Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 3rd July 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed Jul 3rd, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.09%, 96.72
USDJPY, -0.50%, $107.83
EURUSD, +0.04%, $1.1291
GBPUSD, -0.37%, $1.2597
USDCAD, -0.29%, $1.3097
AUDUSD, +0.40%, $0.6994
NZDUSD, +0.09%, $0.6678

Longer-dated Treasuries settled near their session highs while the 3-month bill underperformed with no apparent catalyst. The 10-yr yield fell six basis points to 1.98% while the 3-month yield rose three basis points to 2.19%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell -0.12%, 96.72.

Gold rallied to recover its previous losses, settling higher by 3.30% at $1,434.30. The rally in gold accelerated after Russian President Putin unexpectedly pulled out of a scheduled event to meet with his defense minister minutes after U.S. Vice President Pence abruptly returned to D.C. Nothing has been revealed but there are reports that this could be related to a nuclear sub accident. The Vice President Pence’s spokeswoman later said that there is no cause for alarm while an unnamed White House official told Bloomberg that the reason for the return will be revealed “weeks from now.”

On the international front, EU officials have agreed on nominees to top EU jobs. All nominations were in-line with the morning’s report from Die Welt. Germany’s Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was nominated to replace EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker while IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was nominated to take over for Mario Draghi at the ECB. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel was proposed as the replacement for EU Council President Tusk while Josep Borrell Fontelles was nominated to replace Federica Mogherini as the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The nominees still need to be approved by the EU Parliament.

As expected, RBA lowered interest rates for the second time this year by 25bp to a new record low of 1%. They left the door open to additional easing, which should have been negative for the currency but after falling initially, Aussie recovered within minutes because the central bank mentioned a few improvements in house prices, infrastructure spending and resources investment. In addition, the July cut was already 90% priced in, hence there was little surprise.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.29%, 2,973.01
Nasdaq, +0.41%, 7,799.82
Nikkei Futures, -0.49%, 21,662.5

S&P 500 (+0.29%) ended Tuesday on a modestly higher note thanks to a late push that lifted the indices out of the red. Relative weakness among small cap names sent the Russell 2000 lower by 0.6%. Countercyclical sectors recorded gains across the board, which helped the S&P 500 stage its late rally. Rate-sensitive real estate (+1.8%) and utilities (+1.2%) finished in the lead. Elsewhere, relative weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-0.8%) kept the industrials sector (-0.1%) in negative territory. Delta Airlines (DAL 58.54, +0.75, +1.3%) bucked the trend among DJTA members, after boosting its Q2 guidance.

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The Week Ahead, Trade Opportunities

Trade Opportunity: USD/TRY – Adding to shorts

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

USD/TRY Daily Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart  – SHORT

If USD/TRY closes decisively below the daily ichimoku cloud, we will be looking to add to our shorts (established at the end of May) on any future retracements.

 

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 2nd July 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue Jul 2nd, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.70%, 96.81
USDJPY, +0.45%, $108.38
EURUSD, -0.73%, $1.1287
GBPUSD, -0.40%, $1.2644
USDCAD, +0.32%, $1.3135
AUDUSD, -0.76%, $0.6966
NZDUSD, -0.70%, $0.6672

Markets started positively on Monday after Saturday’s meeting between Trump and President Xi. While the meeting did not yield concrete steps toward reaching a trade deal, it also did not lead to an escalation of the dispute. Instead, Trump agreed to relax restrictions on sales of components to Huawei and agreed to not impose additional tariffs on imports from China at this time.

The economic situation in major export centers remains weak. To that point, China’s Manufacturing PMI (actual 49.4 from 50.2) remained in contractionary territory in the final June reading, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3 from 49.5, and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone slipped to 47.6 from 47.8. Adding additional weight to the gloomy sentiment on exports, South Korea reported that its exports decreased 13.5% yr/yr in June. To be fair, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index also decreased in June (to 51.7 from 52.1), but it remained in expansionary territory, serving as a reminder that the U.S. economy is still a pocket of relative strength.

Relative strength in U.S. data gave a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index, which climbed 0.51% to 96.81, reclaiming its 200-day moving average in the process. Treasuries ended in the red with shorter tenors leading the retreat. The 10-yr yield rose three basis points to 2.03% while the 2-yr yield rose five basis points to 1.79%.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.77%, 2,964.33
Nasdaq, +1.27%, 7,768.14
Nikkei Futures, +0.11%, 21,667.5

Stock market began the week on a higher note, but the major averages were only able to keep a portion of their gains through the close. The S&P 500 gained 0.77% after being up 1.0% at the start while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.1% after starting the session with a 1.7% gain.

