CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon 16 Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, -0.22%, 97.171  
USDJPY, +0.00%, 109.39           
EURUSD, +0.04%, 1.1125
GBPUSD, +0.21%, 1.3354             
USDCAD, +0.14%, 1.3187      
AUDUSD, -0.01%, 0.6875        
NZDUSD, -0.11%, 0.6592     

U.S. Total Retail Sales increased 0.2% m/m in November (consensus 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in October. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.2%) in October.

U.S. and China finally reached a Phase One trade deal that prevented the Dec. 15 tariffs from taking effect. Specifically, the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese imports will remain at 25%, the tariff rate on $120 billion of Chinese imports will be cut to 7.5% from 15%, and China will try to purchase $40-50 billion in U.S. farm goods, although this latter part has yet to be solidified. A deal will reportedly be signed in early January.

Trump said Phase Two discussions will begin immediately, which should focus on issues pertaining to forced technology transfers and IP rights, according to NEC Director Kudlow. The market’s muted reaction to the partial deal was presumably attributed to it already being priced into the market’s record run. Some skepticism about the limited details and China’s commitment lingered.

U.S. Treasuries reversed the bulk of yesterday’s sell-off, driving yields noticeably lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield fell seven basis points to 1.60%, and the 10-yr yield fell eight basis points to 1.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 97.20. WTI crude rose 1.6%, or $0.93, to $60.11/bbl.

Separately, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party easily won the general election, paving the way for a Brexit by the end of January. UK’s FTSE rose 1.1%, and the British pound rallied 1.4% against the dollar to 1.3339.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.21%, 3,178.62         
Nasdaq, +0.49%, 8,535.75             
Nikkei Futures, -0.28%, 23,892.5       

The S&P 500 energy (-0.9%), materials (-0.8%), and financials (-0.5%) sectors did some pulling back, while the utilities (+0.8%) and information technology (+0.6%) sectors outperformed. Shares of Apple (AAPL 275.15, +3.69, +1.4%) climbed further into record territory.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-0.6%) was pressured by a negative reaction to Broadcom’s (AVGO 315.42, -12.38, -3.8%) earnings report. Oracle (ORCL 54.51, -1.96, -3.5%) and Costco (COST 291.87, -5.47, -1.8%) also had disappointing earnings-based reactions, while Adobe (ADBE 317.94, +11.98, +3.9%) outperformed following its results.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri 13 Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.20%, 97.250
USDJPY, +0.78%, 109.40         
EURUSD, +0.48%, 1.1184
GBPUSD, +2.11%, 1.3474          
USDCAD, -0.14%, 1.3154       
AUDUSD, +0.71%, 0.6925
NZDUSD, +0.50%, 0.6619      

U.S. PPI was unchanged m/m in November (consensus 0.2%) while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, declined 0.2% (consensus 0.2%). That left the y/y increases at 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively, versus 1.1% and 1.6% in October. Initial claims for the week ending December 7 rose by 49,000 to 252,000 (consensus 212,000). Continuing claims for the week ending November 30 decreased by 31,000 to 1.667 million.

U.S. session started with Trump tweeting that a trade deal was close and The Wall Street Journal reporting that the U.S. offered to reduce existing tariffs and cancel the Dec. 15 tariffs. Later, Bloomberg reported that a deal in principle was reached and was awaiting Trump’s signature. A deal would include rolling back some tariffs and delaying the Dec. 15 tariffs in exchange for China to purchase more U.S. farm goods. Stocks rallied toward session highs while Treasuries continued to sell-off in a risk-on trade.

The 2-yr yield rose six basis points to 1.67%, and the 10-yr yield rose 11 basis points to 1.90%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 97.29.

Overseas, it was election day in the UK, but polls remained opened by the close of U.S. markets. The ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday, as was expected, while Lagarde said she was seeing initial signs of recovery.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.86%, 3,168.57       
Nasdaq, +0.73%, 8,717.32              
Nikkei Futures, +2.14%, 23,870.0           

The S&P 500 cyclical sectors led the advance, with the energy sector (+2.0%) finding additional support in higher oil prices ($59.18, +0.44, +0.8%) and the financials sector (+2.0%) benefiting from some curve-steepening activity. Trade-sensitive stocks like Wynn Resorts (WYNN 132.27, +11.44, +9.5%) and those in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.7%) also outperformed.

