The Week Ahead, Trade Opportunities

Trade Opportunity: USD/KRW breaking 2yr highs strongly may be the starts of a major USD move

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

USD/KRW (Korean Won) Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart – LONG

USD/KRW breaking 2yr highs strongly may be the start of a major USD move. From the chart, 1210 is the next target.

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 6 May 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

As of Sat, May 4, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, -0.36%, $97.48    
USDJPY, -0.37%, $111.11      
EURUSD, +0.21%, $1.1202   
GBPUSD, +1.07%, $1.3174   
USDCAD, -0.41%, $1.3420  
AUDUSD, +0.34%, $0.7024 
NZDUSD, +0.42%, $0.6646

U.S. Employment Situation report pointed to strong headline growth and subdued inflationary pressure stemming from rising wages. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 (consensus 181,000) while average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% m/m (consensus 0.3%), leaving them up 3.2% y/y (consensus 3.3%), unchanged from what was seen in the March report. The April report should support the Fed’s case for staying on its current policy path. 

U.S. Treasuries ended the week on a higher note, pushing yields slightly lower. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points each to 2.32% and 2.53%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.36% to 97.48.

Over the weekend on trade, Trump tweeted that 10% tariffs paid by China on $200 billion in goods will rise to 25% on Friday, and that – contrary to what he himself and his chief economist, Larry Kudlow has said for months, talks on a trade deal have been going too slowly. And, just to underscore his point, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly.” Trump’s renewed tariff threat alarmed investors Sunday, sending stock futures down. The Dow was down more than 400 points Sunday evening, while the Nasdaq was down more than 100 points.

As of Friday, the Chinese embassy was arranging for the visit of Vice Premier Liu He, who has led the negotiations for the Chinese side, and a delegation of dozens of senior Chinese officials, a person familiar with their plans said. The White House has said top officials from both sides plan to meet on May 8.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.96%, 2,945.64
Nasdaq, +1.58%, 7,845.73
Nikkei Futures, +0.90%, 22,482.5  

S&P 500 advanced 0.96% on Friday, as a strong employment report underpinned a move back to near all-time highs. Friday’s gains helped the benchmark index finish the week higher by 0.2%. All 11 of the S&P 500 sectors finished higher with gains ranging from 0.7% (utilities) to 1.4% (consumer discretionary). The S&P 500 energy sector (+0.8%) was a strong performer for most of the session as oil prices ($61.93/bbl, +$0.16, +0.3%) stabilized, but the group succumbed to selling interest into close. The energy space had fallen in tandem with oil this week, finishing the week with a loss of 3.3%.

Amazon (AMZN 1962.46, +61.64) rose 3.2% after Warren Buffet said Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 218.60, +2.67, +1.2%) has been buying shares of the company. Its outperformance contributed to the leadership of the consumer discretionary sector.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 3 May 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri, May 3, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.20%, $97.83                
USDJPY, +0.09%, $111.50         
EURUSD, -0.19%, $1.1174
GBPUSD, -0.17%, $1.3032
USDCAD, +0.20%, $1.3470        
AUDUSD, -0.33%, $0.6992
NZDUSD, -0.14%, $0.6614

U.S. Initial claims for the week ending April 27 were unchanged from the prior week at 230,000 (consensus 220,000). Continuing claims for the week ending April 20 increased by 17,000 to 1.671 million. Initial claims might have been higher than expected, yet remains relatively low, evidenced by a four-week moving average of 212,500 that isn’t far off a 50-year low. Factory orders increased 1.9% in March (consensus +1.0%). Business investment picked up in March, evidenced by the 1.4% increase in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are a proxy for business spending.

U.S. Treasuries continued their post-FOMC retreat, sending yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points each to 2.34% and 2.55%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.15% to 97.83.

