-in-depth to Ethereum.”

2 min Market Summary: 2 Nov 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 57.7 vs expected 59.0, the pullback is most likely a natural slowing of activity following what has been an impressive acceleration in manufacturing activity on a national level. That point notwithstanding, the deceleration in what has been one of the hottest sectors will feed into the peak-growth narrative that has been prominent of late. U.S. Treasuries ticked higher on Thursday, pushing the 2-yr yield down four basis points to 2.84% and the 10-yr yield down two basis points to 3.14%. USDJPY down -0.19%, $112.72.
  • There were no prints from the E.U., with French and Italian banks closed for holiday. Euro popped 0.80%, $1.1403. Bank of England unanimously voted to leave rates unchanged at 0.75% as expected on Thursday. Additionally, the central bank lowered its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by 0.1% in each year to 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The bank that it would need to step up the pace of interest rate rises in the years ahead if Theresa May was able to negotiate a smooth Brexit deal. Announcing the verdict of the bank’s latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the BoE said rate rises would still be “gradual”, but indicated that it would need to raise rates to 1.5% over the next three years to keep inflation under control. Three months ago, it suggested only one quarter-point increase was necessary over the same period to stop the economy from overheating. Mark Carney said the bank’s central forecast was that the economy would run hotter, pushing inflation higher and “as a consequence, a margin of excess demand emerges”. U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 51.1 vs expected 53.0. Sterling rallied 1.86%, $1.3003.
  • Dollar was broadly weak on Thursday, USDCAD down -0.49%, $1.3091. Aussie Trade Balance at 3.02B vs expected 1.71B. Aussie rallied 1.85%, $0.7205.
  • S&P 500 up 1.06%, 2,740.37. Nasdaq up 1.47%, 7,069.17. Nikkei down -1.06%, 21,687.65.
  • Favorable trade-related tweet by Trump lifted stocks from their early downtrend. The benchmark index briefly turned negative in the early going before comfortably trading in positive territory for most of the session. Trump tweeted that he had a “long and very good conversation” with President Xi, adding that discussions have been moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the upcoming G-20 summit in Argentina. According to a Reuters report, President Xi confirmed he spoke with Trump over the phone, expressing his willingness to meet with Trump at the G-20 summit, hopeful for a stable relationship with the U.S.
  • Music streaming platform Spotify (SPOT 141.16, -8.53) lost -5.7% after it reported a Q3 operating loss above guidance. The company also slightly lowered its fourth quarter monthly active user (MAU) and premium subscriber guidance, which did not bode well for a stock trading in a very competitive space.

 

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

NASDAQ Eyes Crypto Market Manipulation Use Case for Market Surveillance Tool
The world’s second-largest stock exchange NASDAQ says its market surveillance technology can “stamp out manipulation” in cryptocurrency markets. Regulators, brokers and exchanges have surveillance teams that monitor activity constantly and advanced technologies to help capture and analyze abusive behaviors including pump-and-dump schemes, insider trading, wash trading as well as spoofing and layering. The move comes as Bitcoin’s new-found stability temporarily takes emphasis off the idea that its markets were subject to foul play. NASDAQ saw the first cryptocurrency client for its SMARTS Market Surveillance solution come in April in the form of Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange operated by the Winklevoss twins.

Hong Kong Regulator Announces New Plans for Cryptocurrency Industry
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued two circulars on Thursday concerning cryptocurrency regulations. The first outlines a new approach which aims to bring virtual asset portfolio managers and distributors of virtual asset funds under its regulatory net, and the second document addresses intermediaries that distribute crypto funds. The SFC will impose licensing conditions on firms which manage or intend to manage portfolios investing in virtual assets and it will explore whether crypto exchanges “are suitable for regulation in the SFC regulatory sandbox.”

Anypay Provides Bitcoin Cash Invoices That Can Be Paid by Sending a Text Message
On Oct. 29, a Bitcoin Cash proponent used the Cointext wallet to purchase a croissant by text message at La Maison Navarre, a bakery in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. The shop uses the free Anypay point-of-sale application, which connects to the Cointext system to allow people to make purchases by SMS. The Anypay.global payment processor, a free point-of-sale application for retail merchants, has integrated Cointext payments within its invoice platform. If a user chooses to pay for a product with bitcoin cash, they will be introduced to Anypay’s invoice system, which displays a written BCH address, a QR code, and the ability to pay by text using an SMS-based code. The Cointext wallet is a light client for mobile phones that allows users to send BCH over standard text messaging services without an internet connection.

