Trade Opportunities: AUDUSD, US 10YT

AUD/USD Daily Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart   LONG 
If the support on the daily Ichimoku chart holds, it will be worth a shot to go long AUD/USD again soon…

 

 

US Treasury 10-Year Yield Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart
US Treasury 10yr Yield is testing the cloud support on the weekly Ichimoku chart. A breach of this will increase the enthusiasm of the bears…

 

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members of our weekly subscription product – “CIO’s Week Ahead Update”, which helps to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

2 min Market Summary: 11 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Mon, Dec 10, 08:00 GMT (UTC +08:00)

USDJPY, +0.60%, $113.19.
EURUSD, -0.39%, $1.1356.
GBPUSD, -1.25%, $1.2560.
USDCAD, +0.52, $1.3398.
NZDUSD, +0.44%, $0.6874.

S&P500, +0.18%, 2,637.72
Nasdaq, +0.74%, 7,020.52
Nikkei Futures, -2.12%, 21,219.50  

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings at 7.08M vs expected 7.22M. The 2-yr yield added two basis points to 2.72%, and the 10-yr yield added one basis point to 2.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.7% to 97.20, benefiting largely at the expense of Sterling, which dropped -1.25% against the Dollar as news of the delayed vote on the UK-EU Brexit plan stirred angst about the future of leadership in the UK and the specter of a messy “no deal” Brexit.
  • In Europe, the continuing protests in France are beginning to worry investors, as the continent’s second-largest economy is in danger of seeing a sharp slowdown in activity as a result of the unrest over the past few weeks. What started out as a protest against carbon taxes has morphed into a general protest movement that threatens the political status of Emmanuel Macron. Macron tried to reassert control over a nation wrecked by increasingly violent protests with offers of tax relief for struggling workers and pensioners, and an exceptional admission on Monday that “I might have hurt people with my words.” Even as Macron broke his silence on the protests in a brief televised address, yellow-vested demonstrators vowed to keep up the pressure on a man they see as arrogant, out-of-touch and “president of the rich.” IMF head Christine Lagarde noted over the weekend that she was certain that the protests would have an economic impact.
  • U.K. GDP m/m inline at 0.10%. Manufacturing Production m/m at -0.9% vs expected 0.0%. In Brexit, it wasn’t surprising news since it had been speculated before the open that PM May was likely going to announce today a delay in the vote. It was also reported that the vote would have likely been defeated had it been held on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the announcement crystallized the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit matter, which left it akin to pouring fuel on a fire of uncertainty among a host of other issues that have been weighing on investor sentiment and stock prices.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

  • The S&P 500 gained 0.18% on Monday in what was yet another volatile day of trading on Wall Street. The benchmark index overcame a loss of -1.9% intraday despite the uncertainty surrounding trade, growth prospects, the path of interest rates, and geopolitics. The major indices fell to session lows shortly after UK Prime Minster Theresa May announced she will be delaying the vote in Parliament originally scheduled for Tuesday on the UK-EU Brexit plan.Monday’s decline also extended the financial sector’s position as the worst-performing group this month with a loss of -8.4%.
  • Notable laggards included Wells Fargo (WFC 48.80, -1.46, -2.9%) and Bank of America (BAC 24.76, -0.67, -2.6%). Within the S&P 500, the information technology (+1.4%) and communication services (+0.7%) outperformed to help lift the broader market from its early struggles. Semiconductor stocks helped lead the tech sector rebound effort.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 1.4% with Broadcom (AVGO 239.25, +10.69, +4.5%) extending its post-earnings gains from Friday.  Facebook (FB 141.85, +4.43, +3.2%), meanwhile, carried the communication services sector following an announcement after Friday’s close that it will be boosting its share buyback authorization by $9 billion.
BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS 

Major South Korean City to Build Blockchain-Enabled Virtual Power Plant

South Korea’s government will spend 4 billion Korean won (KRW) (about $3.5 million) to set up a blockchain-enabled virtual power plant (VPP) in the city of Busan. A virtual power plant is a cloud-based distributed power plant that integrates the idle capacities of multiple energy resources in order to optimize power generation.The project will be represented at a national competition in 2019 hosted by the largest electric utility in South Korea, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). The blockchain-powered VPP project is proposed by the city of Busan, as well as major local companies and institutions including Pusan National University (PNU), energy management firm Nuri Telecom, Busan City Gas, and real estate firm Korea Industrial Complex Corporation and is set to aggregate such power sources as Busan-area factories and public facilities of energy storage system (ESS), as well as solar power plants.

Facebook Seeks Blockchain Talent for Five New Company Roles

Facebook has listed five new blockchain-related jobs on its careers page within the past three weeks, two of which were first listed Dec. 5 and 6. The positions currently open for applicants are two software engineer roles, a data scientist post and a data engineer, all full-time roles at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California. The ultimate goal is to help billions of people with access to things they don’t have now — that could be things like equitable financial services, new ways to save, or new ways to share information. The ads for the two “Software Engineer, Blockchain” roles indicate that blockchain the new specialists would help build the “large distributed components that run Facebook,” which need to scale to serve “millions of requests per second,” and to do so “with sub-second latency and in a fault tolerant manner.” Preferred qualifications include “[e]xperience with distributed computing (Hive/Hadoop)” (for the role of “Data Scientist, Blockchain”) and coding experience in a range of languages such as “C, C++, Java, C#, Perl, PHP, Hack and/or Python” (“Software Engineer, Blockchain”).

