As of Thu, Apr 11, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index -0.11%, $96.90
USDJPY, -0.14%, $110.99
EURUSD, +0.11%, $1.1276
GBPUSD, +0.27%, $1.3097
USDCAD, -0.06%, $1.3321
AUDUSD, +0.61%, $0.7167
NZDUSD, +0.33%, $0.6768

U.S. Treasuries finished the day higher, helped by the notion that the Fed will stay put. The 2-yr yield decreased three basis points to 2.31%, and the 10-yr yield decreased two basis points to 2.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.11% to 96.90. WTI crude rose 0.8% to $64.56/bbl amid reports that OPEC oil production fell to its lowest level in four years.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate decision and the minutes for the FOMC March meeting provided no surprises for the market. In short, both acknowledged risks to the economic outlook, the ECB said it will keep interest rates unchanged (0.00%) through at least the end of 2019 and the bank stands ready to adjust all instruments as necessary, while the Fed remains content to operate in a wait-and-see mode. U.S. Consumer Price Index for March (0.4% m/m vs expected 0.3% m/m), showed the core rate of inflation moderate on a year-over-year basis to 2.0% from 2.1% in February. This moderation helped strengthen the Fed’s stance to keep a patient mindset, which further increase the appeal for risk assets.

In Brexit, EU sources have confirmed that there will be an article 50 extension to 31 October with a review of British cooperation to determine whether there should be an earlier exit on 30 June – the date Theresa May originally asked for. The June “break clause” has been put in to appease France, as President Emmanuel Macron wanted assurances that the UK would conduct European elections properly.

S&P500, +0.35%, 2,888.21
Nasdaq, +0.57%, 7,611.49
Nikkei Futures, -0.42%, 21,648.0

S&P 500 gained 0.35% on Wednesday, as moderating inflation and assurance from central banks to keep rates on hold provided the broader market some support. Stocks drifted with modest gains throughout the day as the market digested the news. A turnaround from the S&P 500 financial sector (+0.3%) and an announcement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that the U.S. and China have “pretty much” agreed to an enforcement mechanism helped solidify the positive bias.

Leadership from heavily-weighted information technology sector (+0.7%) was a major contributor to the day’s advance. On a related note, Apple (AAPL 200.62, +1.12, +0.6%) was downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC, but the stock was able to brush off early weakness to finish higher.

In other corporate news, Delta Air Lines (DAL 57.86, +0.91, +1.6%) beat earnings estimates and increased its full-year revenue growth outlook. Shares of Lyft (LYFT 60.12, -7.32) dropped 10.9% amid news that Uber (UBER) is expected to disclose its IPO prospectus (S-1 filing) on Thursday.

As of Wed, Apr 10, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index -0.05%, $97.00
USDJPY, -0.35%, $111.08
EURUSD, +0.04%, $1.1265
GBPUSD, -0.07%, $1.3054
USDCAD, +0.11%, $1.3329
AUDUSD, +0.02%, $0.7128
NZDUSD, +0.16%, $0.6751

U.S. Treasuries saw increased buying interest following the IMF growth cut for 2019. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield decreased two basis points each to 2.34% and 2.50%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.00. WTI crude lost 0.5% to $64.06/bbl.

The market received some dampening news pertaining to trade and growth: (1) The White House proposed tariffs on $11 billion of EU products in response to the subsidies the EU provides Airbus and (2) the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its world growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from the 3.5% growth it forecast in January..

In Brexit, MPs backed Theresa May’s plan to ask for a Brexit extension until 30 June 2019. May was forced to bring her proposal to the Commons for a vote by the passage of legislation put forward by Labour’s Yvette Cooper and others. The Commons backed the prime minister by a majority of 310. But the president of the EU Council, Donald Tusk, urged EU leaders to offer a much longer extension. Tusk said the UK should be given up to a year to get Brexit sorted, claiming there was little chance of arrangements being made by 30 June. A draft EU Council document suggested such proposals were being drawn up. Labour has said it will back any “reasonable” delay beyond 30 June.

S&P500, -0.61%, 2,878.20
Nasdaq, -0.41%, 7,568.49
Nikkei Futures, -0.14%, 21,740.0

The S&P 500 lost 0.61% on Tuesday, as negative macroeconomic headlines and a bit of corporate news fostered some broad-based profit taking. Tuesday’s decline snapped an eight-session winning streak for the benchmark index.