The BoE voted unanimously to keep interest rates steady at 0.75 percent but stuck to their view tighter policy would be needed in future. The central bank now sees inflation ending the year at 1.6%, well below their 2% target. They also lowered their inflation forecasts for 2020. While they upgraded their GDP forecasts (to 1.5% from 1.2%) and expressed confidence that inflation and demand will rise strongly in 2 or 3 years time, the lack of price pressures now will keep the BoE on hold for the foreseeable future.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.21%, 2,917.52
Nasdaq, -0.36%, 7,724.06
Nikkei Futures, +0.42%, 22,283.0        

S&P 500 declined 0.21% on Thursday, although it had been down as much as 0.8% in the session. Energy stocks weighed on the broader market for the second straight day, as oil prices ($61.77/bbl, -$1.82, -2.9%) fell to a one-month low. The S&P 500 energy sector (-1.7%) was the day’s worst-performing group amid a drop in the price of oil. Prices were pressured by rising U.S. inventory and by reports that Asian refiners asked Saudi Arabia for additional supply amid global disruptions.

Conversely, the broader market found support from the S&P 500 health care (+0.5%), financials (+0.2%), and real estate (+0.2%) sectors. Many stocks within the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.2%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+1.1%) provided additional support.

In corporate news, Dow Inc (DOW 72.50, -3.43, -6.1%), Square (SQ 67.74, -5.88, -8.0%), Kellogg (K 57.38, -2.01, -3.4%), and Cigna (CI 158.22, -3.78, -2.3%) were some of the more notable companies that fell after disappointing investors with their earnings results/guidance. Tesla (TSLA 244.10, +10.09) rose 4.3% after the company announced plans to raise $2.0 billion through new equity and convertible notes.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 2 May 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu, May 2, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.15%, $97.63
USDJPY, +0.03%, $111.45     
EURUSD, -0.13%, $1.1202  
GBPUSD, +0.15%, $1.3054
USDCAD, +0.37%, $1.3438  
AUDUSD, -0.50%, $0.7013
NZDUSD, -0.73%, $0.6626 

In FOMC, the fed funds rate was left unchanged at 2.25-2.50%, as expected. The committee also acknowledged that overall inflation and core inflation have declined and remained below its 2 percent target. Some market participants believed the Fed was setting the precedent for a rate cut should inflation continue to remain persistently below the Fed’s target. Powell, however, downplayed the need to address the muted inflation pressure with a change in policy, including a rate cut,  he thinks the recent deceleration in inflation is being caused by transitory factors. 

He also said consumer spending and business investment will most likely pick up and noted that some of the risks that they were worried about in March (such as Brexit, Europe and China) have “moderated.” These upbeat comments kicked off a Dollar rally, driving Euro below 1.12 (from 1.1265) and Aussie (from 0.7062) within a few pips of 70 cents. USD/JPY, which had fallen to a low of 111.05 after the subdued FOMC statement, hit a high of 111.60 during Powell’s press conference.

The Treasury market reacted visibly to Powell’s message that a rate cut should not be expected. The 2-yr yield, which fell to 2.22% before the conference, finished higher by three basis points to 2.30%. The 10-yr yield, which fell to 2.46% before the conference, returned to its unchanged mark at 2.51%.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.75%, 2,923.73
Nasdaq, -0.38%, 7,751.85
Nikkei Futures, -0.97%, 22,190.0

S&P 500 lost 0.75% on Wednesday, pulling back from all-time highs, after Powell dismissed the idea of a rate-cut to address low inflation. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by energy (-2.2%), materials (-1.8%), and consumer staples (-1.2%). The weakness in the energy space was also driven by lower oil prices ($63.59/bbl, -$0.21, -0.3%) following bearish inventory data out of the Energy Information Administration.

Apple (AAPL 210.52, +9.85, +4.9%) provided some support on Wed after it beat top and bottom-line estimates and issued upbeat guidance for its fiscal third quarter. EPS: $2.46 vs. $2.36 forecast. Revenue: $58.02 billion vs. $57.37 billion forecast. Q2 iPhone revenue: $31.05 billion vs. $31.10 billion expected. Q2 services revenue: $11.45 billion vs. $11.37 billion forecast. Apple also said that it would spend $75 billion on share repurchases and it also approved a 77 cent dividend per share, a 5% increase. Apple has been signaling to investors that iPhone sales aren’t the critical number to watch. Apple instead is highlighting its services revenue, which includes products like iCloud, Apple Music, AppleCare warranties and others. Apple reported $11.45 billion in services revenue, which is up 16% from the same time last year.

