2 min Market Summary: 24 Oct 2018

NOTABLE MOVES

  • U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index at 15 vs expected 25. Japan’s finance minister said he expects a planned sales tax increase next October to cause some disruptions. The 10-yr yield finished three basis points lower at 3.17%, but was down as much as eight basis points. USDJPY down -0.34%, $112.45.
  • German PPI m/m at 0.5% vs expected 0.3%. EU rejected Italy’s budget plan to increase its deficit spending to 2.4% of GDP in 2019. Euro up 0.05%, $1.1471. In Brexit, headlines indicated that the EU is willing to offer PM May a UK-wide customs union as a way around the Irish backstop issue, but it will have to be negotiated separately to the Withdrawal agreement. PM May, however, wants a UK-wide customs backstop that is legally-binding and included in the divorce bill. Sterling up 0.14%, $1.2980. USDCAD down -0.14%, $1.3083.
  • S&P 500 down -0.55%, 2,740.69. Nasdaq down -0.32%, 7,118.67. Nikkei down -2.67%, 22,010.78.
  • Disappointing earnings reports from Dow components 3M (MMM 192.55, -8.81) and Caterpillar (CAT 118.98, -9.73) heightened worries that earnings growth may have peaked and weighed on the industrial sector, which lost -1.6%. 3M reported lower-than-expected top and bottom lines and also lowered its earnings guidance. Meanwhile, Caterpillar drew attention to higher material and freight costs, including tariffs. Shares of 3M lost -4.4%, and Caterpillar shares fell -7.6%. Dow component McDonald’s (MCD 177.15, +10.52, +6.3%) helped lift the consumer discretionary sector after it reported above-consensus top and bottom lines. Meanwhile, Verizon (VZ 57.21, +2.23, +4.1%) led the communication services sector higher after it reported better-than-expected earnings.

 

CRYPTOCURRENCY UPDATES

Payments Company Square Open-Sources Its Bitcoin Cold Storage Tool

According to U.S. payments processing company Square’s announcement it is open-sourcing its Bitcoin (BTC) cold storage solution dubbed “Subzero“. “Subzero,” uses a Hardware Security Module (HSM)-backed cold wallet for which the company has now released the code, documentation, and tools. A HSMs’ security benefits include robust protection against physical tampering, strong access control and the option to replicate keys for backup or recovery purposes. Subzero has reportedly added multi-signature protection for its wallet, in which “participants [must] use a combination of smart cards and passwords” to authenticate transfers. QR codes are used to exchange the minimal amount of data needed between the offline and online world. The company also says it has leveraged industry stalwart crypto wallet Trezor’s “open source projects (such as trezor-crypto) as much as possible.”

Use of Blockchain in Major Industries by Numbers: Retail, Manufacturing, Finance, and Others

Many startups, major conglomerates, supply chain operators, and distributors have attempted to integrate blockchain technology over the past two years, to increase transparency and reduce the power of central entities in data processing. The exponential increase in demand and interest in blockchain technology has enabled multi-billion dollar markets for the blockchain in major sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, retail, supply chain, IoT, and payments. The researchers from ReportLinker firm stated that the blockchain in manufacturing market is forecasted to be worth around $30 million by 2020, and the market will continue to grow at an annual growth rate of 80 percent, to $566 million by 2025. The offshore banking market, which is mostly dominated by financial institutions and banks that oversee savings accounts for high profile retail traders and institutional investors, is estimated to be valued at around $32 trillion. Blockchain in energy and insurance are also predicted by MarketsandMarkets to grow to $7 billion and $1,4 billion respectively by the end of 2023, at a compound annual growth rate of 84.9 percent.

Ex-Fidelity Exec Joins Blockchain Company Bloq as Chief Operating Officer

A former executive at financial services giant Fidelity Investments Hadley Stern has been appointed Chief Operating Officer (COO) at blockchain infrastructure firm Bloq. In a Medium post published today, entitled “The Tokenization of Things and Building the Unimaginable,” Stern gave his perspective on the history of the new technologies driving an “efficient, frictionless” economy stating that without coming off as doctrinaire or fundamentalist, it’s fair to say that Satoshi Nakamoto delivered a true gift in the Bitcoin whitepaper, that is, a way to produce and account for a provably scarce, wholly digital asset. Stern’s blog post further outlined three fundamental market areas to be undertaken at Bloq as part of the company’s aim to further the management and integration of digital assets.

