Trade Opportunity: Attempt to break above the daily Ichimoku cloud have failed

EURCAD Daily Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart    –  SHORT

EUR/CAD: The attempt to break above the daily Ichimoku cloud seems to have failed. Lower levels should be tested in the days to come.

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

2 Min Market Summary: 23 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue, Apr 23, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, -0.09%, $97.28    
USDJPY, +0.01%, $111.93    
EURUSD, +0.13%, $1.1260  
GBPUSD, -0.08%, $1.2982
USDCAD, -0.27%, $1.3346
AUDUSD, -0.16%, $0.7136
NZDUSD, -0.04%, $0.6682

There were no notable prints on Monday as most banks remained closed for Easter.

U.S. Treasuries finished slightly lower in a tight-ranged session that included some yield-curve steepening. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 2.39%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 2.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.09% to 97.29.

Oil prices rose after the U.S. decided to end its waivers for countries to import oil from Iran. The waivers will expire May 2, and the decision caused some concern about oil supply despite the move not being entirely surprising. WTI crude settled above $65 per barrel, hitting its highest level since Oct.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.10%, 2,907.97 
Nasdaq, +0.31%, 7,713.49
Nikkei Futures, +0.25%, 22,253.0    

S&P 500 increased 0.1% on Monday, supported by strength in energy stocks amid a noticeable increase in oil prices ($65.65, +1.62, +2.5%).

Kimberly-Clark (KMB 130.25, +6.70, +5.4%) and Halliburton (HAL 31.09, -0.04, -0.1%) were some of the more notable companies to report earnings on Monday. Shares of Kimberly-Clark climbed 5.4% after the company beat top and bottom-line estimates. Halliburton beat revenue estimates, but the stock was unable to rise alongside the broader energy space.

In other corporate news, Boeing (BA 375.17, -4.90, -1.3%) and Tesla (TSLA 262.75, -10.51, -3.9%) were subject to some negative attention on Monday. The New York Times suggested Boeing’s South Carolina factory, which produces its 787 Dreamliner, fostered a culture that valued “production speed over quality.” Separately, a Chinese surveillance video depicted a parked Tesla vehicle appearing to catch fire and explode. TSLA was also downgraded to Underperform from In-line at Evercore ISI.

2 Min Market Summary: 22 Apr 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

As of Fri, Apr 20, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.47%, $97.47                    
USDJPY, -0.08%, $111.97                    
EURUSD, -0.58%, $1.1231            
GBPUSD, -0.37%, $1.2998            
USDCAD, +0.26%, $1.3376        
AUDUSD, -0.39%, $0.7151    
NZDUSD, -0.67%, $0.6683    

On Thursday, U.S. Treasuries finished on a higher note, pushing yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 2.38%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 2.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.47% to 97.46. WTI crude increased 0.4% to $64.03/bbl.

U.S. Total retail sales in March increased 1.6% (consensus +0.9%). Sales strength was broad-based with nice gains seen across discretionary spending categories. This data will compute well in the calculation of the goods component for personal consumption expenditures in the Q1 GDP report. Initial claims for the week ending April 13 decreased by 5,000 to 192,000 (consensus 208,000). Continuing claims for the week ending April 6 decreased by 63,000 to 1.653 million.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.16%, 2,905.03
Nasdaq, +0.12%, 7,689.72

Nikkei Futures, -0.72%, 22,110.0                    

S&P 500 increased 0.16% on Thursday to close out the holiday-shortened trading week. Leadership from the industrials sector (+1.1%) and a turnaround in the health care sector (+0.1%) contributed to the upside bias, as most sectors finished little changed.

In IPO news, Zoom Video Communications (ZM 62.00, +26.00, +72.2%, 15.90B) and Pinterest (PINS 24.40, +5.40, +28.4%, 10.1B) made their public debuts on Thursday. Zoom opened at $65.00 after pricing at $36.00, and Pinterest opened at $23.75 after pricing at $19.00.