In other corporate news, Delta Air Lines (DAL 56.69, +1.61, +2.9%) pleased investors with a reassuring FY20 forecast. General Electric (GE 11.44, +0.47, +4.3%) and FedEx (FDX 164.89, +5.81, +3.7%) benefited from analyst upgrades.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu 12 Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, -0.23%, 97.385
USDJPY, -0.14%, 108.56         
EURUSD, +0.36%, 1.1133
GBPUSD, +0.33%, 1.3199           
USDCAD, -0.03%, 1.3234
AUDUSD, +0.87%, 0.6869
NZDUSD, +0.55%, 0.6581      

U.S. CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month in November (consensus +0.2%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, as expected, for the second straight month.

The FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate at 1.50-1.75%, as was widely expected. Thus, the positive reaction in the market may have been more attributed to the median projection for the policy rate in 2020 signaling no change.  Powell for his part reiterated he would need to see a persistent and significant rise in inflation to hike rates.

Generally, yesterday’s Fed news was viewed favorably, but several upcoming events likely helped restrain risk sentiment. Coming up are an ECB policy decision and UK election later today and another round of tariffs on Chinese imports on Sunday, which may or may not happen. The trade uncertainty presumably had more influence on sentiment.

U.S. Treasuries, which were already trending higher before the FOMC announcement, extended gains during Powell’s press conference. Both the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield declined four basis points each to 1.61% and 1.79%, respectively, with investors presumably unconcerned about inflation. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 97.10. WTI crude fell 0.8% (-0.47) to $58.74/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.32%, 3,146.12    
Nasdaq, +0.61%, 8,414.62            
Nikkei Futures, -0.08%, 23,391.86         

The broader advance was kept in check, though, with the S&P 500 materials (+0.7%), information technology (+0.7%), and industrials (+0.7%) sectors finishing atop the standings. The real estate (-0.8%), financials (-0.2%), and energy (-0.2%) sectors finished in negative territory.

The trade-sensitive Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.2%) posted an outsized gain. All 30 components finished higher, as the space likely drew support from the positive results and upbeat guidance from Photronics (PLAB 15.13, +2.56, +20.4%).

Dow components Home Depot (HD 212.00, -3.90, -1.8%) and Chevron (CVX 116.22, -1.67, -1.4%) weighed on the price-weighted index amid some negative news. Home Depot provided preliminary FY20 sales guidance that was below expectations. Chevron announced an $11 billion write-down of its gas assets in the fourth quarter.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed 11 Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, -0.05%, 97.609
USDJPY, -0.06%, 108.58       
EURUSD, +0.26%, 1.1093     
GBPUSD, -0.12%, 1.3130       
USDCAD, -0.03%, 1.3234
AUDUSD, -0.18%, 0.6811
NZDUSD, -0.08%, 0.6544    

U.S. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.2% in the third quarter (consensus -0.1%), according to the revised estimate, versus a previously reported 0.3% decrease. Unit labor costs increased 2.5% (consensus 3.4%) versus a previously reported 3.6% increase.

According to The Wall Street Journal, a tariff delay would come as negotiators work to ensure China commits to purchasing more U.S. farm goods. A follow-up report from the South China Morning Post indicated that the delay is likely, but NEC Director Kudlow responded that the tariffs are still on the table. Kudlow could not confirm if the tariffs will be delayed.

This unresolved trade front was contrasted with House Speaker Pelosi announcing that a USMCA deal has been reached. Of course, the market has always been more concerned about a U.S.-China trade deal than a USMCA deal, so the latter didn’t provide much enthusiasm in the market. Impeachment talk remained a non-factor.

U.S. Treasuries finished the session mixed. The 2-yr yield increased three basis points to 1.65%, and the 10-yr yield was unchanged at 1.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 97.45. WTI crude increased 0.4%, or $0.24, to $59.21/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.01%, 3,134.12
Nasdaq, +0.06%,8,360.88        
Nikkei Futures, -0.09%, 23,410.19      

Most S&P 500 sectors wavered near their unchanged marks throughout the session. The real estate (-0.7%) and materials (-0.6%) sectors diverted with relatively larger declines, while the energy (+0.2%) and health care (+0.2%) sectors finished higher.