Bank stocks were particularly weak after Bank of America (BAC 28.89, -0.28, -1.0%) announced it will increase its minimum wage to $17 per hour on May 1, followed by incremental increases to $20 per hour by 2021. The wage increase raised some concerns about other banks feeling pressured to do the same and its subsequent impact on their profit-margins. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 43.13, -0.75) lost 1.7%. American Airlines (AAL 33.31, -0.57, -1.7%) and Pentair (PNR 39.13, -6.13, -13.5%), meanwhile, both lowered their first quarter expectations with Pentair also slashing its fiscal 2019 outlook. AAL finished well off its session low (-3.8%), though, as the company only reduced the top end of its unit revenue growth forecast to 1.0% from 2.0%.

As of Tue, Apr 9, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index -0.32%, $97.06
USDJPY, -0.21%, $111.46
EURUSD, +0.33%, $1.1257
GBPUSD, +0.17%, $1.3060
USDCAD, -0.44%, $1.3314
AUDUSD, +0.31%, $0.7122
NZDUSD, +0.13%, $0.6740

U.S. Treasuries finished slightly lower to begin the week, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points each to 2.36% and 2.52%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.32% to 97.04.

Oil prices ($64.39/bbl, +1.29, +2.0%) were also in focus after breaking out to fresh five-month highs on Monday. The move higher was supported by ongoing concerns stemming from the military conflict in OPEC producer Libya.

In Brexit, MPs voted in favour of the Cooper-Letwin bill, which requires the prime minister to seek an extension to article 50, thus staving off the prospect of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal by accident. They voted to accept the final Lords amendment by 390 votes to 81.

S&P500, +0.10%, 2,895.77
Nasdaq, +0.28%, 7,599.74
Nikkei Futures, -0.59%, 21,773.0

S&P 500 declined as much as 0.4% in the opening minutes of trading on Monday, weighed down by shares of widely-held stocks like Boeing (BA 374.52, -17.41, -4.4%) and General Electric (GE 9.49, -0.52, -5.2%). The benchmark index, however, staged a steady rebound throughout the day to extend its winning streak to eight straight sessions. The S&P 500 finished higher by 0.1%.

A turnaround from many stocks within the S&P 500 information technology (+0.4%), consumer staples (+0.4%), and consumer discretionary (+0.4%) sectors helped the market overcome early weakness that was centered on a slew of downgrades for widely-held stocks. Apple (AAPL 200.10, +3.10, +1.6%), Amazon (AMZN 1849.86, +12.58, +0.7%), and Procter & Gamble (PG 104.97, +1.32, +1.3%) provided strong support for these sectors. PG benefited from Wells Fargo upgrading the stock to Outperform from Market Perform.

Boeing’s problems with the grounding of its 737 Max underpinned key downgrades for Boeing (BA) and Southwest Air (LUV), which is a major U.S. operator of the 737. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded BA to Neutral from Buy and lowered its price target to $420 from $480. Raymond James downgraded LUV to Market Perform from Outperform.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

As of Sat, Mar 6, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.08%, $97.39
USDJPY, +0.05%, $111.73
EURUSD, -0.04%, $1.1216
GBPUSD, -0.31%, $1.3037
USDCAD, +0.18%, $1.3384
AUDUSD, -0.08%, $0.7106
NZDUSD, -0.30%, $0.6733

U.S. Treasuries finished little changed, although they did see an uptick from early lows after the jobs report. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 2.34%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 2.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.08% to 97.39.

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 196,000 in March (consensus 172,000) while nonfarm private sector payrolls increased by 182,000 (consensus 160,000).  Avg. hourly earnings rose just 0.1% (consensus +0.3%). The March Employment Situation Report is that it had that Goldilocks hue again of solid job growth and no inflation worries. In brief, this report accomplished three important things: (1) the yr/yr moderation in wage growth will keep the Fed sidelined (2) it exposed February’s weak payrolls data to be an aberration and (3) it helped quiet recession concerns.

As for trade, nothing concrete came out of last week’s high-level talks in Washington, although the tone remained constructive and hopeful about getting an agreement finalized. Trump said it will be known probably in the next four weeks or so if a deal gets done.