2 min Market Summary: 1 Nov 2018

  NOTABLE MOVES  
  • U.S. Employment Cost Index q/q at 0.8% vs expected 0.7%. Chicago PMI at 58.4 vs expected 60.1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 227K vs expected 188K. Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady on Wednesday at -0.10% (inline) and slightly trimmed its inflation forecasts as global trade frictions clouded the outlook, reinforcing views the central bank is in no rush to trim its massive stimulus. While ruling out a rate hike, Kuroda said the BOJ could take further steps to ease the strain on markets. The BOJ announced changes in its bond-buying operations, they will reduce the frequency of its bond buying operations in November and aim to have government bonds traded in the secondary market longer than they currently are. USDJPY down -0.20%, $112.86.
  • E.U. CPI Flash Estimate y/y inline at 2.2%. Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y inline at 1.1%. Euro down -0.26%, $1.1315. In Brexit, Sterling got bid after Dominic Raab suggested he expects a deal on the UK’s exit from the EU to be agreed within three weeks. The Brexit secretary told a committee of MPs he was happy to appear before them to give evidence “when a deal is finalised” and “currently expected 21 November to be suitable”. Sterling up 0.47%, $1.2767.
  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI at 50.2 vs expected 50.6. Non-Manufacturing PMI at 53.9 vs expected 54.7.
  • Canadian GDP m/m at 0.1% vs expected 0.0%. WTI crude extended its recent decline, losing -1.3% to $65.31/bbl, reaching its lowest level since August. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a weekly crude oil inventory build of 3.2 million barrels, marking the sixth straight week inventories have risen. USDCAD up 0.40%, $1.3159.
  • Aussie CPI q/q at 0.4% vs expected 0.5%. Trimmed Mean CPI q/q inline at 0.4%. Aussie down -0.32%, $0.7083.
  • S&P 500 up 1.09%, 2,711.74. Nasdaq up 2.31%, 6,967.10. Nikkei up 2.16%, 21,920.46.
  • Technology stocks were in control from the get-go, following Facebook (FB 151.79, +5.57, +3.8%) releasing its third quarter earnings report the previous evening. Alphabet (GOOG 1076.77, +40.56, +3.9%) and Netflix (NFLX 301.78, +15.97, +5.6%) joined Facebook with noteworthy gains on Wednesday, underpinning the strength in the communication services sector (+2.1%). Likewise, Apple (AAPL 218.86, +5.56, +2.6%) and Amazon (AMZN 1598.01, +67.59, +4.4%), respectively, provided strong support for the outperforming information technology (+2.4%) and consumer discretionary (+1.6%) sectors.
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM 109.02, +2.29) and Bank of America (BAC 27.50, +0.71) provided strong support with respective gains of 2.2% and 2.7%. Financials benefited from a slight steepening of the yield curve, with the 2-yr yield increasing four basis points to 2.88% and the 10-yr yield rising five basis points to 3.16%.
  • In other earnings, General Motors (GM 36.59, +3.05, +9.1%), eBay (EBAY 29.03, +1.61, +5.9%), T-Mobile US (TMUS 68.55, +4.63, +7.2%), and Automatic Data (ADP 144.08, +6.82, +5.0%) all sported healthy gains after reporting better-than-expected results. On the other hand, Kellogg (K 65.48, -6.38) lost -8.9% after missing bottom line estimates and lowering its adjusted earnings outlook.

 

  BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

Binance Freezes Funds With Suspected Money Laundering Links From Controversial Exchange WEX
Troubled cryptocurrency exchange WEX.nz has seen its funds frozen by fellow exchange Binance after users claimed the exchange was involved in money laundering. According to CEO Changpeng Zhao, laundered funds would “soon” use decentralized exchanges to avoid freezes traditional platforms are able to instigate. BTC-e remains subject to a giant $4 billion fraud investigation by Greece and U.S., with alleged founder Alexander Vinnik still in custody following his arrest in July 2017. WEX soon began exhibiting suspicious traits once it began operating, with prices of Bitcoin significantly larger on its order book than global norms. At press time, BTC/USD on WEX.nz was quoted at $8,547 – 35 percent higher than the CoinMarketCap average.