PayPal Launches Blockchain-Based Innovation Reward System for Employees

Major global online payments system PayPal has launched a blockchain-based reward system for its employees. Employees using the program are granted tokens for participating in innovation-related programs and contributing ideas. These tokens are only valid within PayPal and can be traded among the participants of the program via “public ledger.” On the website designed for the token program, employees can like and comment on and see all the activity going on within PayPal related to innovation. The tokens collected by staff can be exchanged for over 100 “experiences” offered on the platform. The program was prepared by PayPal’s innovation team, which is based in San Jose, California, over a six-month period and was launched in mid-November.

2 min Market Summary: 10 Dec 2018

 

 

IBM Partners with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Blockchain Supply Chain System

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has successfully collaborated with IBM to pilot a blockchain supply chain system. The release notes that ADNOC — a state-owned oil company in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — is reportedly among the world’s leading energy and petrochemical groups, with a daily output of about 3 million barrels of oil and 10.5 cubic feet of natural gas. The pilot project has “provided a single platform that tracks the quantities and financial values of each bilateral transaction” between the involved companies automating the accounting, the release reports. Arabian Gazette also added that in the future, customers and investors will be given access to the data providing seamless integration among stakeholders.

More Chinese Miners Selling Short Following Crypto Market Slump

Chinese miners are reportedly becoming the biggest short sellers both locally and internationally, following an increased number of hedging operations in the current bear market. The severe cryptocurrency market decline in the last month has reportedly caused new generation miners to start hedging their coins to avoid market risks. At the same time, frequent hedging operations make miners the biggest short sellers of Bitcoin (BTC). In late November, cryptocurrency mining operators in China were reportedly selling mining equipment by weight, as opposed to price per unit, as the market slump had resulted in a large drop in mining profitability. Crypto miners were reportedly especially eager to sell the older models, including Antminer S7, Antminer T9, and Avalon A741, as these have reached their “shutdown price.”

Bipartisan Bitcoin Bills to Step up Consumer Protection in the U.S.
Two United States congressmen have introduced two pieces of legislation to help prevent alleged cryptocurrency price manipulation while aiming to position the U.S. at the forefront of innovation within the digital asset industry. In a joint statement, congressmen Darren Soto, a democrat, and republican Ted Budd approvingly noted the potential of virtual currencies, and the technology that powers them, to facilitate economic growth as well as the need for security guarantees for users. In terms of the two bills, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates futures and option markets, as well as other financial regulators will make critical recommendations on fine-tuning the regulatory environment for consumers and businesses.

2 min Market Summary: 7 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Thur, Dec 07, 08:00 GMT (UTC +08:00)

USDJPY, -0.42%, 112.72
EURUSD, +0.28%, 1.1376
GBPUSD, +0.37%,1.2780
USDCAD, +0.28%, 1.3392
NZDUSD, -0.23%, 0.6882

S&P500, -0.15%, 2,695.95
Nasdaq, +0.42%, 7,188.26
Nikkei Futures, -1.91%, 21,501.62

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

  • US ADP Employment Change Nov at 179K vs expected 225K. US Balance of Trade Oct at $-55.5B vs expected $-54.6B. US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Nov at 58.4 vs expected 59.7. US Factory Orders MoM OCT at -2.1% vs expected 0.2%. The data is a worrisome addition to recent hints that the US economy might be slowing and come after major job-cutting announcements from companies like General Motors and Ford. Adding to the volatility is renewed focus on the US yield curve inversion amid US 10Y Treasury yields falling towards 2.88%. This slew of data comes ahead of the government’s official employment report, due out Friday, and which economists project will show a gain of 185,000 non-farm jobs.
  • OPEC ended talks with an agreement that production cuts are needed but did not set a level for the cuts. Russia had flexed its muscles by so far refusing to commit to the big output curb that Saudi Arabia is demanding. It is the latest example of how OPEC is under pressure from forces that are re-drawing the global oil map, leaving it increasingly dependent on the support of non-member RussiaOil prices tumbled Thursday after Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih, while leaving the OPEC meeting, said he was “not confident” OPEC and its allies will reach an agreement on reducing oil production. Meanwhile, political pressure from US President Donald Trump has also added to the negative picture. Earlier, he tweeted: “Hopefully, OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices.” The added pressure should be seen in light of worsening US-Saudi diplomatic relations following the killing of journalist Khashoggi in October. OPEC is expected to discuss production levels with its allies, led by Russia, on Friday.
  • Theresa May is being urged by senior Tories to postpone next week’s crunch vote on her Brexit deal to allow time to plead for a better agreement in Brussels, as Downing Street scrambled to head off a big Eurosceptic rebellion. Many MPs have expressed concerns about the backstop mechanism, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border on the island of Ireland. It would mean Northern Ireland staying aligned to some EU rules, which many MPs say is unacceptable. The UK would also not be able to leave the backstop without EU agreement.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