This week, May has until April 10, when EU leaders will gather for an emergency summit, to reach some sort of an agreement on a revised Brexit deal with Corbyn. If May accepts Labour demands for a customs union and a deal is passed, the UK would be in a position to leave on May 22 – a day before EU member states elect new members of the European Parliament. But if the two leaders are unable to come to any agreement, a longer extension that could involve the UK taking part in the upcoming election would become likely. However, another extension is not guaranteed as the EU may decide it’s had enough of British lawmakers’ indecisiveness and accept that a crash UK exit may be the only way out from the crisis. Hence, a disorderly Brexit cannot be completely ruled out even after UK MPs moved swiftly this week to pass a legislation that blocks the government from leaving without a deal and requires it to seek further extensions to Article 50 if there is no consensus on the Withdrawal Agreement.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.46%, 2,892.74
Nasdaq, +0.51%, 7,578.84
Nikkei Futures, +0.41%, 21,790.0  

The S&P 500 gained 0.46% Friday in a broad-based advance that was supported by a Goldilocks Employment Situation Report for March. The benchmark index advanced for the seventh straight session, increased its weekly gain to 2.1%, and closed within ten points of the 2900 level. The S&P 500 energy sector (+1.7%) led the advance as oil prices ($63.10/bbl, +0.86, +1.4%) rose on labor market strength in the U.S. and heightened geopolitical risk in Venezuela and Libya. Conversely, the materials sector (-0.1%) was the lone group that finished lower.

Corporate news was light, although there were some notable analyst recommendations. Dow Inc (DOW 57.24, -2.47) lost 4.1% after JP Morgan initiated the stock with an Underweight rating; Boston Beer (SAM 268.33, -15.67) lost 5.5% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral, citing expectations for slowing sales growth; and Intel (INTC 55.60, -0.32) dipped 0.6% after Wells Fargo cut its rating to Market Perform from Outperform.

As of Fri, Apr 5, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index +0.22%, $97.30
USDJPY, +0.16%, $111.66
EURUSD, -0.08%, $1.1226
GBPUSD, -0.66%, $1.3074
USDCAD, +0.13%, $1.3363
AUDUSD, -0.06%, $0.7109
NZDUSD, -0.32%, $0.6756

U.S. Treasuries finished mixed ahead of Friday’s release of the Employment Situation report for March. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 2.33%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 2.51%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.22% to 97.26. WTI crude lost 0.3% to $62.24/bbl.

In trade, Trump said any trade deal with China is probably still weeks away though both sides are making progress on an accord that could be “very monumental.” There was also some speculation that Trump could soon announce a summit with President Xi, as negotiations have entered the late stages. “We have a ways to go,” Trump told reporters at a meeting Thursday with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House. “We are rounding the turn.”

In Brexit, Angela Merkel and Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, have both stressed that Theresa May will need to be able to explain to EU leaders next week why they should agree to extend article 50 again. Merkel cited, “We do hope that the intensive discussions that are ongoing in London will lead to a situation by next Wednesday, when we have a special council meeting, where Prime Minister Theresa May will have something to table to us on the basis of which we can continue to talk.”

They spoke after talks in London between Labour and the government on a possible Brexit compromise broke up, with both sides being relatively non-committal about progress.

S&P500, +0.21%, 2,879.39
Nasdaq, -0.06%, 7,540.57
Nikkei Futures, +0.09%, 21,740.0

The S&P 500 increased 0.21% on Thursday, wavering between small gains and losses as high-level trade talks continued in Washington. The benchmark index advanced for the sixth straight session, eking out a new closing high for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, boosted by shares of Boeing (BA 395.86, +11.12, +2.9%) on reports of a successful test of the software fix for the 737 MAX plane, which could be implemented in the coming weeks.

The S&P 500 materials (+1.0%), energy (+0.9%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) sectors led the broader market higher. Conversely, the information technology (-0.4%), utilities (-0.4%), and real estate (-0.3%) sectors underperformed.

Tesla (TSLA 267.78, -24.03, -8.2%), meanwhile, disappointed investors after it reported a 31% decline in Q1 deliveries and said the results will negatively affect the company’s Q1 net income. On a related note, a U.S. judge ordered the SEC and CEO Elon Musk to meet and settle their dispute over the next two weeks. The SEC had sought to hold Musk in contempt regarding an unchecked tweet pertaining to Tesla’s operations.