Venezuela Begins Public Sale of National Cryptocurrency Petro
On Monday, the Venezuelan government announced that the public can now purchase the country’s national cryptocurrency directly from the Superintendency of Cryptoassets and Related Activities (Sunacrip). Sunacrip is in charge of regulating all crypto-related activities in Venezuela. Buyers can visit the Sunacrip headquarters to purchase the petro with cash. Purchasing with cryptocurrencies can also be done on the petro’s official website. The public sale of the petro was scheduled for Nov. 5. However, Venezuela’s Superintendent of Cryptoassets Joselit Ramirez explained that the launch was moved forward due to the fluidity with which events developed and the support of President Nicolás Maduro. On Thursday, Venezuela’s vice president of the economy, Tareck El Aissami unveiled two more petro options which will be enabled on the Sunacrip website on Nov. 5: Petro Pago (pay) and Petro Ahorro (savings).

Kenya’s Bithub Africa Mines Bitcoin Using Solar Power
Founded in 2015, Bithub.Africa is a commercial blockchain accelerator that is driving the adoption of blockchain technology and solutions across Africa. The company also focuses on building systems that facilitate access to financial services and energy through public blockchain projects and open protocols such as Bitcoin. Bithub Africa has started using off-grid solar power to mine bitcoin and Ethereum and has laid out a series of interconnected cables and devices at its small mining facility in Nairobi. An inverter connects to a battery, which is patched through to a controller that is linked to a 200-watt solar panel. The PV module is fixed to the roof at an angle to maximize solar capture. Bithub Africa also extracts litecoin and ethereum classic using conventional sources of electricity, with only minimum air-conditioning needed to keep the mining rigs from overheating in addition to its solar-powered cryptocurrency mining operations.

2 min Market Summary: 31 Oct 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. CB Consumer Confidence at 137.9 vs expected 136.3. 2-yr and 10-yr Treasury notes added two basis points each to 2.84% and 3.11% respectively. USDJPY up 0.61%, $113.06.
  • German Prelim CPI m/m at 0.2% vs expected 0.1%. E.U. Prelim Flash GDP q/q at 0.2% vs expected 0.4%. Adding to Euro woes, Italian GDP in Q3 showed no growth, with Italian Deputy PM Salvini stating that the GDP slowdown is another reason to press ahead with the budget expansion. Euro down -0.25%, $1.1345.
  • Broad Dollar strength, political woes in the Union, and the absence of progress in Brexit negotiations all weighed on Sterling, with no fresh catalyst behind Tuesday’s slump. Sterling dropped -0.68%, $1.2706.
  • Aussie Building Approvals m/m at 3.3% vs expected 3.9%. Aussie up 0.68%, $0.7104.
  • S&P 500 up 1.57%, 2,682.63. Nasdaq up 1.43%, 6,810.12. Nikkei up 1.45%, 21,457.29.
  • Tuesday’s price action in the S&P 500 oscillated with the volatility in large-cap technology stocks before finally taking a decisive swing upwards in the last hour of trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which had been down approximately -0.7% intraday, closed at its session high with a 1.43% gain.
  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 4.2%. Notable chipmaker NVDIA (NVDA 203.00, +17.38) jumped 9.4% after J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral. He thinks that investors are underestimating secular gaming trends, as more than 30 new titles are set to be released in the next two quarters and as e-sports continue to gain in popularity.
  • Amazon (AMZN 1530.42, -8.46, -0.6%) was the only FANG member to post a loss. In earnings, Dow components Pfizer (PFE 42.89, -0.34, -0.8%) and Coca-Cola (KO 47.63, +1.17, +2.5%) both reported better-than-expected profits. Pfizer, however, lowered its revenue guidance, while Coca-Cola reaffirmed its guidance. Additionally, former Dow component General Electric (GE 10.18, -0.98) fell -8.8% to its lowest level in nearly a decade after missing top and bottom line expectations and cutting its quarterly dividend from $0.12 per share to $0.01 per share. Under Armour (UAA 23.23, +5.04) soared 27.7% following a better-than-expected earnings report. Facebook shares whipsawed in after-hours trading, following a mixed third-quarter earnings report Tuesday. Earnings per share (EPS): $1.76 vs $1.47 estimated. Revenue: $13.73 billion vs. $13.78 billion estimated. Facebook’s shares were down as much as -6% and up as much as 5% after hours as investors dissected Zuckerberg’s comments on future spending and growth. They finally settled in positive range, up about 3%, after the company’s earnings call concluded.