Trade Opportunities: EUR/CAD, NZD/USD

EUR/CAD Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart – SHORT
As the economies of Canada and the Eurozone continue to diverge, EUR/CAD is likely to test much lower levels. The recent rally presents us with a good opportunity to get involved.

 

NZD/USD Daily Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart – SHORT
NZD/USD seems to be having trouble breaking above 0.6600-10 area which is close to the bottom of the daily ichimoku cloud. This makes for a good risk/reward opportunity to add to shorts.

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are extracts of our weekly subscription product – “CIO’s Week Ahead Update” which provides analysis for the week ahead, first sent out on Monday of the week.

Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

2 Min Market Summary (23 Oct 2018)

  • U.S. Existing Home Sales at 5.15M vs expected 5.29M. The 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield each increased two basis points to 2.90% and 3.20%, respectively. USDJPY up 0.32%, $112.55.
  • Euro up 0.54%, $1.1515. U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing at 3.3B vs expected 4.6B. In Brexit, EU officials now increasingly hope for the Brexit transition period to be extended as the current roadmap is not providing both negotiating sides enough time to sort out the details. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Friday that problem over Irish border could lead to failure, voicing no interest in hard Brexit. Sterling up 0.41%, $1.3072.
  • Chinese GDP q/y at 6.5% vs expected 6.6%. Industrial Production y/y at 5.8% vs expected 6.0%.
  • Canadian CPI m/m at -0.4% vs expected 0.1%. Core Retail Sales m/m at -0.4% vs expected 0.1%. USDCAD up 0.10%, $1.3099.
  • S&P 500 down -0.04%, 2,767.78. Nasdaq down -0.12%, 7,107.23. Nikkei down -0.56%, 22,532.08.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite rebounded from a four-year low on Friday, adding 2.9%, despite reporting a lower-than-expected GDP reading (+6.5% actual vs +6.6% consensus). Chinese officials made a collaborative effort to ease investor angst about liquidity risk and China’s economic fundamentals.
  • On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble (PG 87.30, +7.06) and PayPal (PYPL 84.78, +7.30) jumped 8.8% and 9.4%, respectively, after beating earnings estimates. Procter & Gamble wowed investors with quarterly organic sales increasing 4%, its highest increase since Q1 of its fiscal 2014 year. In addition, Dow component American Express (AXP 106.73, +3.89) enjoyed a healthy gain of 3.8% after beating earnings estimates and raising its profit guidance.

Cryptocurrency Updates: 23 Oct 2018

Visa Set to Launch Blockchain-Based Digital Identity System with IBM in Q1 2019

Visa is readying its blockchain-based digital identity system dubbed Visa B2B Connect for cross-border payments for launch in the first quarter of 2019 that will provide a blockchain-based digital identity solution for financial institutions to securely process cross-border payments. From a technical standpoint the solution will integrate a Hyperledger Fabric framework with Visa’s “core assets,” which the release claims will establish a scalable permissioned network for use in the financial sector. Visa – alongside MasterCard – has this month reportedly moved to group cryptocurrency and Initial Coin Offering (ICO) under a new “High-Risk Securities Merchants” classification, meaning interaction with them will be subject to additional monitoring.

Demand for Blockchain Engineers Has Grown 400% Since End of 2017

The average earnings of a blockchain engineer have soared to between $150-175,000 per year. Since 2017, the demand has soared 400 percent, despite the wider cryptocurrency bear market. CNBC notes the demand is further fueled by the interest of global tech giants such as Facebook, Amazon, IBM and Microsoft, all of whom are currently advertising for specialists from the emerging sector. Desired knowledge encompasses “networking, database design and cryptography computing skills,” and fluency in the Java, JavaScript, C++, Go, Solidity and Python coding languages, CNBC notes, citing “multiple blockchain engineers” as its source. The report was compiled to encompass tech workers across thirteen global cities, based on over “420,000” interview requests alongside an optional demographics survey to include age and race data where possible.

China’s Internet Watchdog Issues Draft Regulations for Blockchain-Based Info Services

China’s top-level internet watchdog, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), published new draft regulations for blockchain-based information service providers. The draft proposes twenty three articles for the regulation of all companies or entities providing blockchain-based information services to the Chinese public. Under the proposed rules, all such entities would be required to register with the CAC within ten days of launching their platforms. The regulations would also require service providers to censor content that is deemed to pose a threat to national security or to “disrupt the social order,” and to allow authorities to inspect user data stored on their systems.