In other corporate news, Facebook (FB 176.02, +2.48, +1.4%) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim with a price target of $200; Micron (MU 42.89, -1.01, -2.3%) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $32.

As of Thu, Apr 4, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index -0.33%, $97.04
USDJPY, +0.06%, $111.39
EURUSD, +0.36%, $1.1244
GBPUSD, +0.37%, $1.3176
USDCAD, +0.07%, $1.3347
AUDUSD, +0.62%, $0.7117
NZDUSD, +0.47%, $0.6789

U.S. Treasuries closed on a lower note, pushing yields higher in a curve-steepening trade. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 2.32%, and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 2.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.33% to 97.11. WTI crude lost 0.3% to $62.42/bbl.

The Caixin China services purchasing managers index (private indicator of China’s service sector rose to a 14-month high in March) rose to 54.4 last month from February’s 51.1, which was a four-month low, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said in a release on Wednesday.

In Brexit, Parliament has approved a bill that effectively rules out a no-deal Brexit by forcing the government to seek an extension from the EU if it cannot pass a divorce plan by April 12. The passage of the bill will enrage hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative Party, and sets Britain on course for a long Brexit extension if May cannot salvage her Withdrawal Agreement in the coming days. By a single vote (313 vs 312), Parliament approved the bill.

S&P500, +0.21%, 2,873.40
Nasdaq, +0.60%, 7,544.97
Nikkei Futures, +1.13%, 21,713.0

The S&P 500 advanced as much as 0.6% on Wednesday amid optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal. Market participants responded favorably to a Financial Times report indicating the U.S. and China were nearing a final trade deal, although issues pertaining to enforcement mechanisms and forced technology transfers still need to be ironed out. Trade talks between high-ranking U.S. and Chinese officials resumed in Washington yesterday.

The benchmark index fell into negative territory in afternoon action, however, succumbing to some selling interest after coming within 50 points of its all-time high. The S&P 500 managed to finish higher by 0.21%.

The S&P 500 materials (+1.3%), information technology (+0.8%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) sectors outperformed the broader market. Conversely, the energy (-1.0%), consumer staples (-0.6%), and industrial (-0.3%) sectors underperformed.

Semiconductor stocks were strong all day following a Digitimes report suggesting Taiwan Semi (TSM 41.79, +0.52, +1.3%), which is the largest contract semiconductor foundry, is seeing a rebound in chip orders. Optimism that better economic activity could be on the horizon, and that a trade deal could be worked out soon, also fueled buying interest in this growth-oriented space that has leading-indicator status. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 29.02, +2.27, +8.5%) and Intel (INTC 55.48, +1.12, +2.1%) provided the group with some influential support after both were initiated with a Buy rating at Nomura/Instinet. AMD also benefited from Digitimes suggesting it will see a significant increase in sales in the second half of the year while Intel got an added boost from the news that it named a new CFO.

Shares of Facebook (FB 173.54, -0.66), on the other hand, came under pressure following a Bloomberg report regarding a privacy slip-up. The report indicated a cyber security firm discovered Facebook user information was “inadvertently posted publicly on Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud computing servers” in plain sight. FB shares lost 0.4% after being up as much as 2.2% prior to the report.

As of Wed, Apr 3, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index +0.08%, $97.31
USDJPY, -0.05%, $111.31
EURUSD, -0.08%, $1.1204
GBPUSD, +0.20%, $1.3127
USDCAD, +0.27%, $1.3343
AUDUSD, -0.77%, $0.7057
NZDUSD, -0.81%, $0.6751

U.S. Treasuries closed on a higher note, pushing yields slightly lower. The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 2.31%, and the 10-yr yield decreased two basis points to 2.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.08% to 97.31. WTI crude rose 1.6% to $62.58/bbl, hitting a new five-month high.

Aussie was offered as the RBA (Cash Rate remained at 1.50% as expected) altered its statement just a bit to alert the market that it is moving to a more dovish posture. Lowe said the central bank board would “continue to monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth.”

In Brexit, May announced Tuesday she would seek a longer extension from the European Union to avert a no-deal Brexit on April 12. She also said she would meet with opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to try to come up with a compromise Brexit plan.

