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We aim to empower our community to view the world and markets as Professional Traders do.

Led by Phan Vee Leung, CIO & Founder of TrackRecord with over 20 years of professional trading experience heading teams in Investment Banks (JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Chase Manhattan, Deutsche Bank) and Hedge Funds. We cut out the noise to bring timely, professional market analysis to your doorstep.

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Market Calls:

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Here are some trades we have called so far and our thought process behind it. [SCROLL PIC FOR MORE TRADE CALLS]

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Th e US PCE Price Index to be released later today

Th e US PCE Price Index to be released later today will be key to market sentiment. It is the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and it is expected to show that prices rose +3.5% year-on-year, a touch higher than the previous month’s +3.3%. The core index which strips out the more volatile food and energy components are expected to moderate to +3.9%, from +4.2%.

If the data should show that inflation is moderating towards the 2% target faster than expected, the recently weak risk sentiment will be boosted as it would mean that the Fed may not need to be so adamant about keeping interest rates higher for longer.

Risk assets have been weak of late, and a relief on the inflation front will likely lead to speculators short-covering and reducing their risk ahead of the weekend.
#stockmarket #trading #invest #marketnews #headline #singaporeinvestors

The US government is risking a shutdown if the pol

The US government is risking a shutdown if the politicians do not pass budget legislation before the 30 September deadline that will allow it to keep spending and paying its bills. A shutdown will risk a ratings downgrade by Moody’s, the only of the 3 major ratings agencies, that still have US Sovereign Debt rating at AAA, the highest of credit ratings.

The US Treasury Bond market which has been under pressure, with the 10-year US bond yield hitting 16-year highs 4.56%, since the US Federal Reserve’s message that it will keep interest rates higher for longer do not need a ratings downgrade to add to its troubles. As the deadline approaches, expect risk sentiment to weaken and market volatility to increase if no deal seems imminent.

Adjust your risk positions accordingly, as although the risk of a shutdown is small (assuming rational decision-making by the politician), it is not zero and the risk is rising as the days pass.
#stockmarket #marketnews #newsupdate #trading #investing

The 10-year US bond yield surged to new 16-year hi

The 10-year US bond yield surged to new 16-year highs yesterday when it jumped 11 basis points (0.11%) to 4.55%. This is the interest rate that the US Government will have to pay when it borrows from the rest of the world (through a 10-year loan). With record deficits to fund, the US government will have to keep borrowing until it reins in its fiscal spending.

When asked at his press conference after the policy meeting last week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that he doesn’t think that US bond yields are rising because of inflation fears, but rather because of the strong economy and higher bond supply. The higher bond supply is because of the incessant borrowing that the US government needs to do to fund its spending.

Another reason, which he didn’t bring up, is also because China which used to be a huge buyer of US Treasury bonds is not buying anymore (see chart). As of June 2023, China’s holdings amounted to $835 billion, the lowest in 14 years. Part of the reason is because the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes have caused the value of bond portfolios to plummet. The other reason is because China has simply stopped buying. If you keep antagonising the 2nd biggest lender who funds your spending habits and calling her a strategic rival, you don’t need rocket science to know that eventually she’ll stop lending you money.

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#usbond #marketnews #stockmarket #trading #investment

WEEK AHEAD: Mon: 🇪🇺 (EUR) ECB President Lag

WEEK AHEAD:

Mon:
🇪🇺 (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speech

Tues:

Wed:
🇯🇵 (JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Thurs:
🇺🇸 (USD) GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final

Fri:
🇪🇺 (JPY) Euro Area September CPI
🇺🇸 (USD) US PCE Price Index
🇺🇸 (USD) Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final

#economic #trading #investing

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