2 Min Market Summary: 18 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP

As of Thu, Apr 18, Singapore Time zone UTC+8
 
Dollar Index, -0.03%, $97.01         
USDJPY, +0.03%, $112.04                
EURUSD, +0.14%, $1.1296     
GBPUSD, -0.08%, $1.3038            
USDCAD, -0.01%, $1.3350        
AUDUSD, -0.05%, $0.7172    
NZDUSD, -0.57%, $0.6725    
 

U.S. Treasuries finished little changed in another tight-ranged session. The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 2.40%, and the 10-yr yield was unchanged at 2.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.01. WTI crude lost 0.4% to $63.78/bbl.

The latest economic reports suggest that China’s massive stimulus package is working. Consumer spending (8.7% vs expected 8.3%) and manufacturing activity (8.5% vs expected 5.6%) rebounded strongly in the month of March. GDP growth (6.4% vs expected 6.3%) remained steady in the first quarter despite tepid global demand and a US trade war. These reports drove Aussie to a fresh 1 month high and took Kiwi off its lows, but the rallies were unsustainable as it is far too early to declare a bottom in China’s economy.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.23%, 2,900.45    
Nasdaq, +0.34%, 7,680.72    
Nikkei Futures, +0.24%, 22,273.0          

The S&P 500 declined 0.23% on Wednesday in a mixed trading session. Pronounced weakness in the S&P 500 health care sector (-2.9%) counteracted positive economic data and earnings reports, thwarting an early attempt from the benchmark index to re-test its all-time high.

Stocks began the day modestly higher following better-than-expected GDP data out of China and earnings beats from many widely-held companies. The overall response, however, was muted likely due to the sense that much of the good news had already been priced in. An afternoon report from the Wall Street Journal indicating that the U.S. and China plan to continue another round of trade talks at the end of the month also produced little reaction.

United Continental (UAL 89.24, +4.07, +4.8%), CSX Corp. (CSX 78.94, +3.05, +4.0%), and KC Southern (KSU 122.81, +4.82, +4.1%) were some of the transport companies that released solid earnings results. PepsiCo (PEP 127.01, +4.60, +3.8%), Netflix (NFLX 354.74, -4.72, -1.3%), and Morgan Stanley (MS 48.26, +1.24, +2.6%) also beat earnings estimates, but Netflix also guided Q2 EPS below consensus. Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM 79.08, +8.63, +12.3%) received follow-through buying interest after the company settled a licensing dispute with Apple (AAPL 203.13, +3.88, +2.0%) yesterday. Intel (INTC 58.56, +1.85, +3.3%) followed up with an announcement that it will drop out of the 5G smartphone modem business.

2 Min Market Summary: 17 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed, Apr 17th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.14%, $97.07
USDJPY, -0.03%, $112.00
EURUSD, -0.21%, $1.1286
GBPUSD, -0.42%, $1.3044
USDCAD, -0.05%, $1.3357
AUDUSD, -0.13%, $0.7164
NZDUSD, -0.81%, $0.6708 

U.S. Treasuries finished on a lower note, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 2.41%, and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 2.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.14% to 97.07. WTI crude rose 0.9% to $64.04/bbl.

In RBA Minutes, the central bank said that if inflation did not move higher and unemployment rose, a cut in interest rates would “likely be appropriate”. RBA cited, “Nevertheless, a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and by reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure.” 

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 
 

S&P500, +0.05%, 2,907.06
Nasdaq, +0.34%, 7,654.73
Nikkei Futures, +0.35%, 22,257.5   

S&P 500 increased 0.05% on Tuesday, as strong performances from the financial and semiconductor stocks offset pronounced weakness in the healthcare and real estate spaces. The benchmark index traded with modest gains throughout the day and briefly dipped into negative territory with 30 minutes left of trading where it found buying interest at the 2900 level.