“Today, I am taking action to break the logjam,” May said in a speech Tuesday. “I am offering to sit down with the leader of the opposition and to try to agree a plan  that we would both stick to, to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal.” May added that she would ask the EU to postpone the Brexit deadline until May 22.That would allow the UK to avoid taking part in the European parliamentary elections starting May 23, while still giving her time to forge a compromise deal and win approval for it from the UK Parliament.

S&P500, +0.01%, 2,867.24
Nasdaq, +0.28%, 7,499.64
Nikkei Futures, +0.48%, 21,553.0 

The S&P 500 finished flat on Tuesday in a lacklustre trading session. Price action was relatively muted for most of the day. The S&P 500 consumer staples (-0.8%) and energy (-0.7%) sectors were Tuesday’s outright laggards. Conversely, the real estate (+0.9%), communication services (+0.4%), and materials (+0.4%) sectors outperformed.

Walgreens said it expects FY19 adjusted EPS growth to be flat, versus prior guidance of 7-12% growth, citing several industry challenges. Its negative outlook undercut the consumer staples sector and many health care stocks. The S&P 500 health care sector decreased 0.2%.

Delta Air Lines (DAL 55.33, +3.15, +6.0%) for its part reported total first quarter unit revenue growth at 2%, the top end of prior guidance, and increased its first quarter EPS guidance. Its upbeat outlook fostered buying interest in other airline stocks, which provided offsetting support for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-0.2%).

As of Tue, Apr 2, Singapore Time zone UTC +8

Dollar Index +0.10%, $97.34
USDJPY, +0.54%, $111.46
EURUSD, -0.16%, $1.1206
GBPUSD, +0.26%, $1.3067
USDCAD, -0.24%, $1.3314
AUDUSD, +0.18%, $0.7110
NZDUSD, +0.04%, $0.6807

A trifecta of better data out of Asia helped fuel a risk on rally in FX at the start of the week with high beta currencies gapping higher on the open and USDJPY pushing through the 111.00 figure.

In China, the PMI Manufacturing report rose back above the 50 boom/bust level its best one month rise since 2012 (actual 50.8; expected 50.1; prior 49.9). In Korea and Japan, the PMI readings also rose from the month prior although those indices remained in contractionary territory. Japan’s Nikkei and IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for March rose to 49.2 from 48.9 in February, helped by a lift in new orders. South Korea’s PMI rose to 48.8 from 47.2 in the previous month.

In Brexit, members of Parliament had another chance to break the political stalemate. But they rejected all four Brexit options, including a second referendum and a customs union. On Monday, just four options were on the ballot, most of them the finalists from the first round, with some tweaks. The hope was that now, with fewer choices and time running out ahead of the April 12 Brexit deadline, MPs would rally behind a particular plan and offer up a Brexit compromise that could end the political stalemate and uncertainty.

Parliament punted on its chance to direct the Brexit process. Now, the UK has to decide whether it will leave the European Union on April 12 without any deal in place, or seek a much longer extension. May is expected to hold a marathon Cabinet meeting later today, where her government will likely lay out next steps. 

S&P500, +1.16%, 2,867.19
Nasdaq, +1.35%, 7,478.42
Nikkei Futures, +0.86%, 21,733.0

The stock market followed Friday’s strong close to the first quarter with an even stronger start to the second quarter. The S&P 500 climbed 1.16% to a fresh high for the year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.35%) outperformed. Equity futures jumped out of the gate after better than expected China’s Manufacturing PMI reinforced the idea that global economic activity is rebounding.

The broader industrials sector gained 2.1%, but finished behind financials (+2.4%). The economically-sensitive group benefited from weakness in Treasuries, which sent the 10-yr yield higher by eight basis points to 2.50%. This helped expand the spread between the 3-month bill yield and the 10-yr note yield to 11 basis points from three basis points at the end of Friday’s session.

On the commodity side, crude oil jumped 2.3% to a fresh 2019 high at $61.59/bbl with the 200-day moving average (61.66) looming just above.

News of impending price cuts at Amazon-owned (AMZN 1814.19, +33.44, +1.9%) Whole Foods weighed on Kroger (KR 24.48, -0.12, -0.5%) in afternoon trade.