EARNINGS NEWS  

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

U.K.’s Financial Regulator Mulls Ban on Sale of Crypto Derivatives
The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said it will consider whether to ban the sale of cryptocurrency-based derivatives. The watchdog is reported to have said it will now launch a consultation in the first quarter of 2019 into whether or not to place a ban on their sale in future. The regulator’s remarks came the same day as a new report published by the Cryptoassets Taskforce – which includes representatives from the FCA, the U.K. Treasury and the Bank of England – emphasized that leveraged crypto-based derivatives were even riskier than spot market trading as they can amplify and “cause losses that go beyond the initial investment,” as well as imposing additional fees. The FCA reportedly plans to launch a parallel consultation into whether to extend its regulatory jurisdiction to crypto assets themselves, as well as to infrastructure providers such as exchanges and wallet services.

Bitcoin ‘Patient Zero’ Says BTC’s Current Stage is Like ‘1992 for The Internet’
Bitcoin “Patient Zero” Wences Casares, the founder of Bitcoin (BTC) wallet startup Xapo, said that the seminal cryptocurrency may take years to prove successful. Casares forecasted that it will take at least seven years to determine whether BTC is successful, and if it does, BTC will become a non-political global standard of value and settlement. Notably, the Bitcoin advocate said that it will not replace fiat currencies as “it does not make sense.” He added that the idea that a blockchain can “change the idea of an asset, that already derives its value from a central authority […] its really nonsensical and does not make any sense.” Regarding blockchain, Casares stated in January that there would eventually come about a single “robust” blockchain to move value globally. Per Casares, the future of crypto lies in the cooperation around a singular, robust blockchain, and in his opinion BTC is the most likely to be the blockchain of choice.

Bitcoin Is ‘Anything but Useful’ Says Ex-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
Bitcoin is “anything but” a useful store of value, former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen stated in a speech during an interview at the 2018 Canada FinTech Forum in Montreal.  Yellen – who rose to fame in the cryptocurrency community last year as the target of the now infamous ‘Buy Bitcoin’ session,  called Bitcoin a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable source of value.” She also noted that the Fed was not “seriously considering” the concept of a state-issued digital currency at the time of her engagement.

2 min Market Summary: 30 Oct 2018

 NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m at 0.2% vs expected 0.1%. Personal Spending m/m inline at 0.4%. Treasury yields closed slightly higher with the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield adding one basis point each to 2.82% and 3.09%, respectively. USDJPY up 0.35%, $112.32.
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel announced on Monday that she won’t be seeking re-election as head of the CDU. The decision follows disappointing results over the weekend for her party in a regional election. Her plan, however, is to remain Chancellor until 2021, after which time she will not pursue any other political posts. Euro down -0.20%, $1.1376. U.K. Net Lending to Individuals m/m at 4.7B vs expected 4.1B. Sterling down -0.23%, $1.2802. USDCAD up 0.24%, $1.3130.
  • S&P 500 down -0.66%, 2,641.25. Nasdaq down -2.02%, 6,713.90. Nikkei down -0.16%, 21,149.80.
  • Continued tech weakness shook investor confidence, and reports of another possible round of Chinese tariffs helped accelerate losses in the afternoon (EST). Bloomberg reported that the White House is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports if talks next month between Trump and Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war.  Facebook (FB 152.09, -3.28, -2.3%), Alphabet (GOOG 1020.08, -51.39, -4.8%) and Netflix (NFLX 284.97, -14.86, -5.0%) dragged the communication services sector lower, while consumer discretionary component Amazon (AMZN 1538.88, -103.93) extended its post-earnings losses, losing -6.3%. Also, the world’s largest tech company, Apple (AAPL 212.24, -4.06), lost -1.9%.
  • Meanwhile, in Asia, China is reportedly considering a 50% cut in its tax on car purchases. Shares of Ford Motor (F 9.28, +0.30) and General Motors (GM 33.13, +0.48) benefited from the reports, gaining 3.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

 

 BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

Singapore: Major Utility Company Launches Blockchain-Based Solar Energy Marketplace

SP Group, a major corporation providing electricity and gas transmission in Singapore, has launched a blockchain-powered renewable energy certificate (REC) marketplace. The platform was unveiled at the ASEAN Energy Business Forum held in Singapore this week. The press release notes that SP Group plans to use blockchain to help the company increase transparency and efficiency. The first contracts have already been signed with global real estate developer CDL and multinational banking corporation DBS Bank. Three solar energy sellers — Cleantech Solar Asia, LYS Energy Solutions and Katoen Natie Singapore — are also joining the marketplace.

