CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon Aug 5th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.30%, 98.07  
USDJPY, -0.78%, $106.59
EURUSD, +0.27%, $1.1109
GBPUSD, +0.25%, $1.2155
USDCAD, -0.03%, $1.3206
AUDUSD, -0.01%, $0.6800
NZDUSD, -0.16%, $0.6542

U.S. July’s Employment Situation Report didn’t produce much interest. The data came mostly in-line with expectations, and some speculated whether the trade uncertainty would slow down the pace of U.S. hiring activity or wage growth. Non-Farm payrolls increased 164,000 (consensus 160,000), which coincided with decent wage growth and an unemployment rate that stayed near a 50-year low. It was a good report in aggregate, which means it didn’t offer enough bad news to convince the Fed that it needs to cut the fed funds rate again in September.

The final July reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment checked in at 98.4 (consensus 98.6) versus the preliminary reading of 98.2 and the final June reading of 98.2. The economic uncertainty and trade uncertainty that has bothered the Fed has yet to bother the consumer in a noticeably adverse way.

U.S. Treasuries continued to see increased demand, which pushed yields lower in a curve-flattening trade. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.71%, and the 10-yr yield declined four basis points to 1.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 98.07.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.73%, 2,932.05
Nasdaq, -1.32%, 8,004.07
Nikkei Futures, -2.28%, 21,010.0

Most of Friday’s decline took place in the first 90 minutes of action. Each of the major averages fell below their 50-day moving averages, which appeared to welcome a buy-the-dip mentality that abated the early selling pressure. The Russell 2000 was the only major U.S. index that closed below the key technical level.

The S&P 500 information technology (-1.7%) and energy (-1.3%) sectors led today’s decline, with the latter unable to benefit from the rebound in oil ($55.74/bbl, +$1.75, +3.2%). The defensive-oriented real estate (+0.8%), consumer staples (+0.1%), and utilities (+0.1%) sectors were the lone sectors that finished higher.

In earnings news, Dow components Chevron (CVX 120.73, -0.01, unch)and Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.75, -0.71, -1.0%)provided mixed results. Square (SQ 69.60, -11.38, -14.1%)and NetApp (NTAP 46.04, -11.67, -20.2%)issued disappointing guidance. Newell Brands (NWL 15.34, +1.91, +14.2%)and Pinterest (PINS 33.57, +5.27, +18.6% )provided upbeat results and guidance.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri Aug 2nd, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.19%, 98.42  
USDJPY, -1.21%, $107.43
EURUSD, +0.03%, $1.1079
GBPUSD, -0.29%, $1.2124
USDCAD, +0.15%, $1.3211
AUDUSD, -0.63%, $0.6802
NZDUSD, -0.08%, $0.6553

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for July checked in at 51.2% (consensus 51.9%) after crossing at 51.7% in June. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the July reading indicates slower growth in the manufacturing sector. The July reading is the lowest level since August 2016. Total construction spending declined 1.3% in June (consensus +0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% decline (from -0.8%) in May. This was the second straight monthly decline and the third straight year-over-year decline in construction spending, which is something that hasn’t been seen since 2011.

In trade, Trump on Thursday moved to impose a 10% tariff on a remaining US$300 billion list of Chinese imports starting Sept. 1, after U.S. and Chinese negotiators failed to kickstart trade talks.“Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10per cent on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25per cent,” Trump tweeted. The IMF has warned that tariffs already in place will shave 0.2% off global economic output in 2020.

Economic growth concerns were made most apparent in the steep drop in U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices ($53.99/bbl, -$4.39, -7.5%), both of which had already been on the decline in the wake of the Fed’s rate cut yesterday. The 2-yr yield dropped 16 basis points to 1.72%, and the 10-yr yield dropped 13 basis points to 1.89%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.19% to 98.42.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.90%, 2,953.56
Nasdaq, -0.61%, 7,801.15
Nikkei Futures, -2.17%, 21,083.0

Stock market gave up a healthy lead and finished noticeably lower on Thursday after Trump announced a 10% tariff rate on another $300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1. The S&P 500 had nearly recovered all its losses from Wednesday, but renewed growth and trade concerns left the benchmark index down 0.9% for the session.