2 min Market Summary: 22 Oct 2018

  • U.S. Existing Home Sales at 5.15M vs expected 5.29M. The 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield each increased two basis points to 2.90% and 3.20%, respectively. USDJPY up 0.32%, $112.55.
  • Euro up 0.54%, $1.1515. U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing at 3.3B vs expected 4.6B. In Brexit, EU officials now increasingly hope for the Brexit transition period to be extended as the current roadmap is not providing both negotiating sides enough time to sort out the details. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Friday that problem over Irish border could lead to failure, voicing no interest in hard Brexit. Sterling up 0.41%, $1.3072.
  • Chinese GDP q/y at 6.5% vs expected 6.6%. Industrial Production y/y at 5.8% vs expected 6.0%.
  • Canadian CPI m/m at -0.4% vs expected 0.1%. Core Retail Sales m/m at -0.4% vs expected 0.1%. USDCAD up 0.10%, $1.3099.
  • S&P 500 down -0.04%, 2,767.78. Nasdaq down -0.12%, 7,107.23. Nikkei down -0.56%, 22,532.08.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite rebounded from a four-year low on Friday, adding 2.9%, despite reporting a lower-than-expected GDP reading (+6.5% actual vs +6.6% consensus). Chinese officials made a collaborative effort to ease investor angst about liquidity risk and China’s economic fundamentals.
  • On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble (PG 87.30, +7.06) and PayPal (PYPL 84.78, +7.30) jumped 8.8% and 9.4%, respectively, after beating earnings estimates. Procter & Gamble wowed investors with quarterly organic sales increasing 4%, its highest increase since Q1 of its fiscal 2014 year. In addition, Dow component American Express (AXP 106.73, +3.89) enjoyed a healthy gain of 3.8% after beating earnings estimates and raising its profit guidance.

Cryptocurrency Updates: 22 Oct 2018

Global AML Watchdog to Release Crypto Regulations By Next June

A global money-laundering watchdog has said it will begin publishing rules for international cryptocurrency regulation by next summer. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said that global jurisdictions will have to bring into force licensing schemes or regulations for crypto exchanges and possibly digital wallet providers under the new rules. Companies offering financial services for initial coin offerings will also be included. The news comes after the FATF plenary meeting this week with officials from 204 global jurisdictions to discuss crypto regulations and other matters.

Ethereum Devs Reach Consensus to Delay Constantinople Hard Fork Until January 2019

Ethereum (ETH) core developers have reached a consensus to delay a planned hard fork of the protocol until January 2019. The fork, dubbed “Constantinople,” was first trialed on Ethereum public testnet Ropsten on Oct. 13, and had been slated to be activated on the main Ethereum blockchain by the end of Oct.-Nov. this year. A testnet is essentially a simulated version of the primary network that allows developers to try out smart contracts or upgrades without having to pay “gas” (computation fees) for their execution. The Constantinople hard fork is is a system-wide Ethereum update designed to increase the network’s efficiency, and notably includes plans to reduce block rewards for miners, as well as to introduce changes to the network’s consensus mechanism that would make it more resistant to ASIC miners.

North Korea-Sponsored Hacks Comprise 65 Percent of Total Crypto Stolen

Hacker group “Lazarus,” reportedly funded by North Korea, has stolen a staggering $571 million in cryptocurrencies since early 2017, a study conducted by cybercrime company Group-IB reveals. The report, dedicated to hacks in 2017 and 2018, identifies the allegedly state-sponsored hacker group Lazarus as responsible for $571 million of the $882 million total in crypto that was stolen from online exchanges during the studied time period; almost 65 percent of the total sum. Out of fourteen separate exchange breaches, five have been attributed to the group, among them the industry record-breaking $532 million NEM hack of Japan’s Coincheck this January. The report states that hackers target cryptocurrency exchanges using mostly “traditional” methods, including spear phishing, social engineering, and malware.