World’s Largest Diamond Producer Alrosa Joins De Beers’ Blockchain Pilot

The world’s largest diamond mining firm, Russia’s Alrosa, has joined the pilot of fellow industry giant De Beers’ diamond supply chain blockchain platform “Tracr,” mining industry news outlet. Alrosa is the world’s largest producer of raw diamonds in carat terms. Tracr, whose pilot was first announced in January, aims to improve transparency and consumer trust across the diamond value chain from mine to retail. The solution works by creating a digital certificate for each diamond that records key attributes and transactions. The data is stored immutably on the blockchain, allowing buyers to verify that diamonds they purchase are natural and conflict-free. The Tracr blockchain initiative is designed to complement existing regulations and schemes that already function to foster industry confidence in diamonds’ provenance and quality, such as the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, World Diamond Council System of Warranties, and Responsible Jewellery Council Code of Practices. h

IT Firm Fujitsu Builds Blockchain Settlement Trial Infrastructure for Nine Japanese Banks

Japanese multinational IT equipment and services company Fujitsu will build an interbank settlement platform using blockchain technology as part of a joint project with nine domestic banks. As part of the development, the platform will use an unnamed “digital currency” to make settlements. Fujitsu will additionally leverage the P2P money transfer platform it developed in (the) fiscal (year) 2017 with three major banks to generate the money transfers to other banks that will trigger interbank funds transfer settlement. By participating in this project, Fujitsu aims to establish a new platform that utilizes cutting-edge technology to help realize a cashless society.

Trade Opportunities: EUR/JPY, NASDAQ

EUR/JPY Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart SHORT
EUR/JPY closed last week below the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Until it recovers to close above the cloud, sell on rallies is the way to go.

 

NASDAQ Composite Index Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart
The NASDAQ Composite Index has not traded below the weekly Ichimoku cloud since mid 2016. It is now trading near critical support levels. A close below the cloud will be quite damaging to the longer term technical picture.

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are extracts of our weekly subscription product – “CIO’s Week Ahead Update” which provides analysis for the week ahead, first sent out on Monday of the week.

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2 min Market Summary: 29 October 2018

  NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. Advance GDP q/q at 3.5% vs expected 3.3%. Advance GDP Price Index q/q at 1.7% vs expected 2.1%. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment at 98.6 vs expected 98.9. U.S. Treasuries prices rose, as the market turmoil drove some safe-haven positioning. The 2-yr yield decreased five basis points to 2.81%, and the 10-yr yield dropped six basis points to 3.08%. USDJPY down -0.45%, $111.91.
  • Euro up 0.24%, $1.1403. Over the weekend, UK’s Chancellor Philip Hammond warned that a no-deal Brexit will jeopardise budget plans, prolonging UK’S austerity and that the government will need a new emergency one. Sterling up 0.12%, $1.2833. USDCAD up 0.28%, $1.3107.
  • S&P 500 down -1.73%, 2,658.69. Nasdaq down -2.34%, 6,852.40. Nikkei down -0.40%, 21,184.60.
  • A stronger-than-expected advance Q3 GDP reading (+3.5% actual vs +3.3% consensus) took a backseat in Friday’s trading action to Amazon lowering its fourth quarter revenue guidance and Alphabet missing third quarter revenue expectations. Facebook (FB 145.37, -5.58, -3.7%), Netflix (NFLX 299.83, -13.04, -4.2%), and Apple (AAPL 216.30, -3.50, -1.6%) also back-pedalled from notable gains in the previous session, adding pressure to the communication services and information technology (-1.9%) sectors. In other earnings news, Mohawk Industries (MHK 115.03, -36.04, -23.9%), Western Digital (WDC 44.19, -9.82, -18.2%), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 59.58, -4.24, -6.6%) contributed to angst over future earnings growth. Flooring manufacturing company Mohawk cited weakening demand, inflation, and pricing pressures for its lower outlook; Western Digital said customers are being more conservative, resulting in softening demand; and Colgate-Palmolive encountered profit margin pressures from higher raw material and packaging material costs.
  • Conversely, Dow component Intel (INTC 45.69, +1.38) easily beat consensus revenue and EPS estimates for the third quarter and issued fourth quarter guidance that exceeded analysts’ average estimates. Shares of the chip maker finished 3.1% higher.

  BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

  • Ukraine: Economic Development and Trade Ministry Launches State Policy to Legalize Crypto
    The Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine has initiated a “state policy” for the classification and legalization of crypto-related activities. The Ministry has issued an official press release stating that its purpose is to “create understandable conditions for conducting activities in the field of virtual assets and virtual currencies,” and to usher in “adoption of the concept of a state policy” for crypto. It has proposed establishing legal definitions for key terms, including “virtual currency” (“cryptocurrency,”) “virtual assets,” Initial Coin (or Token) Offerings (ICOs or ITOs), cryptocurrency mining, “smart contracts,” and “tokens.” The concept is expected to be implemented in two stages, and will be completed in 2021.
  • World’s Largest Crypto Exchange OKEx to Delist 50+ Trading Pairs Due to ‘Weak’ Performance
    Major Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency exchange OKEx will delist over 50 trading pairs with weak performance. The exchange will halt the trading of a swathe of pairs that they cite as having weak liquidity and trading volume at 6:00 am Oct. 31, 2018 CET. The exchange warned users that they should cancel their orders of the affected pairs from the platform. Earlier this month, OKEx announced the listings of four stablecoins at once – TrueUSD (TUSD), USD Coin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD), and Paxos Standard Token (PAX). Founded in 2014, OKEx is at press time the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of adjusted trading volume, seeing around $402.5 million in trades over the past 24 hours.
  • VeChain Signs MoU for Blockchain Development with Cyprus
    Singapore-based blockchain platform VeChain Foundation, U.S. blockchain startup CREAM, and the national investment partner of the Republic of Cyprus, Invest Cyprus, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The MoU is focused on establishing a framework in the field of blockchain technologies and related use cases. Per the MoU, the parties will work on a number of national level investment strategies, which involve blockchain-powered economies and promote blockchain technology, particularly in financial services. The suggested reforms will purportedly comply with regulatory procedures such as Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements, E.U. law, and other regulations.

2 min Market Summary: 26 Oct 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

  • U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m at 0.1% vs expected 0.5%. Durable Goods Orders m/m at 0.8% vs expected -1.3%. The Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield was unchanged at 2.86%, while the benchmark 10-yr yield closed one basis point higher at 3.14%. USDJPY up 0.10%, $112.37.
  • German Ifo Business Climate at 102.8 vs expected 103.1. The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged at 0.00%, as expected. ECB confirmed that its plan to end monetary easing by the end of the year remains on track. “Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the new monthly pace of 15 billion euros until the end of December 2018,” the ECB said in a statement. The decision takes place as concerns mount over Italy’s fiscal policies and their potential impact over the stability of the euro area. The central bank’s president said in a subsequent press conference that he expected euro zone inflation to pick up despite weaker momentum. Euro down -0.16%, $1.1374.
  • Brexit negotiations remain in a stalemate, and the latest header on the issue referred to UK’s Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, who said that the EU’s “intransigence” is preventing them from achieving a deal. Sterling down -0.48%, $1.2819. USDCAD up 0.13%, $1.3072.
  • S&P 500 up 1.86%, 2,705.57. Nasdaq up 3.35%, 7,016.39. Nikkei down -3.72%, 21,268.73.
  • Heavyweight Microsoft (MSFT 108.30, +5.98) powered the recently struggling information technology sector, closing 5.8% higher after reporting above-consensus top and bottom lines Tesla (TSLA 314.86, +26.36, +9.1%) and Twitter (TWTR 31.80, +4.26, +15.5%) comfortably exceeded earnings expectations. Tesla, in fact, surprised investors by turning a profit last quarter.
  • The FANG bunch traded bid, led by Amazon (AMZN 1782.17, +117.97) and Alphabet (GOOG 1095.57, +44.86) sporting gains of 7.1% and 4.3%, respectively, ahead of their earnings reports. Ford (F 8.99, +0.81, +9.9%), Visa (V 140.52, +6.26, +4.7%), Comcast (CMCSA 35.84, +1.72, +5.0%), American Airlines (AAL 32.37, +2.03, +6.7%), and Whirlpool (WHR 111.34, +7.07, +6.8%) all finished with healthy gains, capitalizing on better-than-expected earnings results. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 19.27, -3.52, -15.5%) issued a revenue warning for the fourth quarter, and Southwest Air (LUV 49.91, -4.67, -8.6%) acknowledged that it is facing some higher-than-expected cost pressures.
  • Amazon dropped roughly -7% in after-hours trading on revenue and guidance miss. The e-commerce and cloud giant reported EPS of $5.75 versus consensus estimates of $3.08, according to FactSet. But revenues of $56.58 fell short of expectations for $57.1 billion. In addition, Amazon guided for revenue of $66.5 billion to $72.5 billion, below a $73.79 billion consensus estimate.
  • Likewise, Alphabet stock sinks on revenue miss, down more than -3.4% after hours. Alphabet reported EPS of $13.06 versus $10.42 expected and revenues of $33.7 billion versus $34.04 billion expected.