Concerns that trade tensions would undercut corporate earnings prospects were evident in the following groups: The S&P 500 industrials sector (-2.0%), which is home to many transportation companies with foreign business;Apple (AAPL 208.43, -4.61, -2.2%), which previously had some of its high-growth products except from tariffs; and the semiconductor stocks, many of which derive a large of portion of their revenue from China.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu Aug 1st, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.57%, 98.61  
USDJPY, +0.19%, $108.82
EURUSD, -0.75%, $1.1071
GBPUSD, +0.02%, $1.2154
USDCAD, +0.36%, $1.3196
AUDUSD, -0.39%, $0.6845
NZDUSD, -0.94%, $0.6551

U.S. The July Chicago PMI came in at 44.4 consensus 50.5), slipping further into contraction territory after coming in at 49.7 in June. A reading below 50.0 denotes a contraction.

In FOMC, the Fed cited economic uncertainties and inflation levels that were running below its target for its rate decision. Two voting members (George and Rosengren), however, did dissent to the rate cut, preferring to keep rates unchanged. The Fed also noted that it will end its balance sheet reduction efforts in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

The directive stirred some volatility in the market, but Fed Chair Powell’s ensuing press conference then caused the real volatility after he used phrases like “insurance” and “mid-cycle adjustment” to describe the Fed’s first rate cut since 2008. Stocks fell sharply before the Fed Chair abated selling pressure by saying that his description didn’t mean “just one rate cut.” Powell’s clarification wasn’t enough to completely ease investors, though. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, including noticeable declines in the consumer staples (-2.0%), materials (-1.5%), and information technology (-1.5%) sectors.

U.S. Treasuries also experienced noticeable movements, ultimately flattening the yield curve by session’s end. The 2-yr yield, which touched 1.80% prior to the press conference, finished three basis points higher to 1.88%. The 10-yr yield finished near its lows, declining four basis points to 2.02%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.57% to 98.61. WTI crude increased 0.6% to $58.38/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -1.09%, 2,980.38
Nasdaq, -1.30%, 7,848.78
Nikkei Futures, -1.53%, 21,328.0

S&P 500 fell as much as 1.8% on Wednesday after Powell indicated that the July rate cut was not the start of an easing cycle. Stocks did rally off lows, though, after Powell quickly suggested that policy could still accommodate another cut if necessary. The S&P 500 finished lower by 1.09%.

Prior to the Fed’s decision to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% to 2.25%, there wasn’t much conviction from buyers or sellers in the market. The major indices traded marginally higher, mainly supported by the positive price action in Apple (AAPL 213.04, +4.26, +2.0%) following its results and guidance.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Wed Jul 31st, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.03%, 98.05  
USDJPY, -0.26%, $108.57
EURUSD, +0.13%, $1.1157
GBPUSD, -0.48%, $1.2158
USDCAD, -0.14%, $1.3147
AUDUSD, -0.34%, $0.6874
NZDUSD, -0.18%, $0.6617

U.S. Personal income increased 0.4% (consensus 0.4%) while personal spending rose 0.3% (consensus 0.3%) m/m in June. The PCE Price Index was up 0.1%, as expected, and the core PCE price Index, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.2%, also as expected. On a yr/yr basis, the PCE Price Index held steady at 1.4% while the core PCE Price Index edged up to 1.6% from 1.5% in May. The report contained decent consumer data and tame inflation data, which is not all that surprising relative to recent data seen of late.

U.S. Treasuries finished slightly lower in another muted session. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point each to 1.85% and 2.06%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished lower at 98.05.

In FOMC, the Fed is certain to slash rates later today. The question is whether it will cut by a typical 25bps or a more aggressive 50bps.Markets still assign a ~20% chance for the latter. Since more easing is priced in than the Fed is likely to deliver, the knee-jerk reaction in the Dollar may be higher. Whether that surge is sustained though, will depend on the signals policymakers send about the pace and depth of future cuts.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.26%, 3,013.18
Nasdaq, -0.46%, 7,952.47
Nikkei Futures, -0.31%, 21,503.0

The stock market wavered mostly in negative territory on Tuesday, leaving the S&P 500 (-0.26%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%), and Nasdaq (-0.46%) with slight losses. The final standings reflected a mixed session with five S&P 500 sectors finishing higher and six sectors finishing lower. The utilities (-0.8%), information technology (-0.7%), and consumer discretionary (-0.7%) sectors underperformed, while the energy (+1.1%), real estate (+0.9%), and materials (+0.6%) sectors finished on top.