The Week Ahead, Trade Opportunities

Trade Opportunities: Any pullbacks should be taken as opportunities to get involved.

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

Microsoft (MSFT) Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart  – LONG

Microsoft (MSFT) continues to power to all-time highs relentless. Any pullbacks should be taken as opportunities to get involved.

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

Earnings, Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 20 April 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue, Apr 30, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, -0.19%, 97.85     
USDJPY, +0.08%, $111.68
EURUSD, +0.32%, $1.1185
GBPUSD, +0.10%, $1.2931   
USDCAD, -0.06%, $1.3455  
AUDUSD, +0.17%, $0.7055
NZDUSD, +0.06%, $0.6670 

The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points each to 2.30% and 2.54%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.19% to 97.85. WTI crude increased 0.4% to $63.44/bbl.

U.S. Personal spending m/m jumped 0.9% (consensus 0.7%) in March. The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 1.5% yr/yr in March while the core PCE Price Index was up 1.6% yr/yr in March – both below the Fed’s annual inflation target of 2.0%.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.11%, 2,943.03
Nasdaq, +0.16%, 7,839.04
Nikkei Futures, +0.09%, 22,377.5     

The S&P 500 (+0.11%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.16%) both set new closing, and intraday, records on Monday. It was a tight-ranged session, but positive economic data and the outperformance of the financial and communication services stocks helped maintain the market’s bullish bias.

The latest personal income and spending data helped advance the narrative that the U.S. economy seems to be benefiting still from solid consumer spending activity and muted inflation pressures.

Alphabet shares fell about 7% in after market trading, Google’s parent company reported revenue that fell below analyst estimates for its first-quarter 2019. Earnings per share: $11.90 per share, ex-items, vs. $10.61 expected. Revenue: $36.34 billion, vs. $37.33 billion expected.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 29 Apr 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP  

As of Sat, Apr 27, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, -0.19%, $98.01
USDJPY, -0.04%, $111.59
EURUSD, +0.15%, $1.1149
GBPUSD, +0.16%, $1.2919
USDCAD, -0.22%, $1.3455
AUDUSD, +0.36%, $0.7040
NZDUSD, +0.54%, $0.6662    

The 2-yr yield declined four basis points to 2.27%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 2.51%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.19% to 98.01. Signs that the U.S. economy is exhibiting solid growth and muted inflation pressures was another positive consideration for equities and U.S. Treasuries alike. The advance estimate for first quarter GDP increased 3.2% (consensus 2.2%), while the GDP Price Deflator was up just 0.9% (consensus 1.4%) after increasing 1.7% in the fourth quarter. This coming Thursday’s FOMC meeting is one of the most important event risks next week. Everyone is wondering whether the Fed will recognize the improvements in data as a sign that the prior slowdown is temporary or overlooked them in favor of low inflation and sluggish global growth. 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.47%, 2,939.88
Nasdaq, +0.12%, 7,826.68
Nikkei Futures, -0.45%, 22,250.0    

The S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) set new closing highs on Friday, as shares of Amazon (AMZN 1950.63, +48.38, +2.5%) and strong Q1 GDP data helped the market steer past early weakness. The underperformance in the energy and semiconductor stocks, however, put a lid on further gains.

Amazon easily topped earnings expectations and announced that one-day shipping will be the new standard for Amazon Prime members. EPS: $7.09 vs. $4.72 expected. Revenue: $59.7 billion vs. $59.7 billion expected. AWS: $7.7 billion vs. $7.7 billion, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. The results underpinned the stock’s outperformance, while the shipping news undercut shares of Wal-Mart (WMT 101.53, -1.99, -1.9%) and Target (TGT 77.12, -4.62, -5.7%).