  • US markets stabilised on Thursday after steep falls earlier in the day spurred by fears about US-China trade tensions and global growth. The latest souring in risk sentiment relates to renewed trade uncertainty as the CFO of Chinese giant Huawei Technologies, Wanzhou Meng, has been arrested by Canadian authorities on extradition claims from the US. The arrest rekindles questions on the outlook for a US-China trade deal. U.S. equities closed up from the lows of the day after a late rally in large technology stocks helped to propel the Nasdaq 100 higher in what was the biggest reversal for the index since April. Helping to ease anxiety on the stock market were comments from two regional Federal Reserve presidents urging policy caution from the U.S. central bank amid mounting economic uncertainties and recent volatility in financial markets.
  • In earnings news, Broadcom Inc (AVGO) on Thursday reported quarterly revenue and profit above analysts’ estimates, driven by strong demand for its enterprise storage and networking products from data centres, sending its shares up 5 percent in extended trading. Canadian athletic apparel maker Lululemon Athletica (LULU) reported a third-quarter profit above analysts’ estimates, driven by a rise in its established store sales and higher online traffic.
BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS 

SEC Again Delays Decision on VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended a rule change proposal allowing the nation’s first bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), pushing the decision deadline to next year. In a notice posted online, the securities regulator said it was extending the review period for the ETF to Feb. 27, 2019. The proposal was first submitted by money manager VanEck and blockchain startup SolidX, who partnered with the Cboe exchange earlier this year. The decision comes after months of uncertainty as a number of previous ETF proposals were rejected by the SEC, most notably in August when the regulator simultaneously rejected nine proposals submitted by ProShares, GraniteShares and Direxion. The rejections were suspended the next day when the SEC announced it would review all of the proposals. The SEC similarly reopened a comment period for this proposal, designating October 17 as the deadline for any statements and October 31 as the deadline for any rebuttals.

Huobi Gains Gibraltar DLT License, Plans Global Exchange Rollout in 2019

Major Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange Huobi has gained a so-called Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) license in Gibraltar and will use its new status to launch an international platform geared to both retail and institutional traders. it will compete with fellow exchanges including Binance, Bittrex and Coinbase in serving traders in as many jurisdictions as possible as regulatory frameworks continue to evolve and it hopes to debut its service in the first half of 2019. Huobi is currently the world’s third largest exchange by daily trade volume, seeing about $466 million in trades over the past 24 hours. The blockchain platform from Gibraltar’s stock exchange also gained regulatory approval this month, while state-sponsored initiatives are also hoping to address the demand for blockchain-related skills.

Bitwise Launches Bitcoin, Ethereum Beta Funds to ‘Capitalize’ on Market Downturn

Digital asset manager Bitwise has launched two new beta funds for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The launch of the new products aims to provide a “low-cost” and “liquid” means of capturing returns on both high-profile assets, which are currently trading 81 and 92 percent respectively below their all-time highs. According to a press release, the funds will not charge premiums, exit fees, impose lockups, nor charge extra expenses “outside the stated management fee.” Investors’ holdings will be kept in cold storage wallets held by an unnamed “institutional third-party custodian,” and Bitwise says it will provide clients with K-1 tax documents each year. Bitwise has also filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a regulated multi-cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF), which has been designed to include ten cryptocurrencies. If approved, the ETF would track the Bitwise HOLD 10 Private Index Fund that was founded last November.

2 min Market Summary: 6 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Wed, Dec 06, 08:00 GMT (UTC +08:00)

USDJPY, +0.20%, 113.01
EURUSD, +0.04%, 1.1349
GBPUSD, +0.04%,1.2725
USDCAD, +0.77%, 1.3363
NZDUSD, -0.53%, 0.6892

S&P500 CLOSED
Nasdaq CLOSED
Nikkei Futures, -0.53%, 21,919.33

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

  • US business optimism has fallen in recent weeks amid uncertainty over tariff disputes, rising interest rates and continued labor shortages, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book showed most districts’ economies expanded, though at least four signalled growth cooled. The impact of President Donald Trump’s punitive import tariffs has become more widespread, with cost increases felt by manufacturers, retailers and restaurants, restraining demand. Even so, most regions of the US showed modest or moderate growth, and there were continued reports of companies increasing wages and benefits to attract and retain qualified workers, the report said.
  • The US 10-year bond yield fell to its lowest point since mid-September. A string of comments from the Chinese authorities, however, lifted market sentiment in the early morning Asian trading session. The comments indicated that the trade meeting at the G20 meeting was ‘very successful’, that China will implement specific items agreed upon as soon as possible and that the US and China will proactively push forward negotiations within the 90-day time frame. The Chinese currency strengthened the most since 2005 after the weekend’s trade discussion, but weakened somewhat overnight.
  • GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI NOV AT 50.4 vs expected 52.2. This was the worst reading in 15 months with business optimism weakest since June 2016. “A sharp deterioration in service sector growth leaves the economy flatlining in November as Brexit concerns intensified… suggest that the pace of economic growth has stalled…November saw the worst performance since February 2013… The surveys are so far consistent with 0.1% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, thanks to the expansion seen back in October, but growth momentum has since been lost and risks are clearly tilted to the downside”, noted by economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey.
  • Early yesterday, the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke the Article 50 notification (which started the Brexit clock), as long as it has parliamentary backing (given the notification itself required approval in the House of Commons). In the House of Commons, PM Theresa May lost three votes. With more power given to the House of Commons, it will be closely watched if May’s deal falls through on Tuesday, which seems very likely at this point. Theresa May is planning a final attempt to win over Tory opponents of her Brexit deal by raising the prospect of Parliament being able to veto her controversial Irish backstop plan before it comes into operation.
  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its benchmark interest rate steady at +1.75% as it warned that low prices for oil from the western province of Alberta could affect the pace of future rate increases. Though it was expected for the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, what caught everyone off guard was their comment that there may be more room for non-inflationary growth. Back in October when they raised interest rates, the monetary policy statement was adjusted to suggest more aggressive tightening in 2019 but they took on a more cautious tone today in recognition of slower growth momentum in Q4. The decline in oil prices is becoming a bigger problem for the central bank because it not only impacts trade but also inflation and overall growth. The BoC admitted today that the energy sector may be materially weaker than they had previously thought. Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech in Toronto Thursday (08:35 EST), which will likely provide more clues on the central bank’s outlook.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