Stocks surged out of the gate with chipmakers leading the opening rally, which was not a surprise given the group’s sensitivity to trade-related matters. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was up nearly 5.0% at the start of the session but trimmed its gain to 2.7% by the close. Huawei supplier Inphi (IPHI 53.67, +3.57, +7.1%) was the top performer within the group, rallying 7.1%. Semiconductor giant, Intel (INTC 48.05, +0.18, +0.4%), jumped above its 200-day moving average (48.85) at the start, but narrowed its gain to just 0.4% as the session wore on.

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Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 1st Jul 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon Jul 1st, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.06%, 96.13
USDJPY, +0.14%, $107.89
EURUSD, -0.01%, $1.1370
GBPUSD, +0.17%, $1.2695
USDCAD, -0.02%, $1.3092
AUDUSD, +0.21%, $0.7020
NZDUSD, +0.25%, $0.6719

U.S. Treasuries finished little changed on Friday. The 2-yr yield remained at 1.74%, and the 10-yr yield declined one basis point to 2.00%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished relatively unchanged at 96.13. WTI crude fell 1.7% to $58.38/bbl after news that several EU nations set up a trade channel with Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions.

The United States and China agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks after Trump offered concessions including no new tariffs and an easing of restrictions on tech company Huawei in order to reduce tensions with Beijing. “We’re right back on track,” Trump told reporters after an 80-minute meeting with President Xi at a summit of leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies in Osaka, Japan. “We’re holding back on tariffs and they’re going to buy farm products,” Trump said, without giving details about the purchases. Trump tweeted hours later that the meeting with Xi went “far better than expected.” Trump said the U.S. Commerce Department would study in the next few days whether to take Huawei off the list of firms banned from buying components and technology from U.S. companies without government approval. China welcomed the step.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.58%, 2,941.76
Nasdaq, +0.18%, 7,671.07
Nikkei Futures, +0.01%, 21,260.0

S&P 500 gained 0.58% on Friday, wrapping up its best June since 1955 and closing out the quarter on a high note, as the market positioned itself for the G-20 meeting between Trump and President Xi.

The S&P 500 financials sector (+1.4%) had its own catalyst, rising on the back of bank stocks after the Fed did not object to the capital plans of 18 of the largest banking institutions. As a result, most of these firms will increase their quarterly dividends and buy back more of their outstanding shares. The rest of the S&P 500 sectors also finished higher, buoyed by a last-minute pop into the close. The energy (+1.2%), industrials (+1.0%), and materials (+0.9%) sectors outperformed the broader market.

Shares of Apple (AAPL 197.92, -1.82, -0.9%) were under pressure after the company announced the departure of its long-time chief design officer, Jony Ives. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple will move production of its new Mac Pro to China from the U.S.

In earnings news, Nike (NKE 83.95, +0.29, +0.4%) missed profit estimates for the first time in seven years, but it did calm some nerves after it maintained its full-year guidance. Constellation Brands (STZ 196.94, +8.73, +4.6%) pleased investors with its solid results and upbeat guidance.

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Market Summary

2 min Market Summary: 28th Jun 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri Jun 28th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.02%, 96.19     
USDJPY, -0.04%, $107.74
EURUSD, +0.02%, $1.1371        
GBPUSD, -0.13%, $1.2673
USDCAD, -0.25%, $1.3095
AUDUSD, +0.29%, $0.7005
NZDUSD, +0.33%, $0.6702

Trump will meet with President Xi on the second day of the G-20 summit (Friday night in the U.S., Saturday morning in Japan), which will provide the market more clarity on the prospects for a deal. The South China Morning Post indicated that the two sides reached a trade truce to advance talks, but NEC Director Larry Kudlow said no specific agreements have been made prior to the summit. The Wall Street Journal also followed up, specifying that President Xi will outline a set of conditions to Trump that the U.S. should meet in order to continue talks. 

U.S. Treasuries finished on a higher note, driving yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined four basis points each to 1.74% and 2.01%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index was unchanged at 96.19. WTI crude increased 0.1% to $59.37/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.38%, 2,924.92
Nasdaq, +0.39%, 7,657.05
Nikkei Futures, +0.84%, 21,227.5

S&P 500 advanced 0.38% on Thursday, snapping a four-session losing streak, as investors looked forward to the G-20 summit in Japan. Shares of financial companies led the broad-based advance, while energy stocks capped additional gains. Boeing (BA 364.02, -10.92) was a notable laggard, losing 2.9% after it disclosed that the FAA asked it to address a risk that its 737 software patch overlooked. Boeing said that it will need an additional three months to fix the issue, raising some questions about its earnings outlook.

In earnings news, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 54.52, +2.14, +4.1%) and KB Home (KBH 25.39, +1.86, +7.9%) both pleased investors with their results. Conagra Brands (CAG 25.43, -3.50, -12.1%), on the other hand, let investors down with disappointing earnings results and guidance.