2 min Market Summary: 19 Oct 2018

  • U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 22.2 vs expected 19.7. Manufacturers remain optimistic about the outlook, as 48% of respondents expect business activity to increase over the next six months versus only 14% that expect declines. 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield settling unchanged at 2.88% and 3.18%, respectively. Risk-aversion overhangs as global markets tumbled on Thursday. USDJPY down -0.40%, $112.20.
  • Sentiment in the E.U. deteriorated as Italian debt crumbled on the ongoing budget dispute with the EU. Italian 10-year yields were up 14 bps to 3.69%. Euro down -0.41%. $1.14541. U.K. Retail Sales m/m at -0.8% vs expected -0.4%. Sterling plunged after a crucial Brexit summit ended withUK’s PM May offering nothing new and EU leaders canceling plans for a special summit next November. Negotiations, however, continue and EU leaders are willing to reconsider a summit next month, should a breakthrough is reached. Sterling down -0.74%, $1.3018.
  • WTI crude extended Wednesday’s slide, settling -1.4% lower at $68.71/bbl, marking a one-month low. USDCAD up 0.47%, $1.3079. Aussie Employment Change at 5.6K vs expected 15.2K. Unemployment Rate at 5.0% vs expected 5.3%. Aussie down -0.18%, $0.7096.
  • S&P 500 down -1.40%, 2768.02. Nasdaq down -2.23%, 7,116.09. Nikkei down -0.80%, 22,658.16.
  • The benchmark index opened just modestly lower, but started extending losses soon thereafter.U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin added to the uncertainty when he announced that he would be pulling out of next week’s Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia. The decision comes as investigators seek answers over the disappearance and alleged murder of dissident Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
  • In other corporate news, Dow component Travelers (TRV 125.14, -1.30) fell -1.0% despite reporting better-than-expected profits for the third quarter; Netflix (NFLX 346.71, -17.99) tumbled-4.9% after an NBC News report showed that the WSJ is investigating the company’s corporate culture.

Cryptocurrency News: 19 Oct 2018

Global Security Firm G4S Announces High-Security ‘Vault Storage’ for Holding CryptoGlobal Security Firm G4S Announces High-Security ‘Vault Storage’ for Holding Crypto

U.K.-based multinational security services company G4S has developed a new service for protecting cryptocurrency assets. G4S, formerly Group 4 Securicor runs both prisons and detention centers, as well as stores cash for “large companies,” and has released an solution for holding crypto assets in a form of high-security offline storage protecting customers from hacks. G4S is based on a foundation of “vault storage” that is inaccessible for cyber criminals and hackers, as well as “armed robbers alike.” The new security solution distrubutes crypto assets into independent components placed securely in the system’s security vaults. In June 2018, cybersecurity company Carbon Black estimated that criminals stole around $1.1 billion worth of cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2018, with 12,000 marketplaces and 34,000 offerings associated with cryptocurrency theft that hackers can take advantage of. On Oct. 10, anonymous attackers hacked the adult entertainment platform SpankChain, stole around $38,000 worth of major cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH), as well as $4,000 worth of the platform’s native crypto token.

Natwest Bank Launches R3 Corda Blockchain-Based Syndicated Lending Platform

U.K.-based bank Natwest will integrate a new blockchain platform based on R3 Corda technology for use in the syndicated loans market. The new platform, dubbed “Fusion LenderComm,” was developed by blockchain consortium R3 and fintech enterprise Finastra, and aims to streamline the global market for syndicated loans. The platform works by enabling “financial institutions acting as agents to publish loan data to the ledger and extend self-service capabilities to lenders. Through their own portal, agents can define and then publish lender-specific deal position data to the platform, allowing individual lenders to consult the data themselves and not resort to extra phone or online communication to query positions.

Dubai – the Blockchain Oasis of the UAE: From Public to Private Sector

The first proposal for an official Dubai cryptocurrency called emCash came about in October 2017. The cryptocurrency is pluged to be used for payments for governmental and nongovernmental services – and is pegged to the UAE Dirham. The partnership was announced on October 9, which includes emCredit, a subsidiary of the Dubai Department of Economic Development, blockchain payment provider Pundi X and its partner Ebooc Fintech & Loyalty Labs LLC. Ebooc will be responsible for providing point of sale terminals in retail outlets, while Pundi X is expected to create 100,000 point of sale units over the next three years. The Central Bank of the UAE began working on legislation at the beginning of 2017 to address the use of cryptocurrencies in the country. The UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) warned the local investors about the inherent risks associated with ICOs. Given that they are not regulated in the country, investors had no means of legal protection against fraud. As Dubai and the UAE continue to explore and develop technology with the use of blockchain technology, as well as provide a guideline for the use of ICOs and cryptocurrencies, the outlook in the region seems positive.