  • US markets were closed to mark former President George H.W. Bush’s death, but the effect of Wall Street’s turmoil in the previous session, when New York-listed shares tumbled more than 3 per cent, was felt in Asia and Europe.
BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS 

Ripple, NEM & Two Others Launch ‘Blockchain for Europe’ Association
Four major blockchain companies have formed a “Blockchain for Europe” Association which seeks to promote the understanding and proactive regulation of blockchain and other distributed ledger (DLT) technologies across the continent. Those companies are Ripple, the NEM Foundation, Emurgo – which supports commercial ventures based on the Cardano blockchain – and “smart ledger” development firm Fetch.AI. The newly-formed association will aim to educate those in EU and member state institutions about the technology’s potential and advocate for future “smart” regulation that will be conducive to innovation and help the continent “shape the global agenda” on blockchain. On Nov. 27, the Association hosted a Blockchain for Europe Summit at the European Parliament (EP) in Brussels, together with the four largest EP groups: The European People’s Party group (EPP), The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D).

Overstock’s Medici Ventures Acquires Stake in Agricultural Blockchain Firm
Medici Ventures, the blockchain venture arm of Overstock.com Inc., has purchased $2.5 million in equity in agricultural blockchain project GrainChain. Allegedly, the firm’s system provides a platform, by which small- and medium-scale farmers can conduct business outside of their immediate geographic area and cut out middlemen. With the purchase, Medici Ventures now has 10 percent ownership in GrainChain, with the option to further acquire an additional 10 percent. The acquisition will purportedly allow GrainChain to expand its market share in Central and South America. Medici Ventures has also invested in Israeli-based technology company VinX to develop a blockchain-powered wine futures platform. VinX plans to develop a token-based digital wine futures platform based on the Bordeaux futures model, that will enable the trade of wine futures on a blockchain platform.

Top Cryptocurrencies See Slight Gains, Bitcoin Hovers Under $4,000
Most of the top twenty cryptocurrencies are in the green, having overcome yesterday’s losses, with Bitcoin (BTC) hovering under the $4,000 mark. During the day, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow corridor between $3,768 and $4,091. On its weekly chart, BTC has reached a low of $3,755 before touching a high of $4,404. Today, the CEO of Japanese fintech firm and crypto exchange operator Quoine predicted that BTC will “surpass” its all-time price highs by the end of 2019. The second largest crypto by market capitalization Ripple (XRP) is trading at around $0.352, having gained 0.83 percent. The coin dipped to its lowest price point of the week at $0.349, while the intraweek high of $0.399 was reached on Nov. 28. Ethereum (ETH) is maintaining its position as the third largest coin by market cap, which is over $11.4 billion. ETH is trading around $110, up 1.68 percent.  The main losers in the top 20 cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and EOS, which are down over 6 percent on the day and are trading at $149 and $2.43, respectively.

2 min Market Summary 5 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Tues, Dec 05, 08:00 GMT (UTC +08:00)

USDJPY, -0.86%, 112.69
EURUSD, -0.11%, 1.1342
GBPUSD, -0.04%, 1.2719
USDCAD, +0.45% 1.3257
NZDUSD, +0.14%, 0.6938
S&P500 , -3.24%, 2,700.06
Nasdaq, -3.80%, 7,158.43
Nikkei Futures, -2.39%, 22,036.05

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

  • US 10Y yields dropped below the strong support level at 3% overnight, as equity markets reversed some of the gains from the previous day as trade optimism faded. The move lower in yields came when US breakevens were already under renewed pressure, and as the market had to absorb comments from Fed’s Clarida who said he was more concerned about falling short of the 2% target than running above it. The dollar index hit a 10-day low as the slide in US yields continued to weigh on the buck in Asian and early European session.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s push to avoid a so-called “hard Brexit” may be at risk. The pound fell at one point to its lowest level against the dollar this year as MPs voted 311 to 293 in favour of finding the government in contempt. The defeat means the government will now have to publish the legal advice given to Cabinet ministers on the Brexit deal – despite insisting it would not be in the national interest to do so. While the contempt vote was the most surprising of the day, it was the later vote on Tory MP Dominic Grieve’s amendment that could prove the most significant. It ensures MPs can amend any motion the government brings to the House of Commons relating to its divorce deal with the European Union. If the deal is voted down at the first time of asking on December 11, May has 21 days to set out her plan of action in a statement to MPs – though it can now be amended by parliament.
  • RBA has left official interest rates on hold at a record low of 1.5% for the 26th consecutive RBA board meeting, with many analysts expect no rise until 2020. “The global economic expansion is continuing and unemployment rates in most advanced economies are low. There are, however, some signs of a slowdown in global trade, partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector.” RBA governor Philip Lowe said in his statement.
  • Oil price is steady after the sharp increase yesterday, despite Qatar’s surprise announcement that it will leave the OPEC group on 1 January to concentrate on boosting its gas production. The move comes as the cartel struggles in response to falling prices, as well as possible strained relations with Saudi Arabia and pressure from US president Trump.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