In other corporate news, Procter & Gamble (PG 120.41, +4.41, +3.8%)and Merck (MRK 83.27, +0.78, +1.0%) pleased investors with their earnings results. Pfizer (PFE 38.79, -2.66)fell 6.4% after the stock was downgraded at both Bank of America/Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Capital One (COF 91.21, -5.71)fell 5.9% after disclosing a data breach that affected over 100 million customers.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Tue Jul 30th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.10%, 98.08  
USDJPY, +0.20%, $108.86
EURUSD, +0.12%, $1.1142
GBPUSD, -1.28%, $1.2217
USDCAD, -0.03%, $1.3166
AUDUSD, -0.11%, $0.6898
NZDUSD, -0.10%, $0.6629

There were no notable U.S. Economic Prints on Monday.

Wells Fargo (WFC 48.28, -1.02, -2.1%) was a notable laggard amid a Wall Street Journal report indicating that the Trump administration plans to make it harder for deeply indebted borrowers to acquire mortgage loans.

U.S. Treasuries finished the session higher, pushing yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points each to 1.84% and 2.06%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished higher at 98.08. WTI crude increased 1.2% to $56.87/bbl.

In Brexit, Sterling has fallen to its lowest level for more than two years as investors react to the escalating no-deal rhetoric of Boris Johnson’s government. Johnson told Scotland’s First Minister, Sturgeon that while he would prefer to negotiate a new exit deal with the EU, Britain would be leaving the bloc on October 31 “come what may”, his office said. Although markets are fearing a no-deal outcome, the path to that scenario won’t occur without a general election which will likely be called in September.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.16%, 3,020.97
Nasdaq, -0.35%, 7,989.08
Nikkei Futures, +0.16%, 21,652.5

S&P 500 lost 0.16% on Monday, slipping from record highs in a lacklustre session. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.35%) and Russell 2000 (-0.6%) both underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) managed to finish higher.

Monday’s session didn’t include much price action, as investors appeared to be waiting for several key events later this week. Some of these events will include the FOMC’s rate decision, U.S.-China trade talks, the July employment report, and Apple’s (AAPL 209.68, +1.94, +0.9%) earnings report. On a related note, Apple’s price target was raised to $235 from $225 at UBS before its results after Tuesday’s close. Apple shares rose on the increased price target, but the broader market was still weighed down by widely-held shares ofAmazon (AMZN 1912.45, -30.60, -1.6%),Facebook (FB 195.94, -3.81, -1.9%), and Alphabet (GOOG 1239.41, -11.00, -0.9%). In turn, the S&P 500 consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and communication services (-0.5%) sectors were among today’s laggards but, like the broader market, finished the session off intraday lows.

Beyond Meat stock (BYND), which has skyrocketed nearly 800% since its IPO in May, fell 12.5% in the extended session of trading on Monday after the stellar rally. The company generated $67.25 million in revenue during the second quarter, up 287.2% year-over-year. Beyond Meat’s earnings handily beat the Wall Street estimate of $52.7 million. Excluding certain one-time items, the company lost $0.24 per share. This loss is much worse than analysts’ estimate for a loss of $0.08 per share. The big miss is the main reason BYND stock tanked after-hours.

Separately, Mylan N.V. (MYL 20.78, +2.32, +12.6%)agreed to combine with Pfizer’s (PFE 41.45, -1.64, -3.8%)off-patent drug business, giving Mylan shareholders 43% of the combined company. On a related note, Mylan N.V. beat top and bottom-line estimates; Pfizer beat earnings estimates but missed revenue estimates.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Mon Jul 29th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.11%, 97.90  
USDJPY, +0.04%, $108.67
EURUSD, -0.18%, $1.1127
GBPUSD, -0.57%, $1.2383
USDCAD, +0.05%, $1.3167
AUDUSD, -0.59%, $0.6910
NZDUSD, -0.44%, $0.6635

U.S. advance estimate for second-quarter GDP increased 2.1% (consensus 1.8%), which did mark a modest slowdown from last quarter but not as much as expected due to strong consumer spending. The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed some impressive strength in the U.S. consumer, evidenced by the 4.3% growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which was the second highest over the past 16 quarters.

