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What’s the UK madness all about? Due to inflati

What’s the UK madness all about?

Due to inflation being persistently high, and Interest rates having been too low for far too long, the Bank of England started hiking interest rates to slow the economy and try to bring inflation lower.

So, the theory is:
Increase interest rates -> More costly to borrow to spend and invest -> slows economy -> lower inflation.

Now as the economy is slowing, primarily because of higher energy prices but also possibly due to higher interest rates, the new UK government decides to boost the economy.

So, they implemented a 45 billion pounds package of tax cuts and subsidies to cap energy prices for households.

Theory of this is:
More government spending (tax cuts, subsidies, free money) -> more disposable income for the taxpayers -> boost the economy -> higher inflation
This means while the central bank is trying to slow inflation, the government is doing quite the opposite.

Also, more govt spending -> more govt borrowing -> higher borrowing interest rates the market charges the govt.

Because of this extra borrowing that is needed to fund this profligate tax cuts (which primarily benefits higher income taxpayers i.e. maximum tax rate for high earners was slashed from 45% to 40%!), the UK government bond market melted.

The 30-year bond yield rose from 3.74% last week to a peak of 5.08% because of the extra borrowing and fell from the peak to 3.92% (a whopping 1.16%) yesterday after the BoE’s intervention.

The IMF has criticised the UK tax cuts in a rare swift rebuke against a developed nation. This sort of advice is usually reserved for badly managed emerging market countries which have been tottering on economic collapse for a while. This shows how idiotic this tax cut for the rich and super rich is.

If the tax cuts are not revised, the intervention will only be a short term relief for the GBP.

More bond buying by the BoE -> more GBP printed -> lower value of GBP.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/whats-the-uk-madness-all-about?sd=pf

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #Fed #UK

The Macro Picture for the week! Focus is all on th

The Macro Picture for the week! Focus is all on the Fed.

#FederalReserve #Trading #FX #FXTrading #StockTrading #Stocks #Markets

Daily thoughts for the day: *Enjoy the Lull* As

Daily thoughts for the day:

*Enjoy the Lull*

As investors await the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting decision that is scheduled for tomorrow, the market is likely to take a breather and trade within recent ranges. When the market is in a holding pattern, there really is no need to force a trade.

Enjoy the lull because there’s likely to be a storm of volatility in the aftermath of the Fed’s policy decision.

Read the rest of our daily on substack: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/enjoy-the-lull?sd=pf

#FXTrading #Trading #Investing #FederalReserve #Inflation

What to expect with risk sentiment this week. Ge

What to expect with risk sentiment this week.

Get more about markets with TrackRecord Premium today: https://trackrecordasia.com/membership

#Stocks #FederalReserve #Inflation #Labor #Labour

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