The S&P 500 financial sector (+1.4%) was the day’s outright leader following earnings beats from Bank of America (BAC 29.88, +0.04, +0.1%), BlackRock (BLK 466.54, +14.68, +3.3%), and Progressive (PGR 77.26, +5.00, +6.9%). BAC had declined as much as 2.8% intraday after the company missed revenue estimates and warned of a slowdown in net interest income in FY19. The turnaround in shares helped strengthen the sector’s performance.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+3.2%) was another area of strength during the day, and many of its components helped lift the S&P 500 information technology sector (+0.5%). The group received a late-session boost following news that Apple (AAPL 199.25, +0.02, unch) and Qualcomm (QCOM 70.45, +13.27, +23.2%) settled their royalty dispute for a currently undisclosed amount. Prior to the news, shares of Qualcomm were little changed and finished 23.2% higher after the news.

2 Min Market Summary: 16 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue, Apr 16th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.01%, $96.93            
USDJPY, -0.08%, $111.94      
EURUSD, +0.04%, $1.1307
GBPUSD, +0.13%, $1.3101
USDCAD, +0.23%, $1.3370
AUDUSD, +0.02%, $0.7172    

NZDUSD, -0.01%, $0.6766

It was a quiet start to the week of Good Friday and Easter.

U.S. Treasuries traded in a tight range on Monday. The 2-yr yield finished flat at 2.39%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 2.55%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 96.93. WTI crude lost 0.7% to $63.45/bbl after Russia floated the possibility that it might boost production with OPEC to increase their market share. 

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.06%, 2,905.58
Nasdaq, +0.01%, 7,629.12
Nikkei Futures, +0.20%, 22,138.0            

S&P 500 declined 0.06% on Monday, as shares of financial stocks pulled back following another round of bank earnings. Despite the modest decline, the S&P 500 managed to close above the 2900 level in front of several key earnings reports later today. The market’s overall decline was kept in check following a turnaround in shares of widely-held stocks within the communication services (+0.2%) and consumer discretionary (+0.2%) sectors. Relative strength from the consumer staples (+0.7%) and health care (+0.4%) sectors was an added measure of support for the broader market.

Goldman Sachs (GS 199.91, -7.93, -3.8%) and Citigroup (C 67.38, -0.04, -0.1%) beat earnings expectations, but first quarter revenue for both companies declined on a year-over-year basis. Goldman’s revenue also came in slightly below expectations, and the quality of its EPS beat was questioned due to lower tax and compensation rates. The S&P 500 financial sector lost 0.6%.

Trade Opportunity: The stock jumped 4.2%, the biggest one day move since Nov 2016

JPMorgan (JPM) weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart  – LONG

JPMorgan (JPM) reported record earnings last week with strength across all major lines of businesses amid a “more constructive environment”. The stock jumped 4.2%, the biggest one day move since Nov 2016. With a close above the weekly Ichimoku cloud within reach, all signs point to an impending melt-up in stocks.

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

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2 Min Market Summary: 15 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 
 

As of Sat, Apr 13, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index -0.22%, $96.97
USDJPY, +0.32%, $112.03
EURUSD, +0.44%, $1.1302
GBPUSD, +0.21%, $1.3083
USDCAD, -0.48%, $1.3322
AUDUSD, +0.69%, $0.7173
NZDUSD, +0.51%, $0.6762

U.S. Treasuries were under selling pressure, which drove yields noticeably higher. The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 2.39%, and the 10-yr yield increased six basis points to 2.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.22% to 96.97. WTI crude increased 0.4% to $63.91/bbl.

There’s been talk about recessions, trade tensions between the EU and US are escalating and still no final resolution to US-China trade talks or Brexit. Yet investors retain a healthy risk appetite because bank earnings are strong and that policy accommodation abroad will help mitigate a deep slowdown in global growth.