  • U.S. stocks plunged, as a litany of concerns wiped out Monday’s rally in risk assets. Trade-sensitive shares sank as US officials scrambled to explain exactly what had been agreed in the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, with Larry Kudlow saying that the agreement was ‘stuff that they’re (Chinese officials) going to look at and presumably implement’. Financial shares got hammered as the yield curve continued to flatten, spurred by hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams who said the strong outlook in 2019 warrants “continued” hikes. Losses accelerated and trading volumes in S&P 500 futures spiked after contracts broke below their 200-day moving average. Traders are even starting to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as 2020.
  • In other corporate news, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) shares ticked slightly higher Tuesday afternoon following an earnings report that was hit by charges from the new tax law but beat analysts’ expectations on an adjusted basis.  Shares gained about 1% in after-hours action following the report, after closing with a 2.8% decline in a rough day for tech stocks.  Major suppliers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone fell Tuesday, after Cirrus Logic (CRUS), a maker of audio chips, reduced its financial guidance for its third quarter, citing “recent weaknesses in the smartphone market.” In its most recent annual filing, Cirrus Logic said Apple accounted for 81% of its sales in its fiscal 2018. Cirrus Logic joined the ranks of companies that have recently cut their outlook, a trend that has underlined concerns about demand prospects for one of the most important product lines in the technology sector. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE), which cut its outlook last month, fell as much as 5.8%. Qorvo Inc. (QRVO), another supplier that recently slashed its forecast, shed as much as 4.1%.

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS 

Singapore: State Agency Backs Blockchain Accelerator Launched by Venture Capital Firm

Singaporean governmental body Enterprise Singapore, along with other partners, has supported a new blockchain accelerator launched by a local venture capital firm. The initiative, dubbed Tribe Accelerator was launched to support later-stage startups. The accelerator is designed for a six-month period and will focus on the mass adoption of blockchain, decentralized applications (DApps), and back-end digital solutions that deal with blockchain. The managers for Tribe Accelerator will initially pick eight start-ups to participate, and the launch of the program is scheduled for Q1 2019. PwC, whose venture branch has backed the blockchain accelerator in Singapore, is also actively exploring blockchain solutions. In August, the “big four” audit giant announced the launch of its own accelerator set to train 1,000 staff in blockchain over two years.

Binance to Launch Its Own Blockchain ‘Binance Chain’ in ‘Coming Months’

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volumes, will launch its own blockchain “Binance Chain” in the “coming months”. The new Binance-backed blockchain aims to provide a basis for creating new cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offering (ICO) tokens, as the company announced: “Binance is pushing for blockchain adoption and doing many things to help advancement of the industry. E.g. we will have the Binance chain ready in the coming months, on which millions of projects can easily issue tokens.” Speaking at the “Decrypting Blockchain for Business” event in Singapore, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated that the new plans actually indicate an old vision of crypto, which will expectedly lead to increasing its adoption on a global scale. The Binance CEO stated that while Binance possessed just 10 percent of the trading volumes they had in January 2018, the volumes are still higher than those of “two or three years ago,” and the business is “still profitable.”

Russian Intellectual Property Court Trials Blockchain to Store Copyright Data

A Russian court dedicated to intellectual property cases has successfully tested a blockchain network for storing copyright data. The technology was reportedly used for the first time in the judicial area in Russia. The court recorded a change in a group of right holders, using a blockchain solution provided by Russian intellectual property startup IPChain. According to IPChain’s president Andrey Krichevsky, this is a precedent for the Russian judicial system. He believes that blockchain could help increase interoperability in the copyright market, as it allows all information stored to be kept up-to-date, which is particularly important for the area of property rights. The court’s representative, Ludmila Novoselova, hinted that the courts’ tech support will further evolve, noting that in five years all the legal disputes will probably be settled online.

 

Trade Opportunities: NASDAQ, EURCAD

NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart  LONG 
The NASDAQ Composite Index has yet again failed to break below and managed to recover to close above the weekly ichimoku cloud. With the 90-day truce in the Trade War, it is now likely to trade higher into the end of the year.

 

EUR/CAD Daily Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart  SHORT 
With EUR/CAD twice failing to sustain closes above the daily Ichimoku clouds, the time to re-initiate short positions on this pair could be soon at hand!

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members of our weekly subscription product – “CIO’s Week Ahead Update”, which helps to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