AutoZone (AZO 1250.00, +81.00, +6.9%) and Stitch Fix (SFIX 26.23, +1.21, +4.8%) outperformed in earnings-driven advances, while Netflix (NFLX 293.12, -9.38, -3.1%) underperformed after it was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Needham.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP

As of Mon 9th Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.30%, 97.380
USDJPY, -0.06%, $108.64
EURUSD, -0.02%, $1.1058
GBPUSD, +0.05%, 1.3139
USDCAD, +0.04%, $1.3251
AUDUSD, -0.02%, $0.6835
NZDUSD, -0.03%, $0.6558    

The headline nonfarm payrolls figure increased by 266,000 (consensus of 182,000), which blew past many of the estimates on Wall Street. Other key figures included the unemployment rate declining to 3.5% (consensus 3.6%) from 3.6% in October and average hourly earnings increasing 0.2% (consensus 0.3%).

Supporting risk sentiment was a better-than-expected preliminary consumer sentiment reading for December and an announcement from China that it started to exempt some U.S. agricultural purchases from tariffs. Altogether, the news reinforced a positive economic outlook with the Fed presumably on hold, the state of the consumer in good shape, and the trade situation seemingly improving.

The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.63%, and the 10-yr yield increased five basis points to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.3% to 97.68.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.91%, 3,145.91
Nasdaq, +1.00%, 8,656.53
Nikkei Futures, +0.27%, 23,418.50    

The energy sector (+2.0%) led the advance amid some key OPEC+ news that contributed to higher oil prices ($59.20, +0.75, +1.3%). The oil producers agreed to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day until March, with Saudi Arabia also offering up to an additional 400,000 barrel cut of its own.

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs (GS 224.61, +7.47, +3.4%) outperformed after Bloomberg reported that the bank could settle its 1MDB scandal for less than $2 billion, which would also be less than expected. Ulta Beauty (ULTA 262.20, +26.18, +11.1%) climbed more than 10% after providing positive earnings results and upbeat earnings guidance.

Separately, Dow components Apple (AAPL 270.71, +5.13, +1.9%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 135.04, +1.98, +1.5%), and Nike (NKE 97.00, +1.21, +1.3%) set new all-time highs on Friday.

Currency Market Wrap

As of Fri 6th Dec, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, -0.22%, 97.39
USDJPY, -0.12%, $108.72
EURUSD, +0.23%, $1.1104
GBPUSD, +0.42%, $1.3159
USDCAD, -0.20%, $1.3175
AUDUSD, -0.26%, $0.6833
NZDUSD, +0.22%, $0.6543

U.S. Initial claims for the week ending November 30 dropped by 10,000 to 203,000 (consensus 221,000). Continuing claims for the week ending November 23 increased by 51,000 to 1.693 million.

China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing has maintained close contact with the U.S., which Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indirectly backed up when he told reporters that talks remain on track after a recent phone call. The latest sticking point, according to The Wall Street Journal, is the value of farm goods the U.S. wants China to purchase. The latter report caused a brief dip in the market, but stocks quickly recovered on the presumption that discussions are still moving toward a Phase One deal.

U.S. Treasuries finished the session on a lower note. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.59%, and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.22% to 97.39. WTI crude finished little changed at $58.45/bbl as OPEC+ convened in Vienna to discuss production cuts.

Stock Market Wrap

S&P500, +0.15%, 3,117.43
Nasdaq, +0.05%, 8,570.70
Nikkei Futures, +0.28, 23,342.5

Yesterday’s outright leader was the lightly-weighted S&P 500 materials sector (+0.7%). Conversely, the energy sector (-0.5%) succumbed to broad-based selling while the consumer staples sector (-0.2%) was pressured by earnings-driven losses in Kroger (KR 26.80, -0.84, -3.0%) and Brown-Forman (BF.B 63.57, -4.27, -6.3%).

Notable gainers included Apple (AAPL 265.58, +3.84, +1.5%) and Nike (NKE 95.79, +2.07, +2.2%) after the stocks received positive-minded analyst recommendations. Apple’s price target was raised to $300 from $250 at Citigroup. Nike was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and was placed on its Conviction Buy List.

The biotech space also had some noteworthy moves. Sage Therapeutics (SAGE 60.18, -89.03, -59.7%) tanked after a Phase 3 study did not meet its primary endpoint for major depressive disorder, while Aurinia Pharma (AUPH 15.00, +6.61, +78.8%) surged following a positive Phase 3 result for a lupus drug. Biogen (BIIB 299.39, +9.87, +3.4%) provided a well-received update for its Alzheimer’s drug.