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Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 27th June 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu, Jun 27th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.02%, 96.17
USDJPY, +0.52%, $107.75
EURUSD, -0.04%, $1.1370
GBPUSD, -0.37%, $1.2690
USDCAD, +0.01%, $1.3120
AUDUSD, +0.16%, $0.6985
NZDUSD, +0.07%, $0.6680

U.S. Treasuries finished on a lower note, driving yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.78%, and the 10-yr yield increased six basis points to 2.05%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.02% to 96.17.

U.S. market’s best levels of the day came shortly after the opening bell, as many headlines called attention to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s optimistic tone in a morning interview with CNBC. It should be noted, though, that Mnuchin simply reiterated that the U.S. was 90% close to a deal, which he said in April, and that there remains a path to a deal. It wasn’t too surprising to see the market react positively to old trade news in front of the highly-anticipated G-20 summit this weekend. That summit could bring potential market-moving news but given the uncertainty of the outcome, and the market re-calculating the Fed’s rate decision next month, the mood felt less enthusiastic towards the U.S. closing bell.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.95%, 2,917.38
Nasdaq, -1.70%, 7,591.54
Nikkei Futures, -0.94%, 21,030.0

S&P 500 declined 0.1% on Wednesday in a mixed session. Cyclical sectors provided the market some support, but weakness in the defensive-oriented sectors dragged on the broader market. The broader market finished little changed, but there were some big moves in the S&P 500 sectors. The defensive-oriented utilities (-2.2%), real estate (-2.0%), consumer staples (-1.4%), and health care (-1.3%) sectors declined noticeably. The cyclical energy (+1.5%), information technology (+1.1%), consumer discretionary (+0.4%), and industrials (+0.2%) sectors were the lone sectors to finish higher on Wednesday.

Higher oil prices ($59.37/bbl, +$1.53, +2.6%) fueled broad-based buying in the energy space after the EIA released some bullish inventory data. The tech sector derived its strength from shares of Apple (AAPL 199.80, +4.23, +2.2%) and many of the semiconductor stocks, which outperformed after Micron (MU 37.04, +4.36, +13.3%) pleased investors with solid quarterly results and better-than-feared guidance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 3.2%.

In other earnings news, investors were able to overlook downside earnings guidance from FedEx (FDX 159.92, +3.94, +2.5%), suggesting that much of the bad news may have already been priced-in to the stock’s recent underperformance. FedEx also beat earnings estimates. General Mills (GIS 51.31, -2.39, -4.5%), on the other hand, disappointed investors with a revenue miss.

 

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Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 26th June 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed, Jun 26th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.20%, 96.18
USDJPY, -0.15%, $107.14
EURUSD, -0.29%, $1.1367
GBPUSD, -0.37%, $1.2690
USDCAD, -0.03%, $1.3179
AUDUSD, -0.10%, $0.6959
NZDUSD, +0.16%, $0.6634

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (FOMC voter), who was the lone dissenter in this month’s FOMC meeting, said he didn’t think it was necessary to cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points. Instead, he favored a 25 basis points reduction, viewing it as an “insurance” cut. This stance from one of the Fed’s most vocal doves, in addition to comments from Fed Chair Powell, tempered the market’s hopes for a 50 basis points cut next month. Powell reminded the market that monetary policy should not overreact to any individual data point or short-term swings in sentiment.

In Trade, expectations for the upcoming G-20 summit were also lowered after a White House official told Reuters that the U.S. will not accept any new tariff conditions and that the U.S. is not willing to concede to the Chinese on trade. The goal is to simply reopen talks, which was not the constructive tone the market was anticipating.

U.S. Treasuries finished on a mostly higher note. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 1.74%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 1.99%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 96.18. WTI crude was unchanged at $57.81/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP S&P500, -0.95%, 2,917.38
Nasdaq, -1.70%, 7,591.54
Nikkei Futures, -0.94%, 21,030.0

S&P 500 lost 0.95% on Tuesday, as subdued expectations for next month’s Fed rate decision and the upcoming G-20 summit contributed to a risk-off mood. Shares of technology companies, particularly the mega-cap stocks, underperformed the broader market. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by the mega-cap stocks within the information technology (-1.8%), communication services (-1.6%), and consumer discretionary (-1.1%) sectors. The materials sector was unchanged.

In M&A news, the health care sector (-0.4%) was home to a mega-merger deal on Tuesday. AbbVie (ABBV 65.70, -12.75, -16.3%) announced it will acquire Allergan (AGN 162.43, +32.86, +25.4%) for about $63 billion, or $188.24 per share, in cash and stock. With shares of AbbVie losing over 16%, the premium was reduced to 37% over AGN’s closing price on Monday.