2 min Market Summary: 4 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES 

USDJPY, -0.04%, 113.44
EURUSD, -0.04%, 1.1366
GBPUSD, +0.13%, 1.2781
USDCAD, -1.01%, 1.318
NZDUSD, +0.86%, 0.6922

S&P500, +1.10%, 2790.37
Nasdaq, +1.52%, 7440.92
Nikkei, +1.00%, 22574.76

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

  • USD ISM Manufacturing PMI at 59.3 vs expected 57.5. A section of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. The spread between 3- and 5-year yields fell to negative 0.6 basis points Monday, dropping below zero for the first time since 2007. The move is seen to be the first signal that the market is putting the Federal Reserve on notice that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching.
  • Markets in Asia were buoyed by the trade agreement between the US and China at last weekend’s G20 meeting. Currencies and equities gapped higher as investors who feared the worst found the outcome satisfactory. However, aside from the initial move at the open, there was no continuation or additional gains during the North American session for stocks, the U.S. dollar or high beta currencies, as investors were not impressed by the “deal.” CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.2 vs expected 50.1.
  • The U.S. national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush on Wednesday will delay the release of several economic data. ADP said it will delay by one day its snapshot on how many new jobs were created in November. The Institute for Supply Management and IHS Markit will do the same for their surveys of U.S. service-oriented companies. The federal government, for its part, will also push back its latest update on third-quarter productivity. Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony to Congress will be rescheduled. This was a highly anticipated meeting because investors are eager to see if Powell clarifies his comments about interest rates last week.
  • Euro ended the day higher versus the US dollar after some headlines suggested that Italy could scale back their deficit plans.
  • On Brexit, early buying dissipated in cable with the pair dropping towards 1.2750 after trading as high as 1.2825. UK PMI Manufacturing reported stronger than expected data at 53.1 vs expected 51.6 but traders ignored the news as Brexit woes continued to dog the pair on reports that as many as one-third of PM May’s party may vote against her deal on December 11.
  • The G20 meeting also provided relief for the oil price, as Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend into 2019 their deal to manage the oil market, known as OPEC+, although Moscow and Riyadh have yet to confirm any fresh output cuts. The announcement opens the door for a deal at the OPEC meeting on Thursday, 6 December. The Kiwi and CAD also traded higher with the loonie rising on the back of the 4.4% recovery in oil prices.
  • In other news, an angry President Trump on Monday called for his ex-personal lawyer Michael Cohen to receive a stiff prison sentence for his admitted crimes, as he accused Cohen of making up “stories to get a GREAT & ALREADY reduced deal for himself.” Trump in a Twitter tirade also accused special counsel Robert Mueller of seeking “lies” from witnesses about Trump — and praised his longtime associate Roger Stone as having the “guts” to withstand pressure from Mueller’s prosecutors to “make up stories” about the president. Trump’s latest rants came three days after lawyers for Cohen asked a judge in a court filing to give him no prison time when he is sentenced Dec. 12 in U.S. District Court in Manhattan for charges brought by Mueller and other federal prosecutors.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

  • Stocks rallied after the U.S. and China declared a truce in their trade war. Stocks in Asia saw healthy gains, notably Chinese equities. The benchmark S&P 500 Index jumped more than 1%, building on gains posted during the biggest weekly increase in almost seven years, after leaders of the two countries agreed to hold off on new tariffs and intensify trade talks. The United States expects China to take immediate action to cut tariffs on U.S. car imports and end intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers as the two countries move toward a broader trade deal, a White House official said on Monday.
  • Amazon briefly became the most valuable company on Wall Street in intraday trade on Monday, days after Microsoft dethroned long-time leader Apple, ending the iPhone maker’s five-year run at the top. However, Amazon’s lead lasted only a few seconds. At the close, Apple was back on top with a 3.49 percent increase in its stock that put its total value at $877 billion. It was followed by Amazon, up 4.86 percent with a market capitalization of $866.6 billion, and then Microsoft, up 1.08 percent and a stock market value of $860.4 billion. The tight race between the trio of high-powered technology stocks coincided with a broad stock market rally after the United States and China agreed on a temporary truce in their ongoing trade dispute.

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS 

Russian Marketplace Allows Users to Sell Items Priced in Cryptocurrency

A new Russian online marketplace, Mentalmarket, that allows users to buy and sell goods and services priced in cryptocurrency has rapidly expanded in recent months and has been publishing a growing number of ads in a dozen categories, from “cryptoindustry” to “real estate.” The platform supports payments in major coins such as bitcoin core (BTC), bitcoin cash (BCH), ether (ETH), litecoin (LTC), zcash (ZEC), Ripple’s XRP and dash. Prices are also displayed in U.S. dollars for convenience. Mentalmarket publishes ads from residents of the Russian Federation and other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Users can log in to the platform if they have a Telegram account. They need to send “start” to @MentalMarket_Bot to request an authorization code, then click “Login via Telegram” on the Mentalmarket website before entering the code. The platform has strict requirements regarding the content of the ads. Unlike darknet marketplaces, Mentalmarket does not facilitate the sale of any items that would be considered illegal in the countries in which it operates. The blacklist includes drugs, alcohol and tobacco products, as well as precious metals and databases with personal or corporate information.

Thai Government Trials Blockchain in Fight Against Tax Fraud

A government agency in Thailand is trialing blockchain tech as a means to track value-added tax (VAT) payments in the country. Allegedly, Thailand’s Revenue Department is considering implementing blockchain to prevent fraudulent VAT refund claims in the country. VAT is a form of consumption tax levied on goods and services. According to Ekniti Nitithanprapas, director-general of the Revenue Department, blockchain would help verify VAT invoices and in turn help eliminate any that were not genuine. The agency is also reportedly planning to tap other emerging technologies such as machine learning, artificial intelligence and Big Data to prevent tax evasion and fraud. The project was aimed to create digital invoice on a blockchain platform as proof of purchase for goods and services, again with the purpose of combating fake invoices and “improve the invoice supervision process.”

