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We aim to empower our community to view the world and markets as Professional Traders do.

Led by Phan Vee Leung, CIO & Founder of TrackRecord with over 20 years of professional trading experience heading teams in Investment Banks (JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Chase Manhattan, Deutsche Bank) and Hedge Funds. We cut out the noise to bring timely, professional market analysis to your doorstep.

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Will the Bank of Japan stop money-printing? With

Will the Bank of Japan stop money-printing?

With inflation rising in Japan, this is just a matter of when, not if. The probability of this increases as time passes and as inflation remains persistently high, or worse, continues to climb.

The market’s estimate of this probability will also start to rise as we continue to approach the end of current Bank of Japan governor Kuroda’s term (in April). The new governor is likely to have a different point of view that the current governor has.

For now, Kuroda continues to insist that he will stick to his policy of unlimited money printing to cap the Japanese government bond yields at low levels. However, the clock is ticking…

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/will-the-bank-of-japan-stop-money?sd=pf or check the link in BIO to access our substack

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #BoJ

Bla bla bla That’s what the market heard althou

Bla bla bla

That’s what the market heard although the US Federal Reserve Chair reiterated his views on inflation and how he’s going to use monetary policy to crush it. Higher interest rates, and higher interest rates for longer, but it’s the same speech on a different day.

The market barely reacted and went about its own way as investors are now just waiting for more data on the inflation front. As we have been saying, and we’re likely to keep saying, the Fed will keep talking tough on inflation.

Of course, the old adage is not to fight the Fed, but remember, what the Fed is saying is based on its inflation forecasts. They are the same people who insisted inflation was transitory until it wasn’t, and it was at 8%.

So, they’re likely to keep forecasting that inflation will remain a problem until the day that it isn’t and the market is trading on that narrative for now. Regardless of what the Fed says, the market is now highly data-dependent.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/bla-bla-bla?sd=pf or check our Link in BIO

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #Powell #Australia #WorldBank

WEEK AHEAD Monday: Eurozone unemployment is expect

WEEK AHEAD
Monday: Eurozone unemployment is expected to stay at 6.5%.
Tuesday: Riksbank’s International Symposium on Central Bank Independence will be held in Stockholm, Sweden. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda and Federal Reserve Chair Powell are slated to speak.
Wednesday: Australian Consumer Price Index is expected to rise to 7.3% from 6.9% on a Year-on-Year basis.
Thursday: US inflation data (Consumer Price Index) is expected to show price rises slowing to 6.5% from 7.1% YoY.
Friday: US Prelim Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to rise to 60.6 from 59.7, indicating a slightly stronger economy. The Inflation Expectations component of the index will have an influence on risk sentiment and will be well-received by the market if it continues to undershoot expectations.

Confusing market reactions… Prior to the releas

Confusing market reactions…

Prior to the release of the US jobs data (Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate) on Friday, many speculators were expecting the US stock market to sell off aggressively and US interest rates to spike higher if the data showed that the jobs market remains strong.

The data was stronger than expected as more jobs were added in Dec (+223K vs expected +200K) and the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5% from the previous print of 3.6% (while the market expected a rise to 3.7%!).

However, instead of selling off, stocks rallied, and US bond yields fell aggressively (Nasdaq was up nearly 3% and 2-year bond yield fell nearly a quarter of a percent) because something else was at play. Average Hourly Earnings showed that wages were rising at a slower pace than expected (4.6% year-on-year vs 5% expected).

What does this mean? This means that although the jobs market remains strong, wage rises are moderating. So, inflation is slowing down, but the economy remains healthy. This is a good outcome after the aggressive interest rate hikes that we have seen this year.

If we continue to see moderation in inflation, the optimism that the US Fed is able to get inflation towards its target of 2% without cracking the economy will grow. That will be good for risk sentiment and risk assets.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/confusing-market-reactions?sd=pf or check our LINK IN BIO

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #NFP #LFPR #Wages

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