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Led by Phan Vee Leung, CIO & Founder of TrackRecord with over 20 years of professional trading experience heading teams in Investment Banks (JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Chase Manhattan, Deutsche Bank) and Hedge Funds. We cut out the noise to bring timely, professional market analysis to your doorstep.

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What’s new with what Fed Chair Powell said? -

What’s new with what Fed Chair Powell said?

- Time to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes
- Do not intend to crash the economy and put people out of jobs
- Interest rates will reach higher levels and will stay there for longer, but the Fed will hike interest rates at a more moderate pace to get there
- Not sure what the terminal interest rate will be. Could be lower or higher than currently projected.

Not much is new except that the Federal Reserve now acknowledges that hiking too quickly too soon may result in over-hiking. So, they will take it at a more moderate pace.

The market loved it with Nasdaq rising more than 4.5% and S&P 500 rising more than 3%. As we have been constantly saying, the market is now at a stage where what the Fed says only matters for the next meeting.

What the Fed says about the meetings thereafter may have a short-term reaction but are going to be mostly ignored. These are the same people who insisted that inflation was transitory till it got to 8%. Then they started hiking interest rates aggressively like it was the best thing to do since eating sliced bread.

Now they are telling us that inflation will stay persistently high and interest rates will need to go much higher and stay there for much longer. They will keep insisting that until they don’t.

In the meantime, inflation and jobs data are starting to undershoot expectations. If the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, undershoots expectations later today, we will see yet another manic buying spree in risk assets.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/whats-new-with-what-fed-chair-powell?sd=pf or check our substack through the link in BIO

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #Powell #China

Brace for the storm The market will likely be vo

Brace for the storm

The market will likely be volatile for the rest of the week as key data points of inflation (US PCE tomorrow) and the jobs market (ADP & JOLTS today & Non-farm Payrolls on Friday) will be released. We will also be hearing from the US Federal Reserve Chair Powell as he will be giving a speech later today on the economic outlook, inflation and the jobs market.

Expect Powell to continue to be hawkish in stressing the need for continued rate hikes, but should data continue to be softer than expected, the market will likely be ignoring the hawkish talk.

Without a surprise to the upside in jobs and inflation data, dips are likely to be bought in the days ahead.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/brace-for-the-storm?sd=pf or check our link in bio (Substack)

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #China #Covid

WEEK AHEAD Tuesday: Japanese unemployment rate is

WEEK AHEAD

Tuesday: Japanese unemployment rate is expected to fall to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Wednesday: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change expected to fall to 200k from 239k. US JOLTS Job Openings expected to reflect a decline of jobs opening from 10.72M to 10.36M.Fed Chair Powell expected to speak about the economic outlook, inflation, and the labour market at the Brooking Institution (2.30 am SGT).

Thursday: US PCE Price index expected to decline to 5.9% from the previous print of 6.2%.

Friday: US Nonfarm payrolls expected to decline to 200k from 261k while the US unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7%

The Fed’s comments are consistent… As we have

The Fed’s comments are consistent…

As we have been stressing of late, the US Federal Reserve officials’ comments on inflation and the path of its future policy moves will likely remain hawkish even as they start to slow the pace of their interest rate hikes. This is because they do not want to trigger too much optimism in the markets that they will stop hiking interest rates any time soon.

Their forward guidance for the next meeting will be important but beyond that, their opinions are subject to how inflation and job data evolves as time passes. As such, do not be too spooked by their projections about what they’re going to do next year. They will keep talking tough on inflation because they know how easily the market will overreact if they start to talk less aggressively about inflation.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/the-feds-comments-are-consistent?sd=pf or check our link in bio

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #China #BlockFi

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