 

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

China’s Alibaba Cloud Expands Enterprise Blockchain Offering to Global Markets
Alibaba Cloud, the cloud computing arm of China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, is enhancing its Blockchain-as-a-Service (BaaS) offering outside China. Alibaba Cloud will expand its enterprise-level blockchain service to major international markets including Europe, the U.S., and South East Asia. The blockchain solution offers a broad range of applications such as automatic deployment, consortium blockchain management, smart contracts, and others. Founded in 2009, Alibaba Cloud is reportedly considered as the largest cloud services supplier in China, as well as the third largest in the world, and now is operating 52 availability zones in 19 regions across the world.

German Central Bank and Deutsche Boerse Successfully Complete Blockchain Settlement Trial
The central bank of Germany, Deutsche Bundesbank, and securities marketplace organizer Deutsche Boerse (DB) have successfully completed the trial of a blockchain solution in the settlements area. The transaction volume and speed of a production system were tested on the Hyperledger Fabric framework and Digital Asset, a distributed ledger (DLT) solution for the financial sector. The high latency for some technology stacks and high CPU-usage were mentioned among weaknesses, while higher resiliency and lower cost of reconciliation due to the joint database were considered to be benefits. The main point of the joint research was bond issuance, settlement, corporate actions, and redemption, as well as cash transfer including the provisioning of digital coins, transfer between market participants, and settlement of cash payments, the summary states.

Japan’s Financial Regulator Mulls Cap on Cryptocurrency Margin Trading
Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to put a cap on the leverage available for crypto margin trading to curb speculation and risk. Currently, there are no regulations specifically governing the cryptocurrency margin trading space in Japan, with exchanges offering as much as 25 times leverage. That means traders can effectively borrow cryptocurrencies worth up to 25 times the deposit with an exchange, however, just a 4 percent drop in the purchased crypto assets would wipe out the initial deposit.  The news follows previous statistics released by the FSA, which indicated cryptocurrency margin trading has seen rapid growth in Japan. For instance, over 80 percent of the total cryptocurrency trading volume in Japan in 2017 came from derivatives trading, which recorded $543 billion. More than 90 percent of that figure came from margin traders. Seven of the 16 licensed exchanges by the FSA now offer marge trading services, adding that a panel comprised of FSA officials and industry experts is now set to discuss ways to impose potential regulations in this area.