Intel (INTC 52.43, -5.18), meanwhile, dropped 9.0% after issuing disappointing guidance. Its lower guidance also contributed to the declines in the S&P 500 information technology sector (-0.4%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-0.8%). The S&P 500 energy sector (-1.2%) underperformed following a decline in oil ($63.23/bbl, -$1.94, -3.0%), which was pressured by Trump telling OPEC to tame fuel costs. Underwhelming earnings reports from Exxon Mobil (XOM 80.49, -1.73, -2.1%) and Chevron (CVX 117.10, -0.80, -0.7%) also weighed on the space.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 26 April 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri, Apr 26, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, -0.03%, $98.14
USDJPY, -0.57%, $111.54
EURUSD, -0.17%, $1.1135
GBPUSD, -0.06%, $1.2895
USDCAD, -0.09%, $1.3479  
AUDUSD, +0.01%, $0.7017
NZDUSD, +0.59%, $0.6632 

U.S. Treasuries finished slightly lower, pushing yields slightly higher. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point each to 2.31% and 2.53%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished unchanged at 98.14. WTI crude lost 1.0% to $65.17/bbl.

In growth, South Korea reported a 0.3% qtr/qtr contraction in first quarter GDP, marking its worst performance since the global financial crisis, as companies slashed investment and exports slumped in response to Sino-U.S. trade tensions and cooling Chinese demand. From a year earlier, the Korean economy grew 1.8% in the January-March quarter, and 3.1% in the final quarter of 2018.

The Bank of Japan signaled rates will be kept at extremely low levels until at least the spring of 2020; and 3M attributed its poor results to slowing conditions in China and other end markets. 
Slowing global growth, though, really hasn’t deterred investors from U.S. stocks this year. The U.S. economy, after all, appears to remain in solid footing. The latest economic data yesterday showed durable goods orders increase 2.7% m/m in March (consensus +0.7%).

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.04%, 2,926.17 
Nasdaq, +0.42%, 7,816.92
Nikkei Futures, -0.05%, 22,160.0     

S&P 500 (-0.04%) finished fractionally lower on Thursday, although strong earnings reports from Facebook (FB 193.26, +10.68, +5.9%) and Microsoft (MSFT 129.15, +4.14, +3.3%) helped the broader market overcome early weakness stemming from 3M (MMM 190.72, -28.36, -13.0%) and other industrial stocks.

The 13% drop in 3M carried the most weight with shares of UPS (UPS 105.13, -9.30, -8.1%), Raytheon (RTN 177.37, -8.08, -4.4%), Rockwell Automation (ROK 176.22, -12.68, -6.7%), and Masco (MAS 37.50, -2.49, -6.2%) following suit. Visa (V 161.02, -0.47, -0.3%), Tesla (TSLA 247.63, -11.03, -4.3%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 678.07, -31.68, -4.5%), and Xilinx (XLNX 115.86, -23.86, -17.1%) also fell following their results.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 25 April 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu, Apr 25, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.42%, $98.05
USDJPY, +0.25%, $112.14
EURUSD, -0.67%, $1.1151
GBPUSD, -0.26%, $1.2904
USDCAD, +0.51%, $1.3493
AUDUSD, -1.24%, $0.7014
NZDUSD, -0.95%, $0.6594 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.42% to 98.05 – its highest level since May 2017. The 2-yr yield declined four basis points to 2.31%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 2.52%. A further decline in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (99.2 vs exp. 99.9) contributed to some cautious trading and weakness in the euro, which fell 0.67% to 1.1151. 

The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate unchanged (1.75%), lowered their economic forecast and dropped their hawkish bias.The BoC slashed its GDP growth forecast to 1.2% y/y in 2019, from 1.7% previous, and projected growth of just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019. The central bank no longer feels that the next move should be higher, according to policy statement that said the “Governing Council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted.” USDCAD spiked to a high of 1.3521 on the back of the news, but quickly recovered.

