CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu 28th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.12%, 98.37
USDJPY, +0.30%, $109.38
EURUSD, -0.14%, $1.1005
GBPUSD, +0.49%, $1.2930
USDCAD, +0.11%, $1.3286
AUDUSD, -0.29%, $0.6769
NZDUSD, -0.22%, $0.6413

U.S. key data points included durable goods orders unexpectedly rising 0.6% in October (consensus -0.7%), weekly jobless claims reversing two straight weekly increases, and Q2 GDP being revised up to 2.1% (consensus 1.9%) from 1.9% in the advance estimate. As for trade, Trump said the U.S. and China are in the “final throes of a very important deal.”

U.S. Treasuries ended the session on a lower note, sending yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield both increased three basis points each to 1.62% and 1.77%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.12% to 98.37. WTI crude declined 0.5%, or $0.30, to $58.11/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.42%, 3,153.63
Nasdaq, +0.66%, 8,705.17
Nikkei Futures, +0.36%, 23,463.0

It was a steady, broad-based advance that was reflected across gains in ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, most notably in the consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%). Sentiment on trade and the economy remained upbeat following mostly positive economic reports and some trade comments from Trump.

Trading volume was understandably lighter than usual before the holiday, but that shouldn’t take away from the bullish narrative propelling stocks higher. Some of the market’s most familiar, and widely-owned, stocks in Apple (AAPL 267.84, +3.55, +1.3%), Amazon (AMZN 1818.51, +21.57, +1.2%), and Facebook (FB 202.00, +3.03, +1.5%) saw increased buying interest.

The S&P 500 industrials sector (-0.2%) was the lone holdout today amid losses in Boeing (BA 368.00, -5.51, -1.5%) and Deere (DE 169.06, -7.59, -4.3%). Boeing was pressured by news that the FAA will take control in re-certifying the airworthiness of each 737 MAX plane. In Deere’s case, its cautious FY20 guidance outweighed its revenue beat.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed Nov 27th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, -0.07%, 98.25
USDJPY, +0.17%, $109.11
EURUSD, +0.08%, $1.1022
GBPUSD, -0.30%, $1.2860
USDCAD, -0.21%, $1.3271
AUDUSD, +0.10%, $0.6787
NZDUSD, +0.13%, $0.6427

U.S. New home sales in October decreased 0.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 units (consensus 710,000) from an upwardly revised 738,000 (from 701,000) in September. On a yr/yr basis, new home sales were up 31.6%. The S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index for September increased 2.1% (consensus 2.6%) following an unrevised 2.0% increase in August. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November eased to 125.5 (consensus 126.9) from 125.9 in October, marking the fourth straight monthly retreat.

The Advance International Trade in Goods report for October showed a narrowing in the deficit to $66.5 billion from $70.5 billion in September. Advance Retail Inventories were up 0.3% on top of a 0.2% increase in September and Advance Wholesale Inventories increased 0.2% after declining 0.7% in September.

Risk-appetite was less pronounced than yesterday, but the same factors that have contributed to the market’s record run – trade progress, low rates, low volatility, and supportive monetary policy expectations -remained intact. As for trade, China’s Commerce Ministry said top negotiators held a phone call in which both sides agreed on how to properly resolve outstanding issues for a Phase One deal.

U.S. Treasuries continued to increase, which sent yields slightly lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined three basis point to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.07% to 98.25. WTI crude increased 0.6%, or $0.32, to $58.30/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.22%, 3,140.52
Nasdaq, +0.18%, 8,647.93
Nikkei Futures, +0.51%, 23,450.0

Leading the advance were the S&P 500 real estate (+1.4%), consumer staples (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.8%), and materials (+0.5%) sectors. The energy (-1.0%), financials (-0.1%), and health care (-0.1%) sectors were the lone holdouts.

Other outperformers in the stock market included the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 44.84, +0.27, +0.6%), which benefited from upbeat earnings forecasts, and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB 45.89, +0.61, +1.4%), which benefited from new home sales in October coming in better than expected at 733,000 units (consensus 710,000).

Best Buy (BBY 81.57, +7.32, +9.9%), Burlington Stores (BURL 225.97, +17.71, +8.5%), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS 46.77, +7.34, +18.6%) impressed investors with their results and guidance, the latter of which is especially important for the retailers with the holiday-shopping season nearly in full swing. Dollar Tree (DLTR 95.26, -17.13, -15.2%) failed to meet expectations.

Separately, several Dow components set new all-time highs today. Walt Disney (DIS 151.64, +1.95, +1.3%) was one of them after the stock was initiated with an Outperform rating at Consumer Edge Research with a price target of $175.

 

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue Nov 26th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.03%, 98.29
USDJPY, +0.25%, $109.00
EURUSD, -0.11%, $1.1011
GBPUSD, +0.35%, $1.2896
USDCAD, +0.05%, $1.3304
AUDUSD, -0.22%, $0.6776
NZDUSD, +0.10%, $0.6415

Press reports indicated that Chinese government officials called to increase penalties on IP theft, which was interpreted as a move that could help strike a Phase One deal. It should be noted that a separate report from Reuters that suggested a Phase Two deal before the 2020 election is unlikely to be reached did not have a noticeable effect on the market.