2 min Market Summary: 25 Oct 2018

NOTABLE MOVES

  • U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI at 55.9 vs expected 55.4. Flash Services PMI at 54.7 vs expected 54.1. Fed indicated in its Fed Beige Book for September that manufacturing prices continued to rise, attributed to tariffs. The Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield closed two basis points lower at 2.86%, and the benchmark 10-yr yield closed four basis points lower at 3.12%. USDJPY down -0.39%, $112.00.
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI at 52.3 vs expected 53.4. German Flash Services PMI at 53.6 vs expected 55.5. E.U. Flash Manufacturing PMI at 52.1 vs expected 53.0. Flash Services PMI at 53.3 vs expected 54.5. Euro dropped -0.63%, $1.1399. In Brexit, PM May had cabinet meetings on Wednesday and the fear is not only for no-deal, but a revolt within her party and cabinet. Sterling fell -0.76%, $1.2884.
  • BoC raises interest rate to 1.75%. The BoC also pointed out that since the economy is now running close to its potential, it no longer needs policy stimulus and hence the overnight rate will need to rise to neutral in order to achieve the inflation target. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins reiterated that the Bank estimates neutral to be in a 2.5 to 3.5% range. Risks to the global economic outlook related to the U.S.– China trade tensions were also discussed. But Governor Poloz pointed out that related risks to the economy are not all to the downside because there could also be a negotiated de-escalation of those tensions. The BoC’s statement was more hawkish than the one it published last September. The central bank not only raised interest rates (expected), but it also dropped its reference to “gradual” rate hikes. USDCAD traded to a low of 1.2971 in the aftermath and recovered to close -0.28% lower, $1.3048.
  • Stocks initially opened flat, but soon began ticking lower before doing a nose dive in the late afternoon. AT&T (T 30.36, -2.66, -8.1%) and Texas Instruments (TXN 92.01, -8.24, -8.2%) weighed on their respective communication services and information technology sectors with disappointing earnings reports on Wednesday. Telecom giant AT&T missed earnings expectations, citing its recent acquisitions and accounting changes. Likewise, chipmaker Texas Instruments reported below-consensus revenue and issued a Q4 earnings warning, acknowledging that demand has slowed for its products across most markets.  STMicroelectronics (STM 13.69, -2.18) also fell, losing -13.7%, after lowering its guidance, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped -6.6%. Dow component Boeing (BA 354.65, +4.60, +1.3%) reported better-than-expected top and bottom lines and raised its earnings guidance.
  • Tesla’s shares jumped by more than 12% (After Market Close), with the company reporting a surprise profit for the third quarter. Tesla gave investors hope that its production rates will improve, saying that the number of labor hours to build the Model 3 fell. Musk told analysts on a call it was an “incredibly historic quarter” for the young car company. It was welcome news for investors following an otherwise a tumultuous few months. The electric carmaker reported adjusted EPS of $2.90, well above consensus estimates for a loss of 7 cents per share. Revenue came in at $6.82 billion, soundly ahead of a $6.1 billion consensus.
  • Microsoft rises on earnings beat, but Azure growth slows. Shares in the tech giant rose 4.3% in after market hours after the company reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter. They reported earnings of $1.14 per share, topping analysts’ expectations of 96 cents per share. The company also reported revenue of $29.08 billion versus Wall Street’s expectation of revenue of $27.90 billion.

CRYPTOCURRENCY UPDATES

Nasdaq Wins Blockchain Patent for Smart Contract-Based Information Release System

Yesterday, Nasdaq, the worlds second largest stock exchange by the market cup, revealed a new blockchain patent award. Blockchain technology, or more specifically smart contracts, could be used to automate and ensure the security of the information release process. Each modification and/or approval of the document is recorded as a separate transaction on the blockchain where each of the submitter, editor, approver, and recipients interact with the blockchain with corresponding unique digital identifiers — such as private keys. Several months ago, Nasdaq has tested a blockchain proof-of-concept system for securities collateral, and has also filed for other patents linked to the technology. Last month, Nasdaq executives said they were looking at adding cryptocurrency data to its market analytics tool after users showed what it called “abundant” interest.

Crypto Exchange Bitfinex Denies Allegedly ‘Fake’ Tether Volumes Listed on CoinMarketCap

Major crypto exchange Bitfinex was recently accused of publishing trading volume data from “a market that doesn’t exist.” The article had argued that since the exchange does not provide a USDT/USD trading pair, this was an intentional strategy to make it appear as though a large volume of such trades were occuring on the exchange. In fact, Bifinex users are only able to deposit and withdraw both Tether and U.S. dollars through their accounts, rather than execute such trades. Bitfinex has recently been prompted to deny rumors that it was “insolvent” or facing banking issues in response to reports that its banking partner, Puerto Rico’s Noble Bank International, was seeking a buyer and had lost both Bitfinex and affiliated firm Tether as clients. The following week, the platform temporarily suspended all fiat wire deposits without providing a specific reason, although it had acknowledged in its prior statement that “complications continue to exist” for Bitfinex “in the domain of fiat transactions.”

Chinese E-commerce Giant Alibaba Wins Preliminary Injunction Against Alibabacoin

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has won a preliminary injunction against Dubai-based Alibabacoin Foundation in a lawsuit over the misleading use of Alibaba in their name. The court’s decision implies that the Alibabacoin Foundation will no longer be able to promote or sell its cryptocurrency in the country until larger action on this case is decided. In mid-October, the Alibabacoin Foundation reportedly offered for Alibaba to purchase their startup. According to the Alibabacoin Foundation’s website, the company wants to build a fund security system improved by a secret technique for implementing a blockchain algorithm into a facial recognition hashing process. According to CoinMarketcCap, Alibabacoin is ranked 1691th in global cryptocurrency rankings, and has seen a decline in price this week dropping from $1.6 per coin to $0.37 as of press time.