In Brexit on Friday, the United Kingdom missed its second Brexit deadline. By accepting the European Union’s offer to remain until October 31, Theresa May all but guaranteed that the UK, which voted to leave the EU nearly three years ago, will participate in the European parliamentary elections next month.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 
 

S&P500, +0.66%, 2,907.41
Nasdaq, +0.44%, 7,628.15
Nikkei Futures, +0.88%, 21,860.0

S&P 500 gained 0.66% on Friday, as a strong earnings report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 111.21, +4.98, +4.7%) and a buoyant response to Walt Disney’s (DIS 130.06, +13.46, +11.5%) upcoming streaming service helped offset losses from the health care stocks. DIS was resumed with an Overweight rating at JP Morgan with a price target of $137. The announcement and the overwhelmingly positive response contributed to a 4.5% decline in Netflix (NFLX 351.14, -16.51). Friday’s advance also helped the benchmark index close above the 2900 level for the first time since early October.

JPMorgan kicked off the first quarter earnings-reporting season with record revenue and net income, fueling broad-based gains in the S&P 500 financial sector (+1.9%). Wells Fargo (WFC 46.49, -1.25, -2.6%) and PNC Financial Services (PNC 132.70, +3.98, +3.1%) also provided better-than-expected results, but Wells Fargo lowering its outlook for FY19 net interest income sent shares lower.

2 Min Market Summary: 12 April 2019

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 
 

As of Fri, Apr 12, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index +0.20%, $97.15
USDJPY, +0.56%, $111.64
EURUSD, -0.12%, $1.1260
GBPUSD, -0.28%, $1.3055
USDCAD, +0.41%, $1.3376
AUDUSD, -0.71%, $0.7122
NZDUSD, -0.61%, $0.6725

U.S. Treasuries finished on a lower note, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 2.35%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 2.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 97.16. WTI crude fell 1.4% to $63.65/bbl.

U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6% in March (consensus +0.3%), bolstered predominately by a pickup in energy prices. There won’t be any alarming read through at this juncture for market participants who are cognizant that the Consumer Price Index for March showed a moderation in the year-over-year increase for core CPI (2.0% from 2.1% in February. This moderation helped strengthen the Fed’s stance to keep a patient mindset, which further increase the appeal for risk assets).

Central bankers aren’t as optimistic as contradictory views dominate yesterday’s Fed speak. Fed Vice Chair Clarida says the labor market is healthy and the economy is in a good place – a view shared by Fed President Williams. Fed President Bullard on the other hand thinks the March hike marked the end of policy normalization and favors removing the word “patient” from the policy statement because it suggests a tightening bias.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 
 

S&P500, +0.00%, 2,888.32
Nasdaq, -0.22%, 7,594.89
Nikkei Futures, +0.47%, 21,803.0

The stock market finished little changed on Thursday in a tight-ranged trading session. The S&P 500 (unch) finished fractionally higher, as relative strength from financial and industrial stocks helped mitigate losses from shares of healthcare companies in front of earnings season.

There was no specific driver for the noticeable decline in the S&P 500 health care sector (-1.2%). The broad-based selling in the group could have been a move to reduce exposure from the year’s worst-performing sector. Heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH 235.42, -10.61, -4.3%) and many of the components within the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB 111.90, -1.94, -1.7%) led the space lower.
The financial sector (+0.6%), meanwhile, exhibited strength in front of earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 106.23, +0.89, +0.8%) and Wells Fargo (WFC 47.74, -0.05, -0.1%) tomorrow.

In other corporate news, Tesla (TSLA 268.42, -7.64, -2.8%) and Panasonic suspended plans to expand Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada; Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 17.71, -1.70, -8.8%) disappointed investors with its earnings report; and Caesar Entertainment (CZR 9.40, +0.35, +3.9%) is reportedly interested in selling itself.

Who is Your Sherpa?

A LETTER FROM OUR STUDENT

 

I stepped foot into the world of trading just months before the Global Financial Crisis back in 2008. I was fourteen back then and had all the hubris and drive a young teenager would possess, I wanted to be the “best” and was determined to be so.