Aussie and Kiwi were heavily offered. Australian CPI (0.0% q/q vs exp. 0.2% q/q) was significantly weaker than expected in the first quarter. Speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates has increased since February when influential Westpac Banking Corp. Chief Economist Bill Evans made the forecasts for lower interest costs.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.22%, 2,927.25
Nasdaq, -0.34%, 7,784.41
Nikkei Futures, -0.14%, 22,208.0     

S&P 500 declined 0.22% on Wednesday in a tight-ranged session. A mixed set of earnings reports, and some defensive positioning, provided little incentive to move higher after the day before’s record-setting day.

There was some defensive positioning in the market in front of key earnings reports and a policy decision from the Bank of Japan. U.S. Treasuries saw increased buying interest, which drove yields lower across the curve and underpinned the outperformance of the rate-sensitive real estate (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.6%) sectors.

The S&P 500 energy sector (-1.9%) was the day’s outright laggard. Selling was broad-based amid a decline in oil prices ($65.83/bbl, -0.50, -0.8%), which pulled back following some bearish inventory data.
There was also some concern about a potential bidding war following Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY 62.00, -0.36, -0.6%) bid to acquire Anadarko Petroleum (APC 71.40, +7.41, +11.6%) for $76.00 per share in cash and stock. The proposal represents a 20% premium to Chevron’s (CVX 118.28, -3.74, -3.1%) prior offer.

Facebook stock rose as much as 9% in after-hours trading despite the company announcing that it could take a one-time charge of as much $5 billion due to an ongoing Federal Trade Commission inquiry. The company exceeded revenue expectations and matched estimates for its daily active user growth. Earnings: 85 cents per share (can’t be compared to analyst expectations because of a one time charge) Revenue: $15.08 billion, vs. $14.98 billion. Daily active users: 1.56 billion, vs. 1.56 billion forecast by FactSet. Monthly active users: 2.38 billion, vs. 2.37 billion forecast by FactSet.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary: 24 April 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed, Apr 24, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index, +0.31%, $97.59  
USDJPY, -0.05%, $111.89
EURUSD, -0.31%, $1.1223
GBPUSD, -0.37%, $1.2938            
USDCAD, +0.64%, $1.3430   
AUDUSD, -0.52%, $0.7097
NZDUSD, -0.39%, $0.6654   

U.S. Treasury yields remained lower on Tuesday. The 2-yr yield declined four basis points to 2.35%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 2.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.31% to 97.59. Dollar was strongly bid against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen, which was held back by the 112 resistance level. WTI crude rose 1.1% to $66.33/bbl, nearing a six-month high.

U.S. New home sales in March increased 4.5% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 (consensus 646,000), which was the strongest pace since November 2017. Sales were up 3.0% yr/yr. The solid sales activity was helped by a 9.8% decline in the median sales price and lower mortgage rates.

 

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.88%, 2,933.68
Nasdaq, +1.26%, 7,810.71
Nikkei Futures, +0.49%, 22,350.0                    

The S&P 500 (+0.88%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) both set all-time closing highs on Tuesday in a broad-based advance. Investor sentiment was buoyed by a batch of positive earnings reports from widely-held companies and positive economic data.

There were earnings beats from a diverse set of companies that included United Technologies (UTX 140.02, +3.11, +2.3%), Coca-Cola (KO 48.21, +0.81, +1.7%), Verizon (VZ 57.15, -1.22, -2.1%), Procter & Gamble (PG 103.16, -2.85, -2.7%), Lockheed Martin (LMT 331.10, +17.84, +5.7%), Twitter (TWTR 39.77, +5.38, +15.6%), and Hasbro (HAS 100.65, +12.54, +14.2%).

Yesterday’s advance was broad-based, led by the health care (+1.6%), consumer discretionary (+1.2%), and information technology (+1.1%) sectors. The lone exception was the consumer staples sector (-0.1%), which was held back by the underperformance of Procter & Gamble.