U.S. Treasuries finished the session with slight losses, pushing yields higher. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.87%, and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point to 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.11% to 97.90. WTI crude increased 0.3% to $56.19/bbl.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.74%, 3,025.86
Nasdaq, +1.10%, 8,016.95
Nikkei Futures, +0.01%, 21,600.0

The stock market wrapped up the week on a high note, as upbeat results from Alphabet (GOOG 1250.41, +118.29, +10.5%)and encouraging Q2 GDP data helped lift the S&P 500 (+0.74%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%) to record closes. The Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased just 0.2%.

Friday’s session, much like in the days before, included its fair share of better-than-expected earnings reports. Alphabet gets the lead due to its mega-cap status, but honorable mentions include Starbucks (SBUX 99.11, +8.13, +8.9%)and Twitter (TWTR 41.80, +3.68, +9.7%). Dow components Intel (INTC 51.59, -0.57, -1.1%) and McDonald’s (MCD 215.58, +1.14, +0.5%)underperformed despite positive results.

The S&P 500 communication services sector (+3.3%), which is home to Alphabet and Twitter, nearly tripled the advance in the runner-up consumer staples sector (+1.2%). Laggards included energy (-0.5%) and industrials (-0.2%), although losses were modest. Amazon (AMZN 1942.70, -31.22, -1.6%) was also left out of the advance after the company missed profit estimates and guided Q3 operating income below expectations.

In corporate news, Intel confirmed that Apple (AAPL 207.74, +0.72, +0.4%)will acquire most of its smartphone modem chip business for $1 billion.3M (MMM 173.98, -4.15, -2.3%)disclosed an internal investigation to determine if its expenditures may have violated the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The Department of Justice approved the merger between T-Mobile US (TMUS 84.25, +4.34, +5.4%)and Sprint (S 7.99, +0.55, +7.4%).

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Fri Jul 26th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index +0.06%, 97.79  
USDJPY, +0.40%, $108.62
EURUSD, +0.05%, $1.1147
GBPUSD, -0.20%, $1.2455
USDCAD, +0.15%, $1.3160
AUDUSD, -0.32%, $0.6952
NZDUSD, -0.52%, $0.6663

In U.S. New orders for durable goods jumped 2.0% m/m in June (consensus 0.8%). Excluding transportation, new orders rose a healthy 1.2% (consensus 0.2%). Treasuries started the day on their highs, but backtracked after the release of a stronger than expected Durable Orders report for June. Yesterday’s $32 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction was received with soft demand, representing the third consecutive weak note auction. The 10-yr yield rose two basis points to 2.07%. U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.06%, at $97.79.

The European Central Bank revamped its interest rate guidance on Thursday and asked its staff to prepare options for more policy easing, explicitly opening the door to a rate cut as well as more bond buying as soon as September.

In a statement, the ECB said it was “determined to act” to prop up inflation rates that have persistently undershot the central bank’s target of just below 2%, which the economic slowdown puts further out of reach. It said it was expecting to keep its key interest rate at minus 0.4% or lower through the first half of 2020.The economic outlook “is getting worse and worse,” especially in manufacturing, Draghi said at a press conference on Thursday. “Basically we don’t like what we see on the inflation front.”

The ECB said it had asked staff committees to examine policy options including the possible design of a new bond-buying program. It has previously used such language to signal that fresh action is imminent. Investors initially cheered the news, sending bond prices up and some yields to fresh lows, while also lifting European bank stocks and selling the euro. But those moves all reversed as it became clear that Draghi would present no details of the stimulus package for now.

In a speech on Thursday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA was prepared to provide additional policy stimulus if needed. “On current projections, it will be some time before inflation is comfortably back within the target range,” Lowe said in Sydney. “Whether or not further monetary easing is needed, it is reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates.” The RBA is traditionally seen as reluctant to commit to long-term guidance on policy so Lowe’s reference to an “extended period” was seen as a dovish concession to markets.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, -0.53%, 3,003.67
Nasdaq, -1.01%, 7,929.87
Nikkei Futures, -0.33%, 21,598.0

Stock market ended Thursday near session lows after spending the day in negative territory. The Dow (-0.5%) and S&P 500 (-0.53%) posted comparable losses while the Nasdaq (-1.01%) underperformed throughout the session.