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 25th June 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue, Jun 25th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.11%, 96.00
USDJPY, -0.01%, $107.30
EURUSD, +0.29%, $1.1401
GBPUSD, -0.03%, $1.2738
USDCAD, -0.29%, $1.3184
AUDUSD, +0.60%, $0.6966
NZDUSD, +0.51%, $0.6623

U.S. Treasuries finished on a higher note, pushing yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined four basis points to 1.74%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 2.02%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.11% to 96.00 for its fourth consecutive decline. WTI crude increased 0.8% to $57.82/bbl.

Trump signed a separate executive order, hitting Iran with new sanctions after it shot down a U.S. military drone last week. Market reaction was muted, as Trump already indicated last week that more sanctions were coming.

In Trade, Trump and President Xi are expected to partake in an extended meeting at G-20, which many see as a potential market-moving event. Although many analysts aren’t expecting a swift resolution to the trade dispute this weekend, there is still optimism that progress can be made.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.17%, 2,945.35
Nasdaq, -0.07%, 7,723.02
Nikkei Futures, +0.13%, 21,285.99

S&P 500 declined 0.17% on Monday, finishing near session lows in a day that showed little conviction from investors. With big gains already registered in June and the G-20 summit set to begin at the end of the week, the broader market appeared content trading little changed for most of the session.

It was a mixed session with six S&P 500 sectors finishing lower and five finishing higher. The energy sector (-0.9%) gave back some of its gains from last week, while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) was dragged lower by many stocks within the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 41.67, -0.65, -1.5%). The materials (+0.5%), consumer staples (+0.3%), and information technology (+0.2%) sectors provided offsetting support.

The Week Ahead, Trade Opportunities

Trade Opportunity: Gold – Broken out above resistance at 1365 – 1375

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading

XAUUSD (Gold) Weekly Candlesticks & Ichimoku Chart – LONG

Gold have broken out decisively on the weekly charts above resistance at 1365 – 1375. With most of the major central banks dovish and ready to inject stimulus, hard assets will continue to do well against fiat money. Buy on dips is the mode to be in!

Vee, our Founder/CIO highlights patterns/formations on selected chart(s) every week which may have the potential to turn into trading opportunities. These charts are first sent out on Monday of the week to members subscribed to THE LONG & SHORT OF IT, which helps you to filter out the noise and condense only what’s important in the markets for the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd

Market Summary

2 Min Market Summary : 24th June 2019

Posted on by TrackRecord Trading
CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon, Jun 24th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.42%, 96.22
USDJPY, -0.00%, $107.31
EURUSD, +0.64%, $1.1368
GBPUSD, +0.26%, $1.2742
USDCAD, +0.29%, $1.3223
AUDUSD, +0.04%, $0.6924
NZDUSD, +0.10%, $0.6589

U.S. Treasuries backtracked from their best levels of the year, driving yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased six basis points to 1.78%, and the 10-yr yield increased seven basis points to 2.07%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.42% to 96.22.

After Iran shot down a U.S. military drone on Thursday, Trump said he ordered a retaliatory strike on Tehran but scrapped the plans ten minutes prior to launch. Trump said he didn’t think the damage inflicted would have been proportional to shooting down an unmanned drone.

Separately in trade, Reuters reported that the Department of Commerce barred several more Chinese supercomputing companies from purchasing parts from U.S. companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 0.7%. The news provided mixed signals ahead of planned talks with China next week. Earlier in the day, Vice President Mike Pence canceled a Monday speech that was expected to carry a hawkish tone, suggesting that the U.S. did not want to upset Beijing before the G-20 summit.

Energy stocks continued to benefit from higher oil prices ($57.37/bbl, +$0.25, +0.4%) and also from an explosion at the East Coast’s largest refinery on Friday. The move in oil wasn’t that noticeable, especially considering it was only a fraction of its 9% weekly gain, but the underlying geopolitical driver had some investors feeling cautious.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.13%, 2,950.46
Nasdaq, -0.12%, 7,728.78
Nikkei Futures, -0.98%, 21,190.0

Stock market finished slightly lower on this quadruple-witching expiration Friday, as it cooled off from a big stretch of gains. The S&P 500 declined 0.13%, but it did set a new intraday high (2964.63) and finished the week higher by 2.2%. It was a tight-ranged session with neither buyers nor sellers showing much conviction. Indications that the Fed and other central banks are leaning more dovish remained a measure of support for equities, which contributed to a flattish session instead of a pullback.

The S&P 500 energy (+0.8%), utilities (+0.5%), health care (+0.4%), and communication services (+0.4%) sectors were today’s best performers. The real estate (-1.1%), industrials (-0.5%), and information technology (-0.5%) sectors trailed the pack.