NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Fri, Jan 18, 08:00 Singapore Time zone UTC+8

USDJPY, +0.05%, $109.14
EURUSD, -0.07%, $1.1393
GBPUSD, +0.78%, $1.2983
USDCAD, +0.20%, $1.3282
AUDUSD, +0.30%, $0.7189
NZDUSD, -0.19%, $0.6763

S&P500, +0.76%, 2,635.96.
Nasdaq, +0.71%, 7,084.46.
Nikkei Futures, +0.15%, 20,460.0

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

• Initial claims for the week ending January 12 decreased by 3,000 to 213,000 (consensus 219,000) while continuing claims for the week ending January 5 increased by 18,000 to 1.737 million. The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial claims continues to reflect a solid labor market.
• The Philadelphia Fed Index for January jumped to 17.0 (consensus 9.7) from 9.4, paced by an eight-point pop in the new orders index to 21.3 that was the highest reading in six months.
• U.S. Treasuries edged lower, pushing the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield higher by two basis points each to 2.56% and 2.75%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 96.06. WTI crude lost -0.6% to $51.99/bbl.

 STOCK MARKET WRAP 

• The S&P 500 gained 0.76% on Thursday, boosted by a Wall Street Journal report indicating the U.S. is considering lifting some, or all, of the tariffs on Chinese imports while trade negotiations continue. It was a relatively muted session prior to the release of the report, which was published around 2:40 p.m. ET. According to the article, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested lifting tariffs with the aim of advancing talks and winning China’s support for longer-term reforms. The report, however, also mentioned that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had pushed back, arguing that any concession could be seen as a sign of weakness.
• The market retraced a good portion of the knee-jerk gains on a follow-up report that said a Treasury spokesperson informed CNBC by email that no recommendations have been made on the tariffs. Despite the contradictory reports, this was viewed as an interesting development because it gave market participants (and Trump) a quick glimpse at the type of reaction that would presumably ensue on news of an actual trade deal. To that end, the S&P 500 jumped nearly 0.76% in a span of about ten minutes on just a suggestion that a proposal was made to lift tariffs temporarily.
• In earnings news, Morgan Stanley (MS 42.53, -1.96) reported top and bottom line results that were below consensus estimates for the fourth quarter. The stock fell -4.4% on the disappointing results, but it was not enough to bring down the red-hot financial sector (+0.5%), which is now up 7.2% this month. Netflix beats on subscriber growth, but misses slightly on revenue, stock fell after hours (-3.74%). The company is guiding toward lower-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2019. Netflix expects earnings per share of 56 cents on revenue of $4.49 billion, compared with Wall Street consensus estimates of 82 cents and $4.61 billion. Netflix previously warned content costs are more heavily weighted in the second half of the year. Newly appointed Chief Financial Officer Spence Neumann said during the company’s earnings interview that a move towards owned content has “put pressure on the cash flows of the business and the cash needs of the business over the past few years,” but that the company is confident in its investment.

WWF Launches Blockchain Tool to Track Food Along Supply Chain
World Wildlife Fund-Australia (WWF-Australia) has announced the launch of a supply chain tool that uses blockchain to allow businesses and consumers to track food items. The platform, dubbed OpenSC, is the product of a partnership between WWF-Australia and BCG Digital Ventures (BCGDV) — the global corporate venture, investment and incubation arm of United States-based Boston Consulting Group. The system allows both businesses to track products they produce, and consumers to view the origins of said products via a “unique blockchain code at the product’s point of origin.” The platform distributes QR codes to products made by client corporations signing up to the scheme. The codes are then linked to a blockchain platform to allow consumers to check the origin and life cycle of the specific product. The aim is to empower consumers with the knowledge of exactly what they are buying so they can purposely make an ethical choice.

South Africa’s Central Bank Proposes Rules for Crypto Companies
Crypto exchanges and wallet providers would have to register with regulators under rules proposed by South Africa’s central bank. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said that regulatory action on crypto assets needs to be prioritized to protect consumers and investors, stating that consumers “are left vulnerable as sellers of crypto assets are not regulated.” The bank suggests that a “useful starting point” for regulating the space would be the introduction of a registration scheme for crypto asset service providers such as exchanges and wallet providers. It would follow that with a review of existing rules and how they can be applied to crypto assets, with possible amendments or new rules to follow, and finally a review of the regulatory actions implemented at that point. The central bank also recommended that crypto assets should remain without legal tender status and should not be recognized as electronic money in its proposal. A detailed process for registration is expected to be issued and implemented by the first quarter of 2019.

