MEMBERS AREA

CIO’S WEEK AHEAD: Can risk assets go lower?

TrackRecord Asia’s CIO, Phan Vee Leung shares his weekly views on the market macro outlook

18 Jul 2022

What happened last week? & What do I think of the Week Ahead?

Summary: 

One interesting thing that we made note of in some of our daily commentaries last week was that although US CPI data surprised to the upside shockingly, (with a selloff in risk assets typically expected after), the markets recoup the losses it made on the day itself and since then, it has continued to trade higher. That’s likely a positive sign that liquidation by investors is over and short-term speculative traders are likely to be short of the market now after the number and if there’s no bad news, the market is likely to creep higher and squeeze these guys for a change which is characteristic of bear markets. When things become very obvious that it should go down to the downside, it tends to squeeze people who come late to the party. So, we are kind of seeing that right now, risk assets are trading stronger. Nasdaq is trading quite positively, Bitcoin is trading above 22,000, Ether is almost at 1,500 now. So we’re seeing a lot of short covering after long periods of bearish news and bearish price action. We could be in a phase of the retracement, so keep an eye on this, keep positioning to the size that is commensurate with your capital and do not over leverage as volatility remains high.

Noteworthy Earnings this Week

Monday: International Business Machines (IBM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Charles Schwab (SCHW)

Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Volvo (VLVLY)

Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Nasdaq (NDAQ), United Airlines Holdings (UAL)

Thursday: Alaska Air Group (ALK), American Airlines Group (AAL), AT&T (T), Dow (DOW), Nokia (NOK)

Friday: Twitter (TWTR), American Express (AXP), Verizon Communications (VZ)

Trades in our Portfolio

The following is the list of our current biases on positions.

Currencies Bias

EUR – EUR tested the support at parity and failed to hold below that level. As such, it is recovering from the lows, but the reasons for it to go much lower remains. Stay short and look to add to shorts when momentum on this retracement wanes.

Interest Rates

None.

Equities

Neutral – Stay cautious.

Trade Opportunities of the Week

Ether/USD (ETH/USD) Daily Candle & Ichimoku Cloud Char

Source: tradingview.com

Although there’s hardly any good news in the cryptocurrency sector these days, the ETH has managed to continue its recovery from the lows, and it is now attempting to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance. The rally of recent days is fueled by news that the Ethereum Merge (where the network will change from the energy-intensive Proof of Work consensus mechanism to a more energy-efficient Proof of Stake system) will take place in September. It is still early days yet, but if ETH/USD should trade above the daily Ichimoku Cloud decisively, a new uptrend is likely to begin.

Events to Watch
Monday (18 Jul 2022)  Prev Exp Remarks
6:45 AM NZD Inflation Rate QoQ Q2 1.8% 1.5%
5:00 PM GBP BoE Saunders Speech
8:15 PM CAD Housing Starts JUN 287.3K 266.6K
10:00 PM USD NAHB Housing Market Index JUL 67 66
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM JUN
CNY FDI (YTD) YoY JUN 17.3%
Tuesday (19 Jul 2022)  Prev Exp Remarks
4:00 AM USD Net Long-term TIC Flows MAY $87.7B
9:30 AM AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
10:00 AM AUD RBA Bullock Speech
2:00 PM CHF Balance of Trade JUN CHF2.0B
2:00 PM GBP Unemployment Rate MAY 3.8% 3.8%
2:00 PM GBP Claimant Count Change JUN -19.7K
2:00 PM GBP Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) MAY 6.8% 6.9%
2:00 PM GBP Employment Change APR 177K 170K
5:00 PM EA Construction Output YoY MAY 3%
5:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 8.1% 8.6%
8:30 PM USD Housing Starts JUN 1.549M 1.585M
8:30 PM USD Building Permits JUN 1.695M 1.65M
8:30 PM USD Housing Starts MoM JUN -14.4%
8:30 PM USD Building Permits MoM JUN -7%
11:00 PM GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
Wednesday (20 Jul 2022)  Prev Exp Remarks
2:35 AM USD Fed Brainard Speech
4:30 AM USD API Crude Oil Stock Change 15/JUL 4.762M
7:10 AM AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speech
9:15 AM CNY Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.7%
9:15 AM CNY Loan Prime Rate 5Y JUL 4.45%
2:00 PM DEM PPI MoM JUN 1.6% 1.1%
2:00 PM GBP Inflation Rate YoY JUN 9.1% 9.2%
2:00 PM GBP Inflation Rate MoM JUN 0.7% 0.7%
2:00 PM GBP Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN 5.9% 5.8%
8:30 PM CAD Inflation Rate YoY JUN 7.7% 8.3%
8:30 PM CAD Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN 6.1%
8:30 PM CAD Inflation Rate MoM JUN 1.4% 0.9%
10:00 PM EA Consumer Confidence Flash JUL -23.6 -24.5
10:00 PM USD Existing Home Sales JUN 5.41M 5.38M
10:30 PM USD EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 15/JUL 5.825M
10:30 PM USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 15/JUL 3.254M
Thursday (21 Jul 2022)  Prev Exp Remarks
6:45 AM NZD Balance of Trade JUN NZ$263M
7:50 AM JPY Balance of Trade JUN ¥-2384.7B ¥-1509.7B
7:50 AM JPY Exports YoY JUN 15.8% 17.5%
11:00 AM JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
11:00 AM JPY BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report
7:00 PM TRY TCMB Interest Rate Decision 14%
8:15 PM EA ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0.25%
8:15 PM EA Deposit Facility Rate -0.5% -0.25%
8:30 PM USD Initial Jobless Claims 16/JUL 244K 240K
8:30 PM USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index JUL -3.3 0
8:45 PM EA ECB Press Conference
10:15 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech
Friday (22 Jul 2022)  Prev Exp Remarks
7:00 AM AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 56.2
7:00 AM AUD S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL 52.6
7:01 AM GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence JUL -41 -42
7:30 AM JPY Inflation Rate YoY JUN 2.5%
7:30 AM JPY Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN 2.1% 2.2%
8:30 AM JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 52.7
8:30 AM JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash JUL 54.2
2:00 PM GBP Retail Sales MoM JUN -0.5% -0.4%
2:00 PM GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM JUN -0.7% -0.4%
2:00 PM GBP Retail Sales YoY JUN -4.7% -5.3%
3:30 PM DEM S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 52 51
3:30 PM DEM S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL 52.4 51.3
4:00 PM EA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 52.1 51
4:00 PM EA S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL 53 52
4:30 PM GBP S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 52.8 52
4:30 PM GBP S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash JUL 54.3 53.1
8:30 PM CAD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM MAY 1.3%
8:30 PM CAD Retail Sales MoM MAY 0.9% 1.6%
9:45 PM USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL 52.7 52
9:45 PM USD S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUL 52.3
9:45 PM USD S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL 52.7 52.6

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this material do not constitute a recommendation by TrackRecord Pte. Ltd. that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of TrackRecord Pte. Ltd.