2 min Market Summary: 18 Oct 2018

  • U.S. Building Permits at 1.24M vs expected 1.27M. Housing Starts at 1.20M vs expected 1.22M. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher following the minutes with the Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield and benchmark 10-yr yield each advancing two basis points to 2.88% and 3.18%, respectively. Following the minutes, the probability of a December rate hike ticked up to 83.0% from 79.5%on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. USDJPY up 0.34%.
  • Euro down -0.64%, $1.1501. U.K. CPI y/y at 2.4% vs expected 2.6%. PPI Input m/m at 1.3% vs expected 0.9%. RPI y/y at 3.3% vs expected 3.5%. Meanwhile, UK PM May is in Brussels trying to convince her European Union counterparts of her Chequers’ plan. Speaking before addressing the summit members, PM May said that a deal can be sealed “over the next days and weeks,” with a work from both parts, although hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations faded after weekend failed talks. Sterling down -0.64%, $1.3102.
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m at -0.4% vs expected -0.6%. WTI crude dropped -3.1% to $69.65/bbl, hitting a one-month low, after EIA petroleum data showed a build of 6.5 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ended October 12. USDCAD up 0.71%, $1.3026.
  • S&P 500 down -0.03%, 2,809.21. Nasdaq up 0.03%, 7,278.63. Nikkei up 1.29%, 22,841.12.
  • late morning surge (EST) in the financials sector (+0.9%) lifted the benchmark index from its early depths, the S&P 500 was down as much as -1.0% and the release of the September FOMC minutes prompted another small bout of volatility in the afternoon (EST). The softer-than-expected data hit the consumer discretionary sector (-0.7%) in particular, with home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD 185.17, -8.41) and Lowe’s (LOW 102.44, -3.54) dropping -4.3% and -3.3%, respectively. The two companies were also downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse. Investors initially had a muted reaction to U.S. Bancorp’s (USB 52.90, +1.93) better-than-expected earnings, but shares eventually started taking off, ending the day with a gain of 3.8%. Goldman Sachs (GS 228.28, +6.58, +3.0%) and Morgan Stanley (MS 47.19 , +1.25, +2.7%) also had strong performances, extending yesterday’s post-earnings gains.
  • In other earnings news, Netflix (NFLX 364.70, +18.30) climbed 5.3% after reporting higher-than-expected subscriber growth. The company added nearly seven million new subscribers last quarter, with six of the seven million coming from overseas. In addition, Netflix expects to add nine million more in the fourth quarter.

Cryptocurrency Updates: 18 Oct 2018

CME: Average Daily Volume for Bitcoin Futures Grew 41% in Q3

Average daily volumes for bitcoin futures trading saw a significant jump in the third quarter compared to the last period. Average daily volume hit 5,053 contracts in the third quarter, representing a 41 percent increase from 3,577 contracts in the second quarter. CME provided data on open interest, which represents the total number of unsettled contracts held by those trading in the market. According to CME, rising from 1,523 contracts in the first quarter to 2,873 contracts in the third quarter represents growth from the second quarter’s 2,405.

US CFTC Official Tackles Accountability in an Era of Smart Contracts

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Brian Quintenz as addressed the question of accountability in an era of disintermediated finance and smart contracts. He proposed that when it comes enforcement actions, not only users, but the coders themselves may be held to account. Quintenz framed his discussion by noting the complications that arise when applying traditional legal paradigms to “the disintermediated world of blockchain,” emphasizing the challenges that the emerging sector poses to the CFTC’s particular role, which is intermediary-focused and centers on preserving market integrity through oversight. He focused in particular on smart contracts, which function on a blockchain and are programmed to interact according to binding, pre-specified rules. He noted that in the past, the CFTC has generally prohibited prediction markets as contrary to the public interest, only permitting them in limited circumstances when it has found that they operate on a small-scale, non-profit basis, and serve academic purposes.

Cryptocurrencies ‘May Not Qualify as Securities’

Cryptocurrency falls into a legislative gray area in many jurisdictions, which is why governments should take a particularly nuanced approach to developing regulatory frameworks for crypto trading. Carlson Tong Ka-Shing, the current chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) rejected the notion of prohibiting cryptocurrency trading platforms as a viable regulatory strategy. Such moves would prove fruitless in the current world, where trading can be freely conducted without concern for national borders, he argued. Angela Kwan, the recently hired chief operating officer of Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Bitmex, said the SFC should follow the lead of the U.S. and other leading markets with regard to international crypto regulations. She claimed that the futures products that are now being traded in the U.S., for example, illustrate how regulators can help to support the growth of the crypto industry.