Huobi Resumes Trading in Japan as FSA-Licensed Exchange
Cryptocurrency exchange Huobi — currently the world’s 7th largest by daily traded volume — has relaunched as a fully licensed platform in Japan after merging with BitTrade. Huobi Global’s wholly owned subsidiary, Huobi Japan Holding Ltd, acquired a majority stake in BitTrade last September. Leon Li, Huobi Group Founder and CEO, has said that securing the license represents a significant milestone for Huobi, given the importance of the Japanese market. Huobi Japan supports trading of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), and Monacoin (MONA). While a license has been mandatory for all crypto exchanges operating within Japan since the amendment of the country’s Payment Services Act back in April 2017, the FSA has continued to ratchet up requirements for applicants throughout 2018, in the wake of last January’s industry-record-breaking $532 million theft of NEM tokens from Coincheck. Huobi Group has been headquartered in Singapore since Beijing’s crackdown on domestic crypto-fiat exchanges in September 2017. As part of its ongoing overseas expansion efforts, the platform has recently rebranded its United States-based strategic partner trading platform HBUS to the better known Huobi name.

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Thu, Jan 17, 08:00 Singapore Time zone UTC+8

USDJPY, +0.35%, $109.04
EURUSD, -0.16%, $1.1399
GBPUSD, +0.21%, $1.2887
USDCAD, -0.06%, $1.3257
AUDUSD, -0.42%, $0.7171
NZDUSD, -0.64%, $0.6773

S&P500, +0.22%, 2,616.10.
Nasdaq, +0.15%, 7,034.69.
Nikkei Futures, +0.01%, 20,512.5

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

• Import prices declined 1.0% month-over-month (expected -1.3%) and were down 0.6% year-over-year. Excluding fuel, they were unchanged in December and up just 0.5% year-over-year. Export prices declined 0.6% and were up 1.1% year-over-year. Excluding agricultural products, they were down 1.1% in December and up 1.0% year-over-year. The key takeaway from the report is that it didn’t ring any inflation alarm bells that would compel the Fed to be less patient with its monetary policy approach.
• The Federal Reserve’s January Beige Book noted that eight out of twelve districts reported modest to moderate growth, but contacts had become less optimistic about their expectations due to increased volatility in financial markets, rising short-term rates, falling energy prices, and trade/political uncertainty.
• U.S. Treasuries ended on Wednesday on a lower note, pushing the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield up two basis points each to 2.54% and 2.73%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 96.08. WTI crude reversed course to finish higher by 0.8% at $52.33/bbl.
• Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal suffered a big defeat yesterday in Parliament. She lost by 230 votes, which was her worst case scenario. Instead of falling, Sterling surged on the decision and is trading above 1.28. As BoE Governor Carney pointed out, the rebound in the currency reflects expectations that Article 50 will be extended and the prospect of no deal diminished. No one wants a disorderly no deal Brexit and the next step for May will be to lay out Plan B by January 21st. U.K. CPI y/y  2.1% as expected 2.1%. PPI Input m/m  -1.0% vs expected -1.5%.

 STOCK MARKET WRAP 

• The S&P 500 gained 0.22% on Wednesday, as strong earnings from Bank of America (BAC 28.45, +1.90, +7.2%) and Goldman Sachs (GS 197.08, +17.17, +9.5%) helped keep the rally going. The benchmark index was up as much as 0.6%, but succumbed to selling pressure into the close. The S&P 500 financial sector carried the load on Wednesday with a sizable gain of 2.2%. Conversely, the consumer staples (-0.5%) and communication services (-0.4%) sectors underperformed the broader market. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs climbed 7.2% and 9.5%, respectively, after both exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter. United Continental (UAL 86.36, +5.16, +6.4%) also reported better-than-expected top and bottom lines. Its strong report, and a reassuring outlook, helped lift the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.5%) and airline stocks as a whole. The market has had its fair share of earnings warnings during this rally and Wednesday was no exception. Still, the stock market seemed unaffected by a fourth quarter earnings warning from Ford Motor (F 8.29, -0.55, -6.2%) and retailer Nordstrom (JWN 45.01, -2.25, -4.8%) saying its full-year earnings are expected to be at the low end of its previous outlook due to weaker-than-expected holiday sales. UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote a day after her Brexit plan was soundly defeated. Her ability to survive the no-confidence vote was widely expected and, like Tuesday, the outcome was a non-factor for U.S. markets.