U.S. Treasuries finished the session on a higher note despite the risk sentiment displayed in the stock market. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.61%, and the 10-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.76%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.03% to 98.29. WTI crude increased 0.2%, or $0.10, to $57.98/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.75%, 3,133.64
Nasdaq, +1.32%, 8,519.88
Nikkei Futures, +0.69%, 23,458.0

U.S. stocks rallied on Monday to lift the S&P 500 (+0.75%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.32%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) to new closing records, as investors reacted positively to Chinese efforts to better protect intellectual property rights. Sizable M&A activity across several sectors also supported risk sentiment.

The S&P 500 information technology sector (+1.4%), which typically outperforms when the prevailing view on trade is positive, led all sectors in gains amid strength in the semiconductor stocks. NVIDIA (NVDA 221.21, +10.32, +4.9%) was a notable gainer after the stock was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.4%.

Two of yesterday’s M&A deals were ones that were already on the market’s radar: Charles Schwab (SCHW 49.31, +1.11, +2.3%) agreed to acquire TD Ameritrade (AMTD 51.78, +3.65, +7.6%) for $26 billion in an all-stock transaction, and LVMH (LVMUY 89.37, +1.98, +2.3%) agreed to acquire Tiffany & Co. (TIF 133.25, +7.74, +6.2%) for $16.2 billion in cash.

New deals included Novartis (NVS 91.30, +0.82, +0.9%) agreeing to acquire The Medicines Co. (MDCO 83.80, +15.25, +22.3%) for $9.7 billion in cash and eBay (EBAY 35.85, +0.73, +2.1%) agreeing to sell StubHub to Viagogo for $4.05 billion in cash.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon Nov 25th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.31%, 98.27
USDJPY, +0.02%, $108.66
EURUSD, -0.32%, $1.1024
GBPUSD, -0.63%, $1.2832
USDCAD, -0.17%, $1.3281
AUDUSD, -0.01%, $0.6786
NZDUSD, +0.11%, $0.6410

The final November reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index checked in at 96.8 (consensus 94.9), which exceeded the preliminary estimate of 95.7 and the final October reading of 95.5. The November reading is in close proximity to the average level (97.0) since the start of 2017. The key takeaway from the report is the acknowledgment that consumers aren’t anticipating sizable increases in inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, which suggests consumer spending activity should remain supportive for the U.S. economy.

The market heard from both Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi, on Friday. Xi called for mutual respect and equality in talks, but reiterated Beijing is willing to fight back if necessary. Trump said talks are moving along nicely and closing in on a deal, but the president suggested a deal should not be equal and should favour the U.S. instead. The takeaway was that the market still doesn’t know for certain if a Phase One trade agreement will be signed this year, but talks are ongoing and appear to not be escalating.

U.S. Treasuries ended the week on a flat note. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.63%, and the 10-yr yield was unchanged at 1.77%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.31% to 98.27. WTI crude declined 1.2%, or $0.70, to $57.88/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.22%, 3,110.29
Nasdaq, +0.16%, 8,519.88
Nikkei Futures, +0.35%, 23,130.0

Leading the market in gains were the S&P 500 financials (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.7%), and industrials (+0.5%) sectors. The real estate (-0.5%) and energy (-0.4%) sectors were today’s laggards.

Nordstrom (JWN 37.95, +3.63, +10.6%) and Gap (GPS 16.94, +0.72, +4.4%) were among the biggest earnings-driven gainers in the consumer discretionary space, while an earnings-driven decline in Intuit (INTU 259.81, -11.34, -4.2%) put some pressure on the information technology sector (-0.1%).

Elsewhere, the futuristic design of Tesla’s (TSLA 333.04, -21.79, -6.1%) Cybertruck pickup was met with some confusion and mixed reviews. Ultimately, it appeared to be a sell-the-news case after the stock climbed about 40% in the past month.

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CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri Nov 22nd, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

U.S. Dollar Index, +0.09%, 97.96
USDJPY, +0.03%, $108.58
EURUSD, -0.07%, $1.1065
GBPUSD, -0.03%, $1.2919
USDCAD, -0.17%, $1.3281
AUDUSD, -0.21%, $0.6788
NZDUSD, -0.22%, $0.6405

U.S. Initial claims for the week ending November 16 came in at 227,000 (consensus 216,000). Continuing claims for the week ending November 9 were up 3,000 to 1.695 million.

Yesterday’s trade news had little to do with actual progress and didn’t help clarify any uncertainty. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He reportedly extended an invitation to host another round of talks in Beijing and is “cautiously optimistic” about a deal. It was also speculated that the Dec. 15 tariffs could be delayed, even if a deal gets pushed back to next year.

The recent advance in the Treasury market was halted, sending yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.61%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 1.77%. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.96.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.16%, 3,103.54
Nasdaq, -0.24%, 8,506.21
Nikkei Futures, -0.44%, 23,038.0

Perhaps the biggest story of the day, though, was Charles Schwab (SCHW 48.03, +3.28, +7.3%) holding talks to acquire TD Ameritrade (AMTD 48.38, +7.00, +16.9%). CNBC and FOX Business both broke the news, with the latter placing a $26 billion price tag on the potential deal. Both stocks rose considerably, while shares of E*Trade (ETFC 41.58, -4.28, -9.3%) fell 9%.

On the earnings front, the retail space remained in focus. L Brands (LB 17.17, +1.58, +10.1%) was in demand after the company guided Q4 EPS above consensus, while Macy’s (M 14.67, -0.35, -2.3%) and BJ’s Wholesale (BJ 23.84, -2.09, -8.1%) went on sale following their discouraging results and guidance.

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