GM Patent Touts Blockchain As Data Solution for Self-Driving Cars

General Motors (GM) may be eyeing a blockchain platform to manage data from future fleets of automated cars. A patent application published Thursday by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office details a process by which self-driving cars would be able to store all their data on a distributed ledger. The document, produced by GM Global Technology Operations LLC, further notes that any data stored could be easily shared among the blockchain’s users. Sharing data between different independent platforms is also proposed in the filing. A blockchain exchange for municipalities, local authorities and public facilities such as airports could, it says, determine the “validity of permits and licenses to operate as hacks, taxis, or other for-hire services.” GM has spent considerable time and effort on such autonomous vehicles, announcing in March that it would begin production of their autonomous vehicles next year.

2 min Market Summary: 3 Dec 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

USDJPY, -0.01%, $113.47.
EURUSD, -0.67%, $1.1317        .
GBPUSD, -0.33%, $1.2752.
USDCAD, +0.10, $1.3296
NZDUSD, +0.35%, $0.6882.

S&P500, +0.82%, 2,760.17
Nasdaq, +0.79%, 7,330.54
Nikkei, +0.40%, 22,351.06

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

  • U.S. Chicago PMI at 66.4 vs expected 58.6. U.S. Treasury yield curve saw some flattening with the 2-yr yield adding one basis point to 2.81%, and the 10-yr yield losing three basis points to 3.01%. Also, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 97.20.
  • E.U. CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 2.0% vs expected 2.1%. Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 1.0% vs expected 1.1%. The Euro continues to be undermined by persistent political turmoil in Europe, as Italy can’t come with a budget that satisfies the EU.  
  • On Brexit, Britons kept discussing whether or not to approve the deal and possible alternatives to it, while EU authorities repeat that the deal signed November is the only possible deal. Chances that the UK Parliament will vote May’s plan are low, and to add fuel to the fire, Sam Gyimah, the UK Minister of Science and Universities, resigned in opposition to the agreement.
  • The pace of economic growth in Canada slowed in the third quarter as business investment spending moved lower and the growth in household spending slowed. Canadian GDP m/m at -0.1% vs expected 0.1%.

STOCK MARKET WRAP  

  • The S&P 500 finished strong with a gain of 0.82% on Friday to conclude one of its best weeks of the year. Chip stocks outperformed, evidenced by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.5%, to help lift the heavily-weighted information technology sector. NVIDIA (NVDA 163.43, +6.07, +3.9%) led chip stocks higher, though Apple (AAPL 178.58, -0.97, -0.5%) was unable to gain traction, eventually losing its status as the S&P 500’s largest company by market cap to Microsoft (MSFT 110.89, +0.70, +0.6%).
  • In other corporate news, General Electric (GE 7.50, -0.44) and Marriott (MAR 115.03, -6.81) lost -5.5% and -5.6%, respectively, amid some negative occurrences. A WSJ report indicated that General Electric ignored insurance risks, according to some former employees. Deutsche Bank also lowered its GE price target to $7. Separately, Marriott announced a data breach involving its guest reservation database for its Starwood-branded hotels. Investors turned their attention to the highly-anticipated G-20 Leaders Summit in Argentina, where Trump and China President Xi are expected to take the main stage at a dinner meeting on Saturday.
  • Over the weekend, China and the US agreed to a ceasefire in their trade war on Saturday after high-stakes talks in Argentina between Trump and President Xi Jinping, including no escalated tariffs on Jan. 1. Trump will leave tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at 10 percent at the beginning of the new year, agreeing to not raise them to 25 percent “at this time”, the White House said in a statement. “China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,” it said.

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

Japan’s Financial Regulator to Introduce New ICO Regulations

Japan’s financial regulator is set to introduce new Initial Coin Offering (ICO) regulations to protect investors from fraud. Business operators conducting ICOs will be required to register with Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA). The agency is reportedly planning to submit bills revising financial instruments, exchanges and payment services laws to the ordinary parliamentary session that starts in January. This action has been undertaken “in view of a number of possibly fraudulent ICO cases abroad” as a way “to limit individuals’ investment in ICOs for better protecting them.” the FSA Study Group on Virtual Currency Exchange industry conducted its tenth meeting to discuss ICOs. The tokens emitted during ICOs where classified into three categories: virtual currencies without issuer, virtual currencies with issuer and tokens with issuers that are also obliged to distribute revenues.

G20 Country Leaders Call for International Cryptocurrency Taxation

The G20 countries have called for the taxation of cryptocurrency, as well as its regulation to combat money laundering. The final text of a document jointly delivered by G20 leaders calls for “a taxation system for cross-border electronic payment services.” The article then specifies that under current laws, foreign companies that do “not have a factory or other base in Japan” cannot be taxed by the local government. The publication then cites that the G20 leaders seek to “build a taxation system for cross-border electronic services.” A final version of regulations, after considering proposals from each member state, is reportedly expected to be in place by 2020. The CEO of the company behind the cryptocurrency investment app Circle had called for “normalization at the G20 level” of the crypto industry.

Huawei Cloud Announces Global Launch of its Blockchain Services

Huawei Cloud, the cloud services arm of Huawei Global, has announced the launch of its Blockchain Service (BCS). The service allows global entrepreneurs and developers to create, deploy and manage blockchain applications on Huawei Cloud, at a blistering pace and cheaper cost. Per the announcement, the global launch of BCS will also lay the groundwork for a soon to be released distributed global blockchain platform. BCS is a cloud service that leverages on the blockchain and on some of the advantages inherent in the Huawei Cloud container and security technologies. The company claims that the BCS can be applied in most industries, including the Internet of Things (IoT), data applications and finance. BCS will be able to cover a wide array of scenarios, including but not limited to identity verification, food source tracing, remote healthcare, data transactions etc. Several applications of blockchain technology are being investigated and explored by various enterprises across various industries, but Huawei is taking it a step further by deploying the distributed ledger technology on a cloud service. Deployment is a time-consuming process, and it is essential that developers have a proper understanding of the terminologies and concepts under blockchain technology.