Swiss Crypto Industry Leader Says Next Crypto Wave Will Be Stablecoins, Security Tokens

Bitcoin Association Switzerland board member Luzius Meisser says he believes the next wave of crypto innovation will focus on stablecoins and security tokens. In regard to the medium-term future of crypto, Meisser said he expects the initial coin offering (ICOs) sector to undergo a significant change, noting that until now ICO investors have had negligible rights, as they have essentially been little more than donors. With demands that their protections become more tangible, Meisser predicted that security tokens can be expected to account for the next, much more heavily regulated wave of the ICO market. Meisser’s exception was certain stablecoins, whose decentralized mechanisms ensure they are legally considered to be payment or utility tokens rather than securities. He isolated stablecoins more broadly, whether they are securities or otherwise, as an important future pillar of the blockchain industry. In other remarks, Meisser noted that Swiss banks remain very risk averse and thus try not to touch crypto, and outlined several mechanisms local enterprises and startups can use to circumvent banking difficulties in the country.

BitMEX Research: ICO Tokens Allocated by Teams to Themselves Lost 54% of $24 Bln Value

The value of tokens that over a hundred of initial coin offering (ICO) teams have allocated to themselves has decreased by 54 percent from the initial figure of $24 billion. BitMEX has conducted a research of the ICO market in collaboration with analytics firm TokenAnalyst, looking into treasury balances of more than a hundred projects on the Ethereum (ETH) network. The analysis reportedly made use of machine learning techniques and was based on the interpretation of smart contract data and transaction patterns on the Ethereum blockchain. The combined value of all the tokens that the analyzed projects have allocated to their own teams, has gone down from $24.2 billion at the time of each individual token’s issuance to about $5 billion as of today. The conclusion drawn by BitMEX and TokenAnalysits from their research is that the ICO market suffers from a lack of standards and transparency, especially in regards to allocating tokens to the founding teams. BitMEX noted that the analysis could be further complicated by the ability of ICO teams to mint, burn, buy, and sell their own tokens.

ConsenSys Joins News Industry Leaders to Invest in New WordPress Publishing Platform

Blockchain tech firm ConsenSys has joined news industry leaders to contribute to the creation of a new revenue-generating news platform by WordPress. ConsenSys has invested $350,000 in the new WordPress project called Newspack, an open-source publishing platform for news companies. Apart from investing in the new proof-of-concept (PoC) initiative by WordPress, which is the world’s most popular website management system, ConsenSys will also provide the new publishing platform with a blockchain-powered native plugin for Civil. Backed by ConsenSys, Civil will allow any interested newsroom to join its community-owned journalism network and archive their content on decentralized storage systems. Civil Media is a ConsenSys-backed firm that claims to deploy cryptocurrency to save journalism. In October 2018, the company raised $1.4 million in an initial coin offering (ICO) out of a targeted $8 million. However, the since the goal was not met, Civil refunded the money but announced plans to launch in February 2019 despite the failure to meet the target.

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Wed, Jan 16, 08:00 Singapore Time zone UTC+8

USDJPY, +0.47%, $108.68
EURUSD, -0.57%, $1.1411
GBPUSD, +0.05%, $1.2866
USDCAD, -0.19%, $1.3261
AUDUSD, +0.06%, $0.7200
NZDUSD, -0.12%, $0.6815

S&P500, +1.07%, 2,610.30.
Nasdaq, +1.71%, 7,023.83
Nikkei Futures, +1.76%, 20,542.0

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

• The Producer Price Index for final demand declined -0.2% (consensus -0.1%) while the index for final demand, less food and energy, declined -0.1% (consensus +0.2%). The monthly changes left the index for final demand up 2.5% year-over-year, unchanged from November, and the index for final demand, less food and energy, up 2.7%, also unchanged from November. The key takeaway from this report is that producer price inflation is moderating, which will suggest in the market’s mind that consumer price inflation is going to as well.
• The bond market was quiet despite the gains in the stock market. The 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield were unchanged at 2.52% and 2.71%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 95.92. WTI crude rose 2.6% to $51.92/bbl.
• In Brexit, MPs voted by 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal – the heaviest defeat for a sitting government in history. A defeat has been broadly anticipated in markets since the agreement with the EU was closed in November 2018 and caused several members of the government to resign. The UK is still on course to leave on 29 March but the defeat throws the manner of that departure and the timing of it into further doubt. The probability of a no deal has diminished while the chances of a delay in Article 50, a second referendum or even, at the margin, no Brexit at all, have all increased. The consequence of those scenarios has encouraged Sterling to remain bid despite the PM suffering the worst parliamentary result in a century.