Quarterly earnings were in focus today, and while the market received a fair share of above-consensus results, individual names did not respond nearly as well. For instance,Facebook (FB 200.71, -3.95, -1.9%) beat earnings and revenue expectations, but cautioned that its revenue growth will slow. Similarly, Xilinx (XLNX 127.59, -4.55, -3.4%)beat quarterly estimates, but issued cautious guidance. The stock was among the weakest performers in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-1.7%), which was also pressured by a defensive outlook offered overnight by South Korean manufacturer of RAM and flash memory SK Hynix.

Tesla (TSLA 228.82, -36.06, -13.6%)slid toward its July low after reporting a loss that was three times larger than what analysts had expected. The company also announced that CTO JB Straubel is leaving his role but will continue serving in an advisory capacity.

Elsewhere, industrials (-0.2%) and consumer staples (unch) held slim gains in early trade, but could not stay above their flat lines through the close. Conglomerate 3M (MMM 178.13, -1.29, -0.7%)started with a sharp gain after beating Q2 expectations, but the stock faded from its early high to end near its session low.

CURRENCY MARKET WRAP 

As of Thu Jul 25th, Singapore Time zone UTC+8

Dollar Index -0.02%, 97.68  
USDJPY, -0.03%, $108.18
EURUSD, -0.10%, $1.1142
GBPUSD, +0.35%, $1.2481
USDCAD, +0.04%, $1.3139
AUDUSD, -0.42%, $0.6975
NZDUSD, -0.08%, $0.6698

U.S. Treasury yields finished lower on Wednesday. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.82%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 2.05%. The U.S. Dollar Index was unchanged at 97.72. WTI crude lost 1.4% to $55.93/bbl.

Concerns about the growth environment remain significant after Eurozone and U.S. PMIs came in below expectations. German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 43.1 vs expected 45.1. Europe’s Flash Manufacturing PMI at 46.4 vs expected 47.6. U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.0 vs expected 50.9. The PMI signals a weakening inflation outlook with easing input prices on the industrial side. This has its impact on selling prices as businesses indicate slower inflation from both the industry and service sector side. As inflation pressures decline, the inflation outlook seems to be weakening if anything at the moment.

Later today, the ECB is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged, but is widely anticipated to update its forward guidance to signal some form of easing at its next meeting in September.

STOCK MARKET WRAP 

S&P500, +0.47%, 3,019.56
Nasdaq, +0.70%, 8,010.60
Nikkei Futures, +0.64%, 21,738.0

S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.70%) set new record highs on Wednesday, boosted by out-sized gains in the semiconductor stocks and by shares of companies that beat earnings estimates. The Russell 2000 rose 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, lost 0.3% amid noticeable losses in Boeing (BA 361.43, -11.54, -3.1%) and Caterpillar (CAT 131.91, -6.19, -4.5%) following disappointing earnings reports.

The advance began in the afternoon, as the market began to shake off several early concerns and instead rally around the host of companies that did provide good earnings news. Some of those concerns included the Department of Justice announcing a probe into the “market-leading online platforms,” the weaker-than-expected eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for July, and Caterpillar lowering its full-year EPS guidance.

Notable earnings-related gainers included Visa (V 183.33, +2.43, +1.3%),UPS (UPS 114.39, +9.12, +8.7%), Texas Instruments (TXN 129.00, +8.93, +7.4%), Northrop Grumman (NOC 342.97, +18.98, +5.9%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 777.96, +38.36, +5.2%), and Snap (SNAP 17.61, +2.78, +18.8%). The market’s ability to find support in these companies was encouraging for investors worried about market leadership being too concentrated among a handful of tech giants.

The S&P 500 communication services (+0.9%) and financials (+0.9%) sectors were the day’s best-performing sectors. Semiconductor stocks had a field day, rallying on Texas Instruments’ solid results. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 3.1%, boosting its year-to-date gain to a staggering 40%. Conversely, the consumer staples (-0.6%), real estate (-0.1%), and materials (-0.02%) sectors finished lower.

Separately, for most of the day, the DoJ regulatory threat weighed on shares of Facebook (FB 204.66, +2.30, +1.1%), Amazon (AMZN 2000.81, +6.32, +0.3%), Alphabet (GOOG 1137.81, -8.40, -0.7%), and Apple (AAPL 208.67, -0.17, -0.1%). The FTC also confirmed that Facebook will pay a $5 billion fine for its privacy mishaps, but the stock still rallied heading into its earnings report after the close.