2 min Market Summary: 30 Nov 2018

NOTABLE MOVES  

USDJPY, -0.25%, $113.41.
EURUSD, +0.24%, $1.1393    .
GBPUSD, -0.30%, $1.2786.
AUDUSD, +0.22%, $0.7322.

S&P500, -0.22%, 2,737.80
Nasdaq, -0.25%, 7,273.08
Nikkei, +0.79%, 22,352.51

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

  • In FOMC minutes, almost all Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike “fairly soon,” they also discussed the possibility of changing the language on “further gradual rate hikes.” Dollar continues to remain offered. U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m at 0.1% vs expected 0.2%. Personal Spending m/m at 0.6% vs expected 0.4%. U.S. Treasuries finished near their unchanged marks with the benchmark 10-yr yield losing one basis point to 3.04%. Also, the U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 96.76.
  • At the start of the NY session, Euro was one of the weakest currencies (Low:1.1349) because there were reports that the US would levy tariffs on EU autos before Christmas. Concerns about the impact of the tariffs forced investors to ignore better labor data from Germany and stronger Eurozone confidence. Shortly after the NY open however, the European Commission denied those reports and the Euro recouped its losses. German Prelim CPI m/m at 0.1% vs expected 0.2%.
  • Speculation that there could be a different kind of Brexit deal if the Parliament rejects PM May’s plan were erased after EU’s Chief Negotiator Barnier said that negotiations are over and that now is the time to ratify the deal. Also, PM May said that the UK will leave the EU next March, whether there’s a deal approved or not. U.K. Net Lending to Individuals m/m at 5.0B vs expected 4.5B.

STOCK MARKET WRAP  

  • The S&P 500 trimmed this week’s rally by -0.22% on Thursday with market participants shifting focus to this weekend’s G-20 meeting between Trump and China President Xi Jinping. Though the market succumbed to early profit-taking from Wednesday’s Powell-driven rally, stocks gradually climbed from session lows as news wires heated up with U.S.-China trade headlines. The Wall Street Journal noted (unnamed) officials on both sides are floating the idea of forestalling any further tariffs through the spring to set the stage for a new round of talks to address changes in China’s economic policy. In addition, The South China Morning Post reported that Peter Navarro, a well-known China trade hawk, will be attending the dinner meeting between Trump and President Xi on Saturday. Navarro’s presence at the dinner table briefly unnerved investors.

BLOCKCHAIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS  

Coinbase Adds Privacy-Centric Crypto Zcash to Pro Trading Exchange
Crypto exchange Coinbase Pro is adding privacy coin zcash to its listings. The platform announced that customers can transfer zcash into its professional trading platform, though as with previous additions, users can not yet purchase the token until the exchange has established enough liquidity. Deposits will be accepted for at least 12 hours after the announcement at 18:00 UTC. When trading is enabled, only Coinbase Pro users in most of the U.S., UK, European Union, Canada, Singapore and Australia will be able to access the coin. Due to the nature of the privacy coin, full support is not yet being added. As the post explains, zcash offers both transparent and shielded transaction types, which show different amounts of information about a transaction. Upon official word of the listing from Coinbase Pro, the price of zcash began a significant uptick at 18:00 UTC. Just five minutes later the cryptocurrency had jumped 15 percent to reach a 9-day high of $99.13, according to data from the Binance exchange.

Galaxy Digital Lost $136 Million in the First Three Quarters of 2018
Mike Novogratz’s crypto investment bank Galaxy Digital has lost $136 million in the first three quarters of 2018. Galaxy Digital’s realized and unrealized losses in Q3 amounted to $41 million, which when combined with the results of previous quarters, amounts to the firm being out $136 million so far this year. The firm’s share price also dropped to a record low after tumbling 55 percent this month. Founded earlier this year, the company explained that the losses were mainly due to tumbling prices of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP), and Ethereum (ETH). Earlier in November, Novogratz predicted that Bitcoin would surge to as high as “$20,000 or more” in 2019. In an interview with U.K.-based Financial News, the industry expert stated that Bitcoin can end this year at around $8,900 before “taking out” $6,800.

Huobi Cryptocurrency Exchange Launches Derivative Market
Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange Huobi has launched the Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM). Huobi presented its new platform at the Cryptofrontiers conference in New York City today, stressing that the Huobi DM allows customers engage in cryptocurrency contract trading on both rising and falling cryptocurrency prices. The platforum purportedly provides tools for hedging and controlling risk and uncertainty. Contract trading allows users to purchase and sell digital currencies at predetermined prices at specified times in the future, giving investors and traders an opportunity to open both long and short positions. Huobi notes that Huobi DM is currently in beta testing and is not available for customers in the U.S., Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, among others. Under Chinese law, any company with more than three Communist Party member employees must set up its own branch, while until recently, the practice was mostly confined to state enterprises. Huobi thus became evidently the first cryptocurrency industry business to embrace the tradition.