 

In my quest to be the next trading legend, I attended many courses before the age of 17 and spent a total of approximately $20,000 by then, a hefty sum for a teenager. This does not include the “tuition fees” paid to the market by blowing up accounts at least three times, one of them was even on my mom’s line of credit. In my pursuit, I believe I looked as far, wide and deep as any retail trader possibly could, I read every famous book on technical analysis, fundamental analysis and biographies of trading legends, even down to the esoteric studies like Gann Analysis, Gartley Patterns and Harmonics (these use angles as part of their charting analysis). It was to the extent that I fought for a 9-5 role during my time in the Singapore Armed Forces, just so that I could read and use these 2 years of isolation from society to make a desperate (not last) hurrah, devouring 51 books on trading, risk and philosophies related to strategy within that time. By the age of 21, I knew many things about trading and the markets, but I still could not be consistently profitable and it was getting weary, many internal doubts started surfacing which I did not communicate to anyone, I had gone too far now to give up on this, the aspirations and visions I held so intimately in my mind, I could not let it go. Sure, I was definitely better than when I first started out, in terms of skill and understanding, and had gained some understanding of what I need to acquire to achieve consistent success, but the time spent trying to tinker my way to success was met with the reality of “adulthood” and real world responsibilities, this was the beginning of a much more arduous path, or so I thought, and that was when I met Vee and came to know of TrackRecord Trading Academy.

 

The first time I met Vee, I thought his quirkiness was a breath of fresh air and he was the first professional trader I had come across after 7 years who had actual serious working experience in hedge funds and banks . This was my sanity’s last hope and the rest was history. Under Vee’s watchful guidance, I have learnt the standards risk-management professional traders adhere to in Tier 1 Hedge Funds and Investment Banks, how the best Macro Traders thought about the world and what it means that the goal is not to be “right”, but to be rich. It was there and then during the process that I understood the importance of having a mentor who has played in the Major Leagues before. Unbeknownst to most retail traders who are constantly looking for that one trading strategy, it was not a specific “holy-grail” that Vee imparted which changed the course of my trading destiny. It was his Trading Framework that allowed me to harness the knowledge I have accumulated in the last 7 years and put it to good practical use to overcome the barriers to success, a literal coup de grâce to the fairytale retail traders have in their mind about what it takes to succeed. It was never about finding a specific trade set-up that can be rinsed and repeated to riches.

 

Trading is unlike a jackpot machine, you don’t just stumble upon success after a 2-day course as propagated by many imbeciles, it’s a competitive sport where skills need to be honed over a period of time. A mentorship is the only way to success in trading, precisely because it’s a long enough process to get you the right strokes and fundamentals. A Trading Framework might sound esoteric and unattractive to most retail folks only because it’s not the easy way out, but the easy way out never made anyone truly wealthy, so your success is dependent on what you choose to embrace, the truth about trading or continue chasing butterflies. I will end this with the most cliche of wisdom, and cliches become so because there is much truth to it. “Give a Man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a Man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime”. As a personal testament to the importance of having the right mentor, I’ve managed to open doors I’ve always wanted to since my younger days. In the recent years, I run a Managed Money Macro Portfolio and recently became a founding partner at an Algorithmic Trading Company. Sure this may seem like the final destination and the end of this tale, but in reality this is only the beginning of the aspirations this 14 year old teenager had when he started out back in 2008. There are many more mountains to conquer and trenches to climb out of and you need to have a “Sherpa” if you want to conquer Everest. I’ve found mine in Vee, and I will encourage those of you who are staring up this colossus mountain to take along with you a battle tested veteran, because you’re already on the road less travelled.

 

“Walk with the dreamers, the believers, the courageous, the cheerful, the planners, the doers, the successful people with their heads in the clouds and their feet on the ground. Let their spirit ignite a fire within you to leave this world better than when you found it…”

Wilferd Peterson

 

To Your Success,

Nick.

 

Nick is one of the first to join TrackRecord’s mentoring programmes, and this piece above documents his journey to become a successful trader.