 STOCK MARKET WRAP 

• The S&P 500 gained 1.07% on Tuesday, as a shift to high-growth stocks helped the market rally past several earnings disappointments. The ability of the market to rally on bad news fed into a belief that the bad news was priced in already during the December rout, which in turn fuelled hope that bargain-hunting efforts will keep the 2019 rally going.
• Weaker-than-expected (but not weak) earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 101.68, +0.74, +0.7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC 47.67, -0.75, -1.6%) provided an early justification to sell the banks. JPMorgan missed both top and bottom line estimates, but net income increased 67%, earnings per share increased 85%, and net revenue growth increased 4%. Wells Fargo for its part missed top line estimates but beat earnings estimates. Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH 256.87, +8.81, +3.6%) outperformed after it beat earnings estimates and helped drive the leadership of the health care sector. The preference for high-growth tech stocks kept the broader market afloat despite the earnings disappointments. The outperformance of the growth stocks on Tuesday could be rationalized in part as an effort to invest in companies with stronger growth prospects amid a slowing growth environment. Netflix (NFLX 354.64, +21.70, +6.5%), for instance, remained in growth mode with reports indicating it will raise its U.S. subscription prices to finance its original content and heavy debt load.

Canadian Platform to Become the Major Global Crypto Exchange by Expanding to 100 Countries
Canadian-based CoinField plans to make crypto trading more accessible and cheaper for investors  irrespective of where they live so they can take advantage of when crypto prices go green. The exchange intends to become one of the largest trading platforms for cryptocurrencies. It is already available in 101 countries and the team plans to expand the service to more regions in 2019, including the United States. The trading platform says it offers real-time order books, trade history, charting tools, advanced limit and stop orders, and a user-friendly order process so that a user “can trade like a pro from day one.” Its engine is capable of conducting “75,000 trades per second, or up to 1.5 million API calls per second”. CoinField uses a “one of a kind secret vault that’s been built from scratch to store sensitive information on the system.” It currently offers deposit and withdrawal options for six different popular fiat currencies and 60 trading pairs for crypto. The platform has recently added four new digital assets.

European Blockchain Startup Launches Trading in Tokenized Securities
Belarus-based blockchain startup Currency.com has launched a trading platform for tokenized securities. The platform will initially host over 150 tokenized securities, tracking the underlying market price of financial instruments such as equity and commodities, it said, while over 10,000 similar offerings could be available in the future. The service lets investors buy a token that would reflect the performance of, say, an Apple share on the Nasdaq stock exchange, at the “same economic costs and benefits of an Apple share.” The mobile trading apps of the platform, both iOS and Android, are expected to be available as beta versions from February. The platform would allow investors to directly trade and invest in financial instruments using the cryptocurrencies bitcoin or ethereum, without first converting to fiat.

Huobi Exchange Hires Compliance Chief From Global Bank State Street
Huobi, the third largest cryptocurrency exchange by monthly trading volume, has hired a senior professional from a major U.S.-based global bank. As regulators in different countries are paying ever-closer attention at crypto, Huobi hopes to benefit from Sun’s expertise in working with government bodies around the world. CryptoRecruit has noticed a huge increase in the number of people from traditional banks who are extremely receptive when we approach them for potential job opportunities in crypto. Developers have been moving over from tech firms since last year but to see bankers making the move is reassuring as to where the future of this industry is headed.

NOTABLE MOVES 

As of Tue, Jan 15, 08:00 Singapore Time zone UTC+8

USDJPY, -0.20%, $108.24
EURUSD, +0.11%, $1.1473
GBPUSD, +0.21%, $1.2875
USDCAD, -0.04%, $1.3275
AUDUSD, -0.02%, $0.7200
NZDUSD, -0.10%, $0.6826

S&P500, -0.53%, 2,582.61.
Nasdaq, -0.94%, 6,905.92
Nikkei Futures, +0.20%, 20,187.0

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

• U.S. Treasuries finished mixed with the 2-yr yield decreasing three basis points to 2.52% and the 10-yr yield adding one basis point to 2.71% in a curve-steepening trade. The U.S. Dollar Index lost -0.1% to 95.59. WTI crude lost -2.1% to $50.58/bbl.
• For the next 48 hours, there’s nothing more important than the Brexit vote. Members of Parliament will begin voting on PM May’s withdrawal agreement at 7pm London time on Tuesday. There is no specific time for the vote to end, but it should happen in the late North American or early Asian session. At this point, May is expected to lose by a margin big enough to force her to seek an Article 50 extension. 

 STOCK MARKET WRAP 

• The broader market opened on a lower note, as disappointing trade data out of China stirred ongoing concerns over global economic growth. Specifically, China’s exports unexpectedly declined 4.4% year-over-year in December and its imports declined 7.6%. The S&P 500 lost -0.53% on Monday, pulling back from a three-week winning streak. The benchmark index never traded in positive territory but it did cut its intraday losses in half. The S&P 500 utilities (-2.3%), health care (-1.2%), and information technology (-0.9%) sectors weighed on the broader market. Conversely, the financials (+0.7%) sector helped offset losses and it was the only sector to finish in positive territory.
• In addition, the amount of attention surrounding the partial U.S. government shutdown, which is currently the longest in U.S. history with no clear end in sight, also weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 managed to bounce off its early lows as Citigroup (C 58.93, +2.24, +4.0%) overcame early weakness that was initially attributed to some disappointment over a fourth quarter revenue shortfall that overshadowed better-than-expected earnings results driven in part by expense savings and a lower tax rate. Citigroup was down more than -1.0% in pre-market hours but quickly reversed course shortly after the start of the trading session. Its quick turnaround, which several pundits attributed to a discounted valuation, helped lift other bank stocks and the financial space.

 

Major Spanish Energy Company to Use Blockchain in Renewable Energy Tracking
Spain’s major energy company, Iberdrola, has started using blockchain to track renewable energy. The first trial was conducted in cooperation with Kutxabank, a local bank based in the Basque Autonomous Community that owns a substantial part of Iberdrola’s equity, and its subsidiary Cajasur. The company used Energy Web Foundation — an open source blockchain platform designed to fit the regulatory, operational and market needs of the energy sector—  in their pilot. They found that blockchain enabled the company to establish a hierarchy of the producers and to automate the process of energy distribution. The test was a success, and Iberdrola believes that blockchain will contribute to the process of issuing guarantee of origin — a certificate that informs a customer about the source of the energy consumed. Moreover, decentralized solutions can help the industry to increase transparency and cut operational costs by eliminating middlemen.

 

Bulgarian Revenue Agency Announces Inspection of Cryptocurrency-Selling Companies
The Bulgarian National Revenue Agency (NRA) has announced the launch of inspections of cryptocurrency-selling companies. The Bulgarian RSA reportedly conducted a survey of the companies that own online platforms for the sale and purchase of cryptocurrencies like cryptocurrency exchanges and already assigned control actions (which presumably means checks) to nine companies. After the completion of the checks, the tax authority will reportedly use the information obtained from the platform to determine whether the users have declared their income from the use of cryptocurrency exchanges. In Bulgaria, the income from the sale of virtual currencies is declared in annual tax returns, treated as profit from the sale of a financial asset, and taxed at 10 percent. Companies profiting from the sale of crypto-assets are subject to taxation under the Corporate Income Tax Act.

 

Malaysian Cryptocurrency Regulation to Classify Digital Assets, Tokens as Securities
The Malaysian finance minister, Lim Guan Eng, reportedly said today that the Capital Markets and Services Order 2019 would become effective on Jan. 15.  The new regulation classifies digital currencies, tokens and crypto-assets as securities, placing them under the Securities Commission’s authority. Starting from Tuesday, any person operating unauthorized initial coin offerings (ICOs) or digital asset exchanges in Malaysia will be reportedly facing a 10-year jail sentence and a 10 million ($2.4 million) ringgit fine. Eng noted that the ministry believes digital assets offer both an alternative fundraising method and a new asset class for investors. The Malaysian government was still undecided whether to legalize cryptocurrencies just two days ago. Still, it has reportedly been clear since November of last year that Malaysia will enact regulations for cryptocurrency